For those of you who missed Team USA's crazy/awesome/lucky draw with England during their first match (like myself, stuck working during the second half), it might interest you to know that the team is sitting in the driver's seat for a trip through the group stage. USA! USA! USA!
(Side note: approximately one paragraph, and the game hasn't even started yet. "USA!" chant No. 1 on the day. Hope you had the "under" on that one.)
So why is this interesting? Well, the way things were supposed to pan out, the USA was supposed to get through after falling to England, then meet Germany in the first knockout round and get crushed. However, in waking up early for this live blog, I caught the end of Germany 0-1 Serbia. Not only do the Germans look vulnerable for the first time in decades, but it looks like the Americans might get Serbia, Ghana, or possibly even Australia. What does that mean? Well, we might be sticking around a lot longer than originally planned!
The ESPN commentator just said it perfectly: this isn't a "must-win" game for the Americans, but it's a "better-not-lose" game. If US Soccer is ready to make The Leap, it all comes down to finishing things against the teams you're supposed to beat. Like, for instance, Slovenia and Algeria.
So why the hell would I ever wake myself up this early for a match against an inferior team? Well, I missed our only guaranteed match against an elite team. And Eastern Europe looks hot today, so you never know.
Let's roll.
-5:00 The Slovenian National Anthem. I was expecting something that sounded more Boratesque.
-3:30 Oh say can you see...
(It just got cold in here.)
-1:50 And the music isn't done for the day! Cue up the vuvuzeelas!
(Note: I did not understand the irrational hatred for these things until now. When you're up this early, the buzzing just grinds into your nerves.)
-:30 Altidore and Findley up front, Torres getting the start in midfield to give the Americans more speed.
:00 And we're off!
:20 Injury to a Slovenian player already after a sketchy challenge by Clint Dempsey. Glad to know he's focused today.
1:30 For the record, I'm not even going to try to identify the Slovenian players. I'd spend half the game trying to figure out the spellings. Seriously.
2:00 Another ugly foul. This one is getting dirty fast.
4:50 Great counterattack, Findley almost broke free. First corner of the game to the Americans.
5:20 Bradley fails to handle the corner, and it's a goal kick. So much for that. Good to see the counterattack this early though--Findley and Altidore are good for at least one that way this morning.
6:40 Free kick into the box for Slovenia, no real challenge to Timmy Howard. Things developing slowly.
9:00 Ladies and gentlemen; the Slovenian coach, Niko Bellic!
9:32 Seriously. Spitting image, right down to the scowl and the jacket. I could see the Slovenian coach smoking a cigarette on the sideline and glaring death at everyone who dares comment on it. Instantly like him.
12:00 I feel cheated. I made the effort to wake up for this game. Early on, it looks like Jozy Altidore didn't.
12:50 Slovenian goal. Shot from just outside the box into the corner. Tim Howard gets caught out of position, he didn't even try to stop it.
14:50 Free kick into the box, the Slovenian keeper punches it away. Ian Darke isn't even making an effort on this guy--he's simply calling him "the Slovenian keeper." High comedy.
16:20 Findley and Altidore get a break, Jozy can't bring in the final pass and The Slovenian Keeper clears it. That's his new official name, so I'm capitalizing it the rest of the way.
17:10 Michael Bradley sails a shot from about 50 yards out. Second time he's missed the net already--it's worth mentioning that he's the coach's son. You normally never see that once you hit high school.
20:00 "Twinkle-toed run from Donovan." Thanks, Ian. That was just etched in stone as Reason #213249 Why Americans Will Never Pick Up Soccer En Masse. Seriously, ESPN, why not spend a little more to get Clive Tyldsley again? Darke is like a homeless man's Tyldsley. I'll never understand this.
21:43 Novakovic breaks free on a free kick, and almost gets to it to poke it past Howard, followed by the Americans getting a few guys into the box and threatening. Very fast-paced game at this point. Americans are setting the tempo, hopefully that'll help with the whole comeback thing.
25:00 Corner to Slovenia. Tim Howard complaining that it stayed in. Luckily, nothing happens off the corner.
26:40 Novakovic is offsides. Not promising, the number of chances the Slovenians are getting. They're playing the Americans' game, and they're playing it better.
27:30 Bradley thinks twice about missing again, passes off to Donovan, who delivers it in to Dempsey who just can't finish. Good development though.
28:50 Howard chases down a set kick to knock it out, saving the corner. Would've loved to see that kind of effort on the goal.
30:40 Half hour in, we have yet to hear any announcer raise their voice. Never good for a soccer match. Even the goal just sort of happened.
32:00 Shot of several American fans. They look pissed to be there. One guy is texting. Passionate people, these are.
34:00 I apologize for the sparseness of the postings, but there is nothing going on. Two teams that play a very patient (read: boring) style. Lots of defenders passing within one another, lots of holding.
35:00 Bostjan Cesar (Slovenian defender) knocks down Jozy Altidore on a run, getting the first booking of the day. Free kick on the right edge for the Americans. Trying to rile myself awake.
35:40 Seven Americans in the box.
36:00 Torres takes a crack at the goal, and The Slovenian Keeper just parries it. Huge save, and a corner.
36:28 Demerit takes a long header, and he just misses by a few feet. No goal, but important signs of life for America. Slovenian player is injured, and being attended to.
38:30 Good break for America again. Donovan steals a pass in the offensive end, finds Findley, and he botches the pass, but it's out for the corner.
39:00 Everyone is confused. Findley getting a yellow card for an aleeged handball, replay shows that it got him in the face. He has to miss the Algeria match. "An absolutely ridiculous decision, one of the stupidest decisions I have ever seen." Maybe Ian Darke isn't all that bad.
(Note from my postgame edit: file that thought under "Obvious Foreshadowing." It will become relevant later.)
40:00 VERY near miss for the American attack. Corner coming. Something's gonna happen here, the announcers are buzzing. As are the vuvuzeelas. D'oh.
40:50 Cherundolo launches a shot from midfield. Replay of the near goal--the Slovenian defender beat Donovan to the ball by maybe a tenth of a second. THAT close to a goal.
41:25 2-0 Slovenia. No offsides. No defense from America, now that you mention it. Ljubijanic beat his marker with little effort, and Howard couldn't sprawl out and interfere. Bob Bradley looks like he owes money that he doesn't have. I should've just fucking slept in.
42:20 The collective American defense today has to equal at least three fourths of a John Shuster. And it might get worse.
43:00 That's devastating. USA was firmly in control of the flow, looked like it was only a matter of time until they equalized. Now, they look like they just got surprise sexed. Does anyone know how to play taps on a vuvuzeela?
44:30 Michael Bradley arguing a free kick, saying he won the ball clean. The replay proves otherwise. Not a great start for him.
45:00 Two minutes of added time.
46:50 The Americans play for the last attack, and fail to do anything off of the long ball. Halftime. Americans down 2-0. What a depressing way to start my day. Hey, at least if we beat Algeria we'll be bowl eligible.
Halftime thoughts: The Americans pooped in the refrigerator that half. An all-around brutal performance. The defense was gawd-awful, Bradley and Dempsey are sloppy, and Altidore, Findley, and Donovan aren't doing enough to make up for it. We've gone from talking about the Americans going deep into the tournament to almost certainly not even advancing out of group play. Halftime grades: Slovenia, B+; USA F; Vuvuzeela Orchestra D-.
45:00 Sure enough, two substitutions for the Americans. Torres and Findley coming out, Dempsey moving to forward, Maurice Edu and Benny Feilhaber coming on. It's worth noting that the only person who ever went by "Benny" to matter is Benny Hill. I don't trust this guy. He's a blue-chipper for the JP Losman All Stars--guys who still go by nicknames that you should stop using when your balls drop. For some reason, these guys are ALWAYS unreliable. You're really gonna trust a guy who still goes by Benny?
46:30 Americans building up an early attack. Slovenian defense is bending but not breaking. The Slovenian Keeper is on his game.
47:00 Ian Darke is desperate. "If they can just get one goal, they can get back in it!"
47:20 And Landon Donovan gets that goal! Great break down the side, great controlled approach, great shot from the side of the goal to put it in. He took it with confidence, and that made all the difference. And before it all, a great long ball. The Slovenian Keeper looked like he'd rather not try and stop that one.
48:30 The only time the Americans have ever come back from a 2-0 halftime defecit to win? 1995, in a friendly with Saudi Arabia. It's been mentioned about a half dozen times now, so I thought you'd need to know.
49:40 Slovenia down to ten men temporarily due to injury, Americans with a free kick in the offensive end.
50:00 Very nearly equalized! Donovan almost put it in off of the free kick, and Onyewu almost tipped it in, too.
50:50 Irony ftw: in this exact stadium, USA blew the final against Brazil last year after leading 2-0 at the half. Could they do the reverse today?
51:40 The defense has to stiffen up here. We've got the momentum, can't afford to let it slip away again.
53:00 Slovenia on the break... now on the attack... nothing of it.
53:40 Another replay of the Donovan goal. That thing was not gonna be stopped. A tracer bullet from point-blank range.
55:50 Counterattack from Slovenia off of an American offensive setup, but Howard collects it at the other end.
57:40 Altidore breaks past his man and is taken down outside the box. No call. Personally, we got hosed on that one.
(Again, postgame edit: obvious foreshadowing)
58:05 Donovan fouled. American free kick, maybe 35 yards out.
58:40 Slovenian defender Kirm hurt. Replay shows Dempsey damn near Suplexing him. To be fair, Kirm took a few shots at him first. Should've been a penalty before anything else.
60:40 Hand ball called on Edu. Free kick from the right side to cross for Slovenia. Punched away by Howard.
62:30 Altidore and Suler tangled up on a long ball, Slovenia free kick. John Harkes is openly questioning the impartiality of the referees.
64:20 Great work by the Americans working the ball down the field to get a chance. Good passing, good use of aerial balls. This is promising--though if they are going to win, they will need to score soon to draw level.
68:10 Altidore taken down on the edge of the box. Yellow card to Marko Suler. Harkes thinks it should be a red. He's not even bothering to fake impartiality. Love it.
(To be fair? It should've been a red. Jozy had gotten around him, and would've had a one on one with the keeper. That's an automatic red card.)
69:25 Donovan to take the kick...
69:40 Altidore ended up with it at the penalty spot falling away: The Slovenian Keeper holds it. Right place at the right time. Dempsey thought he might have got a penalty, too. So close...
71:10 Bizarre sight: Howard with possession bringing the ball out, and no other players on his side of the field.
71:40 Krim goes into the book. Free kick USA, again.
72:00 Felharber with a feeble effort, held. USA has one sub left.
72:30 Jozy wins a throw deep.
73:00 Slovenia going to bring on Pecnik, taking of Ljubiankic. He was the second one to score.
74:00 Dempsey almost scores off of a long throw, and a foul called on USA.
74:30 Another Slovenian booking. Jokic this time. Quite a hard challenge to Donovan. The Slovenians are playing nasty defending their lead.
76:20 Looked like the Americans were about to develop something... unfortunately, Donovan ran out of space.
76:50 Altidore with a long strike, sails it way wide. "13 minutes until I never care about soccer again"--every American.
77:58 Fehlharber with a nice run, lost it outside the box though. We need better.
78:20 Nasty tie up on the sideline for the ball. It's getting physical.
79:00 Herculez Gomez is checking in. Onyewu coming off. An attacker for a defender. Might as well at this point.
80:18 America will finish out in the 3-4-3.
80:32 Good shot by Bradley, saved by Keeper. I like the idea.
81:16 BRADLEY DOES IT! USA DRAWS EVEN! Great play! Altidore took the pass, laid it up for bradley, and he put it in. One of those goals that you knew was going to be scored before it happened. He's turned his game up when it counted after a rocky start--shades of Kobe last night. Score one for nepotism!
82:30 Still almost 10 minutes to play. Anything can happen here. The Americans look to be going for the win, staying with the 3-4-3. Edu is dropping back into a DMF position, not quite as aggressive anymore.
83:50 The clothing won by the American fans is beyond absurd. It's like the 4th of July on acid.
84:18 Altidore taken down outside the box. Free kick. What a finish.
85:00 GOAL! No! Edu called offsides. The replay shows no offsides. The Americans just got royally screwed out of a fantastic win. Bookings have been fouls, sending-offs have been bookings, and now the capstone goal is a shady offsides. The referee today is Koman Coulibaly. He's from Mali. Someone get his home address on the Internet.
85:40 Gomez taken down outside the box.
85:55 The replay shows that Michael Bradley was fouled on the play. So it should have been a penalty. But not, because the goal should have counted! Unbelievable.
86:25 "I can speak as a neutral Englishman, the referee has been a nightmare."--Ian Darke
86:50 Slovenia on the attack. How much you want to bet that they get a shady penalty here?
87:30 Howard holds the header from the Slovenian striker. Quick response from the Americans, they are attacking again.
88:30 Weak play by Number 6 America. Turnover.
88:40 Long shot punched away by Howard. Here's his trademark "ranting at the defense." He's Dr. Perry Cox with athletic ability.
89:50 American defense holds, play pulled back.
90:11 Again, the replay. Where is the foul?
90:25 Gomez gets a chance, but sails it high.
91:52 3 minutes of added time, by the way. Looks like it's gonna be 2-2. Come on guys, let's pull it together! We've got another minute to get another goal chopped off!
92:30 Dempsey going down after stepping on the ball. Replay looks painful.
93:24 Slovenia going to substitute with a player injured.
94:00 Final whistle blows. Outrage. To cap it off, the injury time in extra time wasn't even added on--seems like the refs were trying to get Slovenia out of there with the point. From Bill Simmons, via Twitter: "'The goal has been disallowed!' Who else had 'Victory' flashbacks? When NBA refs screw up at least they make makeup calls. Not in soccer."
Final thoughts: There is nothing worse than being robbed by the referees. Especially after a great comeback like that. The draw keeps the USA alive, but it doesn't look good. Alexei Lalas just put it pretty well: it's a disgrace. On the bright side, as I stated in the introduction, this wasn't a must-win game: it was a must-not-lose game. And with their dominant second half, the Americans managed that. Still, you'd rather see them controlling their own destiny--even if it looks good, you're still relying quite a bit on other results.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Farewell, Liver, We Hardly Knew Ye: The Definitive 2010 World Cup Drinking Game
In case you were unaware, the 2010 World Cup begins Friday morning. For soccer fans, the next several weeks will be like the Olympics on crack. Like the NCAA Tournament on steroids. Like the Super Bowl methed out of it's mind. Okay, maybe I need to stop making these sport-drug comparisons.
But at any rate, even if you're a non-soccer fan, the next several weeks will consist of pretending to know what "offsides" means and caring about whether Team USA can realize their destiny of taking soccer in America to new heights (spoiler alert: it's not gonna happen). It's like a one-sport Olympics. And if we can get behind curling and short-track speed skating in the name of nationalism, why the fuck not soccer?
I'd like to see every American give the World Cup a shot. And I'm doing my part by making it easier for my target demographic to enjoy soccer--by pre-mixing it with a metric fuckton of alcohol. We love sports, we love drinking, and we love kicking the living shit out of other countries. So it is my pleasure to present to you The Definitive 2010 World Cup Drinking Game.
Before we start, a couple ground rules.
Standard Rules:
But at any rate, even if you're a non-soccer fan, the next several weeks will consist of pretending to know what "offsides" means and caring about whether Team USA can realize their destiny of taking soccer in America to new heights (spoiler alert: it's not gonna happen). It's like a one-sport Olympics. And if we can get behind curling and short-track speed skating in the name of nationalism, why the fuck not soccer?
I'd like to see every American give the World Cup a shot. And I'm doing my part by making it easier for my target demographic to enjoy soccer--by pre-mixing it with a metric fuckton of alcohol. We love sports, we love drinking, and we love kicking the living shit out of other countries. So it is my pleasure to present to you The Definitive 2010 World Cup Drinking Game.
Before we start, a couple ground rules.
- Know your limits. I assume NO responsibility for anything that happens to you if you follow these rules to a T, and don't have the tolerance to handle yourself. Again, know your limits. If you have to alter the rules to better reflect your drinking ability--do it. KNOW YOUR LIMITS. I love my readers, and it would kill me to know that I was responsible for one of their deaths. FOR THE LAST FUCKING TIME, KNOW YOUR LIMITS.
- Remember the point of this exercise: to watch world-class athletic competition and to get hammered. Arguing about the rules, or he said/she said issues gets in the way of both of these. Over the literally thousands of hours of soccer played, there are going to be some missed drinks. Accept this.
- This is one man's list, with heavy influence from a number of other lists. Too many to list here. Know that I wanted to make this thing as glorious as possible--which means it samples heavily from what is already out there. Some of the rules are original, some have already been used in other drinking games. It's not an original concept. That's gonna happen sometimes.
- This list is not finished. Reader input is welcomed. I'm gonna miss stuff, and if it's good, I'd like to include it after the fact. The World Cup happens every 4 years, and I'd like to make this one a recurring theme.
Standard Rules:
- Drink every time the referee blows his whistle.
- Drink once for every goal scored by a striker.
- Drink twice for every goal scored by a midfielder.
- Drink three times for every goal scored by a defender.
- Finish your drink, and shotgun a beer, for every goal scored by a goalie.
- If the goal scored had an assist, drink double.
- Finish your drink for every yellow card, shotgun for every red card.
- Before kickoff, select a side and chug throughout their national anthem.
- Using the same side from kickoff, take a drink for every player over the age of 33 in your starting lineup.
- Using the same side from kickoff, chug every time their captain (the guy with the armband) is in possession of the ball.
- Using the same side, any time that side tries to argue a call with a referee, drink once for every player surrounding the referee.
- If a goal is scored off of a free kick, finish your drink.
- If any games go to a penalty shootout, drink once for every goal conceded by your side from above. Chug until the next kick if your team fails to convert by missing or being stopped.
- Whenever an announcer refers to the World Cup as “the first ever World Cup in Africa” or “A big step for African sports,” finish your drink.
- Drink for any shots of celebrities in the stands. One drink per celeb pointed out.
- A round of shots must be taken after every goal scored by Honduras or New Zealand.
- If you make someone laugh and spill on themselves while drinking, they have to take a shame-shot.
- Whenever the camera shows a shot of a “foreign hottie” in the crowd, the last person to yell “I’d tap that” drinks.
- Drink anytime any goalkeeper is referred to as a “penalty-saving specialist.” Finish your beer if he lets a penalty in within 5 minutes of this.
- Drink twice every time the announcers compare a current player to a former player.
- Finish your drink every time David Beckham’s name is mentioned during setup for a free kick.
- Chug every time an announcer says that this “might be the year for an African team.”
- Drink every time an announcer accuses a player of diving.
- Cliché watch: drink every time Brazil are referred to as “skillful,” Germany “efficient,” England “gutsy,” and Korea “busy.”
- Take a shot every time Cristiano Ronaldo is shown fixing his hair during a stoppage in play.
- Drink every time Ronaldinho makes a completely unnecessary pass.
- Drink every time offsides is called.
- Drink every time political discussion about North Korea comes up during a match. Drink twice if North Korea isn’t even playing.
- Take a shot for every puff piece about corruption or poverty in Africa.
- Drink every time a sub is shown on a warm-up bike.
- Finish your drink if punches are thrown.
- Chug until the streaker is apprehended.
- Drink for any World Cup records broken.
- Drink for any attempts that measure out to 45m or longer.
- Any time Landon Donovan has the ball and the American announcer screams out his name like he is about to do something amazing, the last person to fake an orgasm has to drink.
- Drink every time the American announcer completely ignores a replay of an American player flopping. Drink every time the American announcer goes absolutely ballistic over an opposing player's flop. If the two happen within 5 minutes of each other on the game clock, finish your drink.
- If one US defender passes to another US defender, then the second defender passes back to the first one, take a drink. If the first one then passes to the second one again, take another. Keep going until a third player touches the ball.
- Chug every time a US defender passes back to Tim Howard.
- Any time Landon Donovan’s stint at Everton is mentioned, drink.
- Any time Clint Dempsey’s goal against Juventus is mentioned, drink.
- Every time Tim Howard snaps after a missed shot, take a drink for every defender he goes off on.
- Drink for every shot or mention of Barack Obama.
- Drink until blacked out if USA beats England.
- Any time Jozy Altidore is referred to as “the future of Team USA,” finish your drink.
- Chug if Tim Howard saves a penalty.
- Every time “Kewel” and “Injury” are mentioned in the same sentence, drink.
- Take a shot any time anyone mentions Josh Kennedy looking like Jesus.
- Every time Tommy Oar is called “the next Harry Kewell,” finish your drink.
- If someone refers to the Australian League as a “respectable league,” finish your drink.
- Drink every time Scott McDonald misses a shot. Finish if the announcers defend him as “proficient at club level.”
- Every time Craig Moore touches the ball, the last person to check that they still have both testicles drinks.
- If an opposing player receives three yellow cards before being sent off (again), all alcohol in the building must be consumed within the hour.
- Any time a highlight of Australia vs. Japan in 2006 is shown, drink. If Tim Cahill’s goal is shown, chug until live action resumes.
- Every time someone is described as “The best striker out of Mexico since Hugo Sanchez,” finish your drink.
- Drink whenever Cuahutemoc Blanco tries to bunny hop over someone.
- If watching on the Spanish language channel (which is HIGHLY recommended): drink for as long as the announcer shouts “GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLL!”
- Drink whenever you can see a forward swear in Spanish after he misses. Finish if they actually show the replay and you can hear it.
- Drink every time a Mexican player crosses himself.
- Drink every time the All Blacks are mentioned.
- Drink every time it is brought up that NZ’s last World Cup appearance was in 1982.
- Drink every time New Zealand’s friendly victory over Serbia is mentioned.
- Drink every time Rory Fallon appears on screen, finish your drink if his father is mentioned.
- Drink every time Ryan Nelsen wins an aerial challenge, chug if the announcers then mention him playing for Blackburn.
- Chug everytime a snide remark is made about New Zealand’s chances of competing in the World Cup.
- Drink every time New Zealand and Australia are mentioned within the same sentence.
- Any time an announcer mentions Ryan Giggs choosing to play for Wales over England, finish your drink.
- Every time a commentator mentions David Beckham during an England game, the last player to touch their Achilles’ tendon drinks.
- Drink every time the announcers discuss John Terry and the captaincy.
- Every time England’s poor penalty record is noted, drink.
- Drink continuously while Fabio Capello is on screen.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
6/7/2010: The End of an Error
Yesterday, the Milwaukee Brewers finally realized that pencils have erasers. After three-plus years of varying levels of failure, they finally cut ties with the sad-sack Jeff Suppan, costing the team over $10 million for the rest of the season.
To summarize: the team is paying $10 million dollars to Suppan in order for him to do absolutely nothing. And the fans are thrilled about it. So, yes, Soup: you have gotten that bad that paying you $10 million to do nothing is preferable to paying you $12 million to pitch. Not a good sign. It's mildly ironic that such an abortion of a contract would be terminated with 4 months still left on it.
The thing is, Suppan was never that good. When we signed him, the general consensus from Brewer Nation was "This is our big-name savior?" At the time, he was 32 years old and coming off of a successful, but not dominating, stint in St. Louis. It was Suppan's masterful performance in the 2006 NLCS, winning both of his starts, that catapulted him to the forefront of a pretty weak free agent class. Under the new ownership of Mark Attanasio, the team looked both to beef up payroll and show that they were serious about winning. So, inexplicably, they signed Suppan--a journeyman back-end starter who had just so happened to crank it up for two weeks. I instantly granted him provisional access to the Michael Redd All-Stars, for franchise-crushingly bad contracts, pending his suckitude. Now that all is said and done, nobody would argue against his inclusion.
Let's analyze Suppan using a little tool I like to call the Bad Free Agent Signing Checklist. If your favorite team signs a player, just hold him up against the list to see if you should be smiling or queasy.
-The player played out of his shoes on a high-pressure level, which has artificially inflated his value. Check. The difference between $5.5 million a year and $12 million a year for Suppan was his 2006 NLCS MVP award. This is seen far more often in the NBA (Hedo Turkoglu being the best recent example), but the rest of the major sports aren't immune to it.
-The player is just short of his prime and looks ready to make The Leap, but he demands to be paid like he has already made it OR The player is at the tail end of his prime, will most certainly be a shell of his former self by the end of the contract, yet demands to be paid like he will maintain his current level of production forever. Check. Suppan clearly fits the second criteria. How anyone could've thought that he would still be worth eight figures a year at age 35 when the track record of mid-30s pitchers argues against it is beyond me.
-Somehow, the player is in a favorable market that allows him to maximize the cash he can squeeze out of potential suitors. Check. Clearly, the Brewers weren't going to get Dice-K that off-season. So the best remaining options included Suppan, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Gil Meche, Randy Wolf, or Barry Zito. After Zito (who you have to remember was coming off of a MONSTER run with the A's before spontaneously combusting in San Fran), we're talking about a massive drop-off. So the likes of Suppan, Lilly, and Meche were able to turn a weak market into overlarge contracts.
(Note: This phenomenon usually occurs in one of three ways. Either an above average player capitalizes a shallow FA pool like noted above, an above average player capitalizes on a successful run with a successful team to squeeze franchise status and money out of an also-ran (also applicable in the Suppan example), or the converse of the second option: a player establishes himself as the only legitimate player on a shitty team, and leverages that into superstar money (Michael Redd is a painful local example though, on a national scale, Andre Iguodala might be objectively a little bit worse.)
-The team is desperate to be seen doing anything to build a contender. Check. When the past two criteria combine, you KNOW you are in trouble. And in this case, the new owner wanted to distance himself from the old owner, who had spent the better part of 15 years refusing to spend money on ballplayers. The result? The team took one look at the above list of pitchers, said "We don't really like any of them too much but we need to do something, and settled on Suppan. "We know it's a bad decision long-term, but we need something to look good short-term," has never been the justification of a successful investment.
-The player is injury-prone enough to scare the shit out of your team committing so much cash to him--and, in the event that he blows his knee out in 82 places, you would not be shocked. Doesn't apply here--the one positive thing that can still be said about Suppan is that he's durable.
But hey--we signed him for the playoffs! He's an October hero! When this team gets over the top, you all are gonna be damn glad we overpaid for him!
Wait, here's Suppan's line from his start against the Phillies:
3 IP 6H 5R 5ER 2BB 3K 1WP and a series-clinching L
Thanks for the memories, Jeff. Now please give us some of our money back.
(Side note: feel free to measure up players of your choice against the Bad Free Agent Signing Checklist in the Comments section. I'm interested to see how well this thing holds up.)
To summarize: the team is paying $10 million dollars to Suppan in order for him to do absolutely nothing. And the fans are thrilled about it. So, yes, Soup: you have gotten that bad that paying you $10 million to do nothing is preferable to paying you $12 million to pitch. Not a good sign. It's mildly ironic that such an abortion of a contract would be terminated with 4 months still left on it.
The thing is, Suppan was never that good. When we signed him, the general consensus from Brewer Nation was "This is our big-name savior?" At the time, he was 32 years old and coming off of a successful, but not dominating, stint in St. Louis. It was Suppan's masterful performance in the 2006 NLCS, winning both of his starts, that catapulted him to the forefront of a pretty weak free agent class. Under the new ownership of Mark Attanasio, the team looked both to beef up payroll and show that they were serious about winning. So, inexplicably, they signed Suppan--a journeyman back-end starter who had just so happened to crank it up for two weeks. I instantly granted him provisional access to the Michael Redd All-Stars, for franchise-crushingly bad contracts, pending his suckitude. Now that all is said and done, nobody would argue against his inclusion.
Let's analyze Suppan using a little tool I like to call the Bad Free Agent Signing Checklist. If your favorite team signs a player, just hold him up against the list to see if you should be smiling or queasy.
-The player played out of his shoes on a high-pressure level, which has artificially inflated his value. Check. The difference between $5.5 million a year and $12 million a year for Suppan was his 2006 NLCS MVP award. This is seen far more often in the NBA (Hedo Turkoglu being the best recent example), but the rest of the major sports aren't immune to it.
-The player is just short of his prime and looks ready to make The Leap, but he demands to be paid like he has already made it OR The player is at the tail end of his prime, will most certainly be a shell of his former self by the end of the contract, yet demands to be paid like he will maintain his current level of production forever. Check. Suppan clearly fits the second criteria. How anyone could've thought that he would still be worth eight figures a year at age 35 when the track record of mid-30s pitchers argues against it is beyond me.
-Somehow, the player is in a favorable market that allows him to maximize the cash he can squeeze out of potential suitors. Check. Clearly, the Brewers weren't going to get Dice-K that off-season. So the best remaining options included Suppan, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Gil Meche, Randy Wolf, or Barry Zito. After Zito (who you have to remember was coming off of a MONSTER run with the A's before spontaneously combusting in San Fran), we're talking about a massive drop-off. So the likes of Suppan, Lilly, and Meche were able to turn a weak market into overlarge contracts.
(Note: This phenomenon usually occurs in one of three ways. Either an above average player capitalizes a shallow FA pool like noted above, an above average player capitalizes on a successful run with a successful team to squeeze franchise status and money out of an also-ran (also applicable in the Suppan example), or the converse of the second option: a player establishes himself as the only legitimate player on a shitty team, and leverages that into superstar money (Michael Redd is a painful local example though, on a national scale, Andre Iguodala might be objectively a little bit worse.)
-The team is desperate to be seen doing anything to build a contender. Check. When the past two criteria combine, you KNOW you are in trouble. And in this case, the new owner wanted to distance himself from the old owner, who had spent the better part of 15 years refusing to spend money on ballplayers. The result? The team took one look at the above list of pitchers, said "We don't really like any of them too much but we need to do something, and settled on Suppan. "We know it's a bad decision long-term, but we need something to look good short-term," has never been the justification of a successful investment.
-The player is injury-prone enough to scare the shit out of your team committing so much cash to him--and, in the event that he blows his knee out in 82 places, you would not be shocked. Doesn't apply here--the one positive thing that can still be said about Suppan is that he's durable.
But hey--we signed him for the playoffs! He's an October hero! When this team gets over the top, you all are gonna be damn glad we overpaid for him!
Wait, here's Suppan's line from his start against the Phillies:
3 IP 6H 5R 5ER 2BB 3K 1WP and a series-clinching L
Thanks for the memories, Jeff. Now please give us some of our money back.
(Side note: feel free to measure up players of your choice against the Bad Free Agent Signing Checklist in the Comments section. I'm interested to see how well this thing holds up.)
Monday, May 10, 2010
Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe presents The Your Name Here MLB Power Rankings: May Edition (Part I)
Hey, you didn't think I'd let another major sports season slip by without taking the opportunity to arbitrarily rank teams in a slightly different way than everyone else? Of course not! A month into the season, we can look back at some surprises and some not-so-surprises, and pretend that some predictions never happened. You hear me? At no point did I say that I liked the Doug Davis signing!
Anyways,
The Alan Trammell Division
30. Houston
Yipes. I knew that the 2003 National League All-Stars would be bad. Never would have pegged them as this bad. Offensively, they rank dead last in almost every major offensive category. Geoff Blum, Michael Bourn, and Jeff Keppinger are the only Astros with at least 50 at-bats and a .250 batting average. Kaz Matsui, JR Towles, and Lance Berkman both lag behind the Mendoza line. At this point, neither Berkman nor Matsui will even be able to be traded for prospects.
29. Baltimore
I think we can call the Jim Johnson Era a resounding failure. Kinda like Jim Johnson's ERA. Which currently sits at 6.52.
28. Pittsburgh
10-2 in games decided by two runs or less. What does that mean? That they've been getting incredibly lucky. With that incredible luck, they are still three games below .500. Things can only get worse from here.
27. Cleveland
AAAA
26. Arizona
At his current pace, Kelly Johnson will finish the season with 53 home runs. There are only three problems with this projection:
1. It is not 1996.
2. Kelly Johnson's name is not Brady Anderson
3. Kelly Johnson is (presumably) not taking gratuitous amounts of HGH.
25. Kansas City
Dear Zach Greinke: We are truly, truly sorry that a player of your caliber is wasting his time losing 2-1 games for this shitshow of a franchise. Your potential for a contender is simply astounding--instead, you'll be forced to spend the next half decade or so churning out Cy Young-level performances for a team that will not top fourth place in the division. Please don't overcompensate by signing with the Yankees at that point. Love, Baseball fans across the nation.
24. Chicago White Sox
Cut from the same Hitless Wonders cloth as the previously-discussed Astros. Two thirds of their everyday lineup is hitting below .250. The only things keeping them this far up the rankings are Jake Peavy's dominance and Paul Konerko's power.
23. Atlanta
Like some of the other teams listed to this point, the Braves are getting zero production from a large chunk of their lineup. Like some of the other teams listed to this point, the Braves have three starters with an ERA higher than 5.50. But they do have Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and Tommy Hanson. So at least the people of Hotlanta have hope that they'll be back on top of the division in a few years.
22. Washington
Yes, here I am ranking a team with a winning record 22nd. When it's the team picked 30th overall in the pre-season, and their winning record is largely thanks to a league-leading seven one-run wins, excuse me for not being optimistic. As long as Jason Marquis is their number two starter, they aren't sniffing .500 at the end of the year.
Fatally Flawed
21. Seattle
Probably my second-worst preseason prediction: thinking that the M's would be a team to reckon with. Problem? Franklin Gutierrez and Casey Kotchman are tied for the team lead in home runs... with 3 apiece. The team's combined OPS is .638, which is quite craptastic. The silver lining? Doug Fister and Jason Vargas each have 5 quality starts out of 6, and King Felix has 5 of 7. Meanwhile, Brandon League has emerged as one of the best set-up men in the game. If only they could get a lead for him to set up.
20. Chicago Cubs
You'll notice that I've ranked the teams into categories. The "Fatally Flawed" is composed of generally good teams with one glaring, defining weakness. The Mariners couldn't hit. The Cubs can't keep people from hitting. Particularly if Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva can't keep up their uncharacteristically hot starts--and I wouldn't bet on it--they could be in real trouble. And we haven't even touched on the Zambrano debacle.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
A far more extreme version of the Cubs. Ryan Braun is making a legitimate MVP candidacy, Casey McGehee is putting up solid numbers, and of the regulars only Alciedes Escobar's average is below .250. Meanwhile, the pitching staff beyond Yovanni Gallardo and the surprisingly lights-out Carlos Villanueva is otherworldly bad. Trevor Hoffman has 5 saves, 4 blown saves, and an ERA in the double digits. Time to gently take the car keys away.
18. Angels
Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders are straight-up killing this team. A playoff contender for pretty much the past decade, the Angels sit five games below .500, largely because those two starters are a combined 2 for 12 in getting quality starts. The offense, besides Kendry Morales, has been passable, but not good enough. These guys are underachieving, and I'm not entirely sure that they've got the team to turn it around this year. Vladdy Guerrero is long gone, folks.
17. Los Angeles Dodgers
Like their crosstown neighbors, these guys have underwhelmed in April. 14-17, and injured Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcals haven't really helped. Nor has Matt Kemp's regression back to "above average" after a breakout year. Andre Ethier deserves a mention for having an absolutely torrid April, though.
Reports Of Their Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
16. Colorado
Hanging around in a division that seems to have largely inverted preseason expectations. Meaning that there's a good chance that three or four teams might be going down to the wire. Ian Stewart has emerged as a legitimate fantasy threat, much to my dynasty team's delight. Ubaldo Jimenez has emerged as a legitimate All-Star. Jhoulys Chacin looked unhittable in his first two starts. If they can convince Todd Helton that it's 2002 again, a Rocktober revival might be possible. Though that's a pretty big "if." They're a team to watch in the next few years though.
15. Cincinatti
Speaking of my dynasty league, I managed to pick up Mike Leake in the 12th round of our inaugural prospect draft. And so far, he's looking like the best player to skip the minor leagues since John Olerud and Jim Abbott both did it in 1989. The other players since then to attempt the feat? Darren Dreifort and Chan Ho Park both with the '94 Dodgers (both started off good, got overpaid, and stopped caring/being healthy), Ariel Prieto with the '95 A's (also see: Train Wreck), and Xavier Nady in 2000 with the Padres. Improbably, Leake has the Reds in second place in the NL Central.
Now, for the top half of the rankings, you are going to have to wait until tomorrow night. Why, you ask? Because I'm going to need something to plug tomorrow on the radio!
Yes, that's right. My good friend Mike Winski hosts an MLB-themed radio show every Tuesday and Thursday at noon, central time for the UW-Oshkosh radio station, WRST. Tomorrow, I will be on as his guest. If you happen to live in Oshkosh, tune in to 90.3 at noon to listen. If you don't live in Oshkosh, don't worry about being left out--you can still hear by going to the WRST website and clicking the "Listen Now" link in the top right corner. I think they allow call-ins, so feel free to do that.
Until then: enjoy yourself, bitches.
Anyways,
The Alan Trammell Division
30. Houston
Yipes. I knew that the 2003 National League All-Stars would be bad. Never would have pegged them as this bad. Offensively, they rank dead last in almost every major offensive category. Geoff Blum, Michael Bourn, and Jeff Keppinger are the only Astros with at least 50 at-bats and a .250 batting average. Kaz Matsui, JR Towles, and Lance Berkman both lag behind the Mendoza line. At this point, neither Berkman nor Matsui will even be able to be traded for prospects.
29. Baltimore
I think we can call the Jim Johnson Era a resounding failure. Kinda like Jim Johnson's ERA. Which currently sits at 6.52.
28. Pittsburgh
10-2 in games decided by two runs or less. What does that mean? That they've been getting incredibly lucky. With that incredible luck, they are still three games below .500. Things can only get worse from here.
27. Cleveland
AAAA
26. Arizona
At his current pace, Kelly Johnson will finish the season with 53 home runs. There are only three problems with this projection:
1. It is not 1996.
2. Kelly Johnson's name is not Brady Anderson
3. Kelly Johnson is (presumably) not taking gratuitous amounts of HGH.
25. Kansas City
Dear Zach Greinke: We are truly, truly sorry that a player of your caliber is wasting his time losing 2-1 games for this shitshow of a franchise. Your potential for a contender is simply astounding--instead, you'll be forced to spend the next half decade or so churning out Cy Young-level performances for a team that will not top fourth place in the division. Please don't overcompensate by signing with the Yankees at that point. Love, Baseball fans across the nation.
24. Chicago White Sox
Cut from the same Hitless Wonders cloth as the previously-discussed Astros. Two thirds of their everyday lineup is hitting below .250. The only things keeping them this far up the rankings are Jake Peavy's dominance and Paul Konerko's power.
23. Atlanta
Like some of the other teams listed to this point, the Braves are getting zero production from a large chunk of their lineup. Like some of the other teams listed to this point, the Braves have three starters with an ERA higher than 5.50. But they do have Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and Tommy Hanson. So at least the people of Hotlanta have hope that they'll be back on top of the division in a few years.
22. Washington
Yes, here I am ranking a team with a winning record 22nd. When it's the team picked 30th overall in the pre-season, and their winning record is largely thanks to a league-leading seven one-run wins, excuse me for not being optimistic. As long as Jason Marquis is their number two starter, they aren't sniffing .500 at the end of the year.
Fatally Flawed
21. Seattle
Probably my second-worst preseason prediction: thinking that the M's would be a team to reckon with. Problem? Franklin Gutierrez and Casey Kotchman are tied for the team lead in home runs... with 3 apiece. The team's combined OPS is .638, which is quite craptastic. The silver lining? Doug Fister and Jason Vargas each have 5 quality starts out of 6, and King Felix has 5 of 7. Meanwhile, Brandon League has emerged as one of the best set-up men in the game. If only they could get a lead for him to set up.
20. Chicago Cubs
You'll notice that I've ranked the teams into categories. The "Fatally Flawed" is composed of generally good teams with one glaring, defining weakness. The Mariners couldn't hit. The Cubs can't keep people from hitting. Particularly if Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva can't keep up their uncharacteristically hot starts--and I wouldn't bet on it--they could be in real trouble. And we haven't even touched on the Zambrano debacle.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
A far more extreme version of the Cubs. Ryan Braun is making a legitimate MVP candidacy, Casey McGehee is putting up solid numbers, and of the regulars only Alciedes Escobar's average is below .250. Meanwhile, the pitching staff beyond Yovanni Gallardo and the surprisingly lights-out Carlos Villanueva is otherworldly bad. Trevor Hoffman has 5 saves, 4 blown saves, and an ERA in the double digits. Time to gently take the car keys away.
18. Angels
Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders are straight-up killing this team. A playoff contender for pretty much the past decade, the Angels sit five games below .500, largely because those two starters are a combined 2 for 12 in getting quality starts. The offense, besides Kendry Morales, has been passable, but not good enough. These guys are underachieving, and I'm not entirely sure that they've got the team to turn it around this year. Vladdy Guerrero is long gone, folks.
17. Los Angeles Dodgers
Like their crosstown neighbors, these guys have underwhelmed in April. 14-17, and injured Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcals haven't really helped. Nor has Matt Kemp's regression back to "above average" after a breakout year. Andre Ethier deserves a mention for having an absolutely torrid April, though.
Reports Of Their Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
16. Colorado
Hanging around in a division that seems to have largely inverted preseason expectations. Meaning that there's a good chance that three or four teams might be going down to the wire. Ian Stewart has emerged as a legitimate fantasy threat, much to my dynasty team's delight. Ubaldo Jimenez has emerged as a legitimate All-Star. Jhoulys Chacin looked unhittable in his first two starts. If they can convince Todd Helton that it's 2002 again, a Rocktober revival might be possible. Though that's a pretty big "if." They're a team to watch in the next few years though.
15. Cincinatti
Speaking of my dynasty league, I managed to pick up Mike Leake in the 12th round of our inaugural prospect draft. And so far, he's looking like the best player to skip the minor leagues since John Olerud and Jim Abbott both did it in 1989. The other players since then to attempt the feat? Darren Dreifort and Chan Ho Park both with the '94 Dodgers (both started off good, got overpaid, and stopped caring/being healthy), Ariel Prieto with the '95 A's (also see: Train Wreck), and Xavier Nady in 2000 with the Padres. Improbably, Leake has the Reds in second place in the NL Central.
Now, for the top half of the rankings, you are going to have to wait until tomorrow night. Why, you ask? Because I'm going to need something to plug tomorrow on the radio!
Yes, that's right. My good friend Mike Winski hosts an MLB-themed radio show every Tuesday and Thursday at noon, central time for the UW-Oshkosh radio station, WRST. Tomorrow, I will be on as his guest. If you happen to live in Oshkosh, tune in to 90.3 at noon to listen. If you don't live in Oshkosh, don't worry about being left out--you can still hear by going to the WRST website and clicking the "Listen Now" link in the top right corner. I think they allow call-ins, so feel free to do that.
Until then: enjoy yourself, bitches.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
In Defense of Ben
In case you didn't hear, Ben Roethlisberger will be unavailable to Pittsburgh for a minimum of 4 games for being falsely accused of a crime. A few of the first thoughts to pop into my head as a result of this:
-If you can still get decent odds on Baltimore to win the division, jump on it. You know, if gambling is legal where you live.
-There is no right answer when your quarterback choices for at least 25% of the season are Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon, or Charlie Batch. Only varying degrees of wrong.
-Ben is suspended, Santonio Holmes is a Jet, and Willie Parker is a Redskin. At the time of Super Bowl XLIII, those three were the core of Pittsburgh's offense--and 26, 24, and 28 respectively. And while Parker was a little past being "young," he had very little mileage on the odometer. That's the lookings of a five-year dynasty right there, at least. Two years later? Ruined.
And most importantly?
-This suspension is complete and utter bullshit.
And here lies the heart of the issue. If you are male, and the word "rape" is even mentioned in the same breath as your name, you are utterly fucked. Even if you win, you lose. In Ben's case, it has happened twice. Two different women have come forward and accused him of raping them. Neither time led to a charge.
As a 21-year-old who has been in college for three years and can best be described as a "seasoned veteran of the party scene," I consider myself somewhat of an authority on this kind of situation--because it is hardly uncommon. From the police report, it seems that Roethlisberger and the girl in question were both drunk as hell, and decided to bang in the bathroom of the club. Ben's bodyguards stood guard outside--according to the accuser, they were there to make sure the rape went uninterrupted. But let's be real here--a bathroom is a very public place, and the last thing that you want when you're mid-coitus is a door to fly open and a horrified bystander to come in. So if you've got the resources to make sure that doesn't happen--like, say, a couple large guys whose job it is to do just that--you're gonna exploit that. And he did. Nothing wrong with that.
But here's the thing about 20-year-old girls--while there are certainly more than a few who are intelligent, emotionally stable, high-quality women already, the majority (at least that I've had dealings with) are fucked up in some way or another. And it's far more common than you'd think for them to be total attention whores--especially the ones in the "party girl" crowd. As a wise man once said to me, "Girls don't go out looking to have a few drinks, then go home alone." Reports indicated that Ben's accuser was wearing a nametag that said "DTF." (For those of you scratching your head right now, that is a common abbreviation for "down to fuck.") Is this a woman who could potentially be raped? Yes. Is this a woman who could potentially drink herself to the point of having consensual sex that she would later regret, or at least pretend to regret in order to keep up appearances? Yes. Statistically speaking, which one is more likely to happen? From experience, I can safely say that it's the latter.
The problem is, the line between the two is often blurred, especially for women. Men are simply a different species. We are far more blunt and brutally honest with our friends than women are. If a man gets drunk and hooks up with someone he knows he shouldn't have, his friends laugh at him. And rightfully so--he fucked up, did something stupid, and the laughter allows him to realize this and not fuck up next time, or so you'd hope. But it sure as hell works a lot better than the way that women handle these things. Publicly, they sympathize--behind closed doors, they judge. It's happened with friends of mine a couple different times. Girl gets blackout drunk, girl hooks up with a sketchy guy that her alcohol-addled brain fell in love with, girl wakes up sober and realizes she fucked up, girl claims rape to keep herself from looking like a dumb, drunk panty-dropper.
And why not? The way our society and legal system are set up, it's to her advantage to play this way. As soon as the word "rape" is thrown out there, she is instantly shielded from judgment by the protective cloth of "victim." She's not a drunken slut--she is an innocent girl who just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. And it doesn't even matter if the rape claim holds up or not--by the time that happens, it's yesterday's news and she can escape the judgment of her peers.
Furthermore, crying rape can make legal sense. On most college campuses, a woman who comes forward claiming to be raped is immune to being charged with underage drinking. In theory, this allows more victims to come forward, since they won't get in trouble. In practice, this leads to more false claims, since it makes a rape accusation a veritable get-out-of-jail-free card. Roethlisberger's one-night stand (I refuse to call her a "victim") was 20 years old. I do not support the current drinking age in any way, shape, or form--but if you're going to have it, and you're going to have a rape accusation loophole, you BETTER FUCKING MAKE SURE YOU CLOSE THAT LOOPHOLE AS SOON AS "RAPE" IS THROWN OUT OF THE EQUATION. In every case I've seen personally, the girl claiming rape was underage. In every case, the girl in question was drunk as shit. In every case, the girl in question was not ticketed for underage drinking. In the case of Roethlisberger's one-night stand, this also held steady. Diversion successful.
Look, don't get me wrong. I'm not defending rape. Rape is awful--right up there with torture, war, and Michael Bay movies in the category of "Really shitty things in life that everyone would be a hell of a lot happier if we just did away with." True rapists are sick fucks, and deserve to have their cocks burned off with the most painful acid available. But that's the other awful part of the casual false accusations--by falsely crying rape to save your own hide, you are crying wolf for your entire gender. If someone is really raped, now not only do they have to deal with the hell that their life has become as a result, but they have to deal with their peers second-guessing them behind their backs, questioning whether it really happened. And in no way is that alright.
And here's the problem--you don't even need to be convicted of rape in order for it to fuck up your life. Even in being accused of it, you are stigmatized for life. Look at Roethlisberger. He does not have a criminal record. He is not married, and has no family. He had every right to do what he did. If the Steelers want to renegotiate a contract with a "no partying" clause, that's up to them--but as it stands, he didn't do a fucking thing wrong. What he did is what every other male ages 18-30 has done, and what most of them do on a regular basis--capitalize on a generation of women who are historically DTF. In his case, she was even wearing a fucking nametag advertising it. Yet the NFL is suspending him (a suspension which will cost him $3 million, by the way), the media is vilifying him, and pretty much everyone is backlashing out at him with a furor.
Here's the thing. It's clear that something's gotta give for Ben. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Clearly he didn't learn his lesson earlier--that dumb, drunk panty-droppers will do anything, including ruining you personally and professionally, to avoid be branded as such; and that when the man in the case is an NFL superduperstar, you also get famous on top of that! If he isn't a total retard, he'll stop putting himself in those situations. Or at least take a page out of Dave Chappelle's book and make one of his bodyguards carry around a folder of Love Contracts.
But he doesn't deserve to be suspended, or turned into the White Michael Vick. It's not an issue of race. Vick savagely tortured and murdered living beings; Donte Stallworth killed another human while driving drunk; Rae Carruth killed the mother of his unborn child; Pacman Jones... well, the less said about him the better. The fact that these men all happened to be black is a moot point--they all did heinous things that were deserving of punishment. Roethlisberger is a different beast. In fact, the closest comparison to this case does not come from the NFL. Pretty much the same thing happened to Kobe Bryant in 2003. And Kobe had a wife and a baby daughter at the time. And Kobe's case came far closer to actually going to trial. Yet he wasn't suspended, or punshed in any way by the league.
And that's the way this should have gone. Indeed, Ben has some lessons to learn. But suspending him not only does nothing to help those lessons be learned, it validates the acceptance of false rape accusations in our culture. The NFL had a chance to stand up and score a symbolic victory for falsely-accused men everywhere. Instead, they chose to punt on fourth and short.
-If you can still get decent odds on Baltimore to win the division, jump on it. You know, if gambling is legal where you live.
-There is no right answer when your quarterback choices for at least 25% of the season are Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon, or Charlie Batch. Only varying degrees of wrong.
-Ben is suspended, Santonio Holmes is a Jet, and Willie Parker is a Redskin. At the time of Super Bowl XLIII, those three were the core of Pittsburgh's offense--and 26, 24, and 28 respectively. And while Parker was a little past being "young," he had very little mileage on the odometer. That's the lookings of a five-year dynasty right there, at least. Two years later? Ruined.
And most importantly?
-This suspension is complete and utter bullshit.
And here lies the heart of the issue. If you are male, and the word "rape" is even mentioned in the same breath as your name, you are utterly fucked. Even if you win, you lose. In Ben's case, it has happened twice. Two different women have come forward and accused him of raping them. Neither time led to a charge.
As a 21-year-old who has been in college for three years and can best be described as a "seasoned veteran of the party scene," I consider myself somewhat of an authority on this kind of situation--because it is hardly uncommon. From the police report, it seems that Roethlisberger and the girl in question were both drunk as hell, and decided to bang in the bathroom of the club. Ben's bodyguards stood guard outside--according to the accuser, they were there to make sure the rape went uninterrupted. But let's be real here--a bathroom is a very public place, and the last thing that you want when you're mid-coitus is a door to fly open and a horrified bystander to come in. So if you've got the resources to make sure that doesn't happen--like, say, a couple large guys whose job it is to do just that--you're gonna exploit that. And he did. Nothing wrong with that.
But here's the thing about 20-year-old girls--while there are certainly more than a few who are intelligent, emotionally stable, high-quality women already, the majority (at least that I've had dealings with) are fucked up in some way or another. And it's far more common than you'd think for them to be total attention whores--especially the ones in the "party girl" crowd. As a wise man once said to me, "Girls don't go out looking to have a few drinks, then go home alone." Reports indicated that Ben's accuser was wearing a nametag that said "DTF." (For those of you scratching your head right now, that is a common abbreviation for "down to fuck.") Is this a woman who could potentially be raped? Yes. Is this a woman who could potentially drink herself to the point of having consensual sex that she would later regret, or at least pretend to regret in order to keep up appearances? Yes. Statistically speaking, which one is more likely to happen? From experience, I can safely say that it's the latter.
The problem is, the line between the two is often blurred, especially for women. Men are simply a different species. We are far more blunt and brutally honest with our friends than women are. If a man gets drunk and hooks up with someone he knows he shouldn't have, his friends laugh at him. And rightfully so--he fucked up, did something stupid, and the laughter allows him to realize this and not fuck up next time, or so you'd hope. But it sure as hell works a lot better than the way that women handle these things. Publicly, they sympathize--behind closed doors, they judge. It's happened with friends of mine a couple different times. Girl gets blackout drunk, girl hooks up with a sketchy guy that her alcohol-addled brain fell in love with, girl wakes up sober and realizes she fucked up, girl claims rape to keep herself from looking like a dumb, drunk panty-dropper.
And why not? The way our society and legal system are set up, it's to her advantage to play this way. As soon as the word "rape" is thrown out there, she is instantly shielded from judgment by the protective cloth of "victim." She's not a drunken slut--she is an innocent girl who just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. And it doesn't even matter if the rape claim holds up or not--by the time that happens, it's yesterday's news and she can escape the judgment of her peers.
Furthermore, crying rape can make legal sense. On most college campuses, a woman who comes forward claiming to be raped is immune to being charged with underage drinking. In theory, this allows more victims to come forward, since they won't get in trouble. In practice, this leads to more false claims, since it makes a rape accusation a veritable get-out-of-jail-free card. Roethlisberger's one-night stand (I refuse to call her a "victim") was 20 years old. I do not support the current drinking age in any way, shape, or form--but if you're going to have it, and you're going to have a rape accusation loophole, you BETTER FUCKING MAKE SURE YOU CLOSE THAT LOOPHOLE AS SOON AS "RAPE" IS THROWN OUT OF THE EQUATION. In every case I've seen personally, the girl claiming rape was underage. In every case, the girl in question was drunk as shit. In every case, the girl in question was not ticketed for underage drinking. In the case of Roethlisberger's one-night stand, this also held steady. Diversion successful.
Look, don't get me wrong. I'm not defending rape. Rape is awful--right up there with torture, war, and Michael Bay movies in the category of "Really shitty things in life that everyone would be a hell of a lot happier if we just did away with." True rapists are sick fucks, and deserve to have their cocks burned off with the most painful acid available. But that's the other awful part of the casual false accusations--by falsely crying rape to save your own hide, you are crying wolf for your entire gender. If someone is really raped, now not only do they have to deal with the hell that their life has become as a result, but they have to deal with their peers second-guessing them behind their backs, questioning whether it really happened. And in no way is that alright.
And here's the problem--you don't even need to be convicted of rape in order for it to fuck up your life. Even in being accused of it, you are stigmatized for life. Look at Roethlisberger. He does not have a criminal record. He is not married, and has no family. He had every right to do what he did. If the Steelers want to renegotiate a contract with a "no partying" clause, that's up to them--but as it stands, he didn't do a fucking thing wrong. What he did is what every other male ages 18-30 has done, and what most of them do on a regular basis--capitalize on a generation of women who are historically DTF. In his case, she was even wearing a fucking nametag advertising it. Yet the NFL is suspending him (a suspension which will cost him $3 million, by the way), the media is vilifying him, and pretty much everyone is backlashing out at him with a furor.
Here's the thing. It's clear that something's gotta give for Ben. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Clearly he didn't learn his lesson earlier--that dumb, drunk panty-droppers will do anything, including ruining you personally and professionally, to avoid be branded as such; and that when the man in the case is an NFL superduperstar, you also get famous on top of that! If he isn't a total retard, he'll stop putting himself in those situations. Or at least take a page out of Dave Chappelle's book and make one of his bodyguards carry around a folder of Love Contracts.
| Chappelle's Show | ||||
| Love Contract | ||||
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And that's the way this should have gone. Indeed, Ben has some lessons to learn. But suspending him not only does nothing to help those lessons be learned, it validates the acceptance of false rape accusations in our culture. The NFL had a chance to stand up and score a symbolic victory for falsely-accused men everywhere. Instead, they chose to punt on fourth and short.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Random Thoughts: 4/20/10
So I just realized... since the foundation of Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe, this is probably the longest I have gone without an update of some kind, thanks to a perfect storm of school business, other business, attempting to find a real job for this summer (NOTE: If you love this blog enough that you want daily updates, and are willing to sign a contract to pay me several hundred dollars a week to do it, my inbox is awaiting your inquiry), and doing it all while fighting off both a sinus infection and mono. No, I did not up and ragequit after my bracket beatdown, though I'm sure nobody would've blamed me.
So there's a lot going on in this crazy little world. Here's my take.
Baseball, or "Jesus Fuck, the Brewers' bullpen is a pile of shit"
What needs to be said that hasn't already been said in the headline? Trevor Hoffman is surviving on craftiness and luck at this point, his stuff wouldn't land him a job on most AA teams if he auditioned anonymously. LaTroy Hawkins is one step closer to being an overpaid game-choker for every team in the Midwest. The team ERA is 6.06. I know it's not even a month into the season, but again: 6.06! Yes, it's that bad. There is absoultely zero chance that this team is still alive come September unless something changes drastically. Either the guys we have need to stop fucking up, or we need to replace them with guys who will.
That being said, I have been thoroughly enjoying the Casey McGehee era. His .378 BABIP implies that his numbers will soon return somewhat to scale, but he looks like a legit .300-25-75 guy at this point. Thanks, Cubbies!
On the fantasy front: my one-year team, Phillips her Pujols, is sitting in second place despite a jaw-dropping rash of injuries. Casualties to this point include: Brandon Webb, JP Howell, Huston Street, Lance Berkman, Aaron Hill, and Jimmy Rollins. Again, it is April 20th. Thankfully, waiver-wire stopgap Vernon Wells has put together another monster April for one of my teams. It seems to be an April tradition in the Greendale Alumni League--like the July tradition of me acquiring Mark Teixera for 70 cents on the dollar. My first-year dynasty team, Byrnes When I Peavy, is two games over .500 and looking like a trip to the playoffs might be possible once Berkman and Conor Jackson return, and I am no longer forced to play Ty Wigginton at first base. And the less said about my second-year dynasty team, Snakes on John Maine, the better. After collapsing in the last two weeks of the season to choke away a playoff start, the Snakes sit in 14th out of 18 teams. Derek Jeter's continued dominance, Delmon Young's early breakout, and injury returns from Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, and Ben Sheets have done little to douse the putridity that Prince Fielder, Jason Bay, Ichiro, and pretty much my entire pitching staff have been emitting.
Basketball, or "LeBron and Kobe warm up for their inevitable showdown"
Back in March, when I was home for break, I caught a Bucks game, and got the chance to have a few beers afterwards with Dan Hoelzl, one of the head guys of Squad 6. He's an awesome guy, knows the game EXTREMELY well, and is a passionate-as-all-hell fan. I traded e-mails with him, and planned to do an interview for the playoffs. Then Andrew Bogut's arm snapped, everyone settled into "We'll make the playoffs but do jack shit once we're there" mode, and the state's attention moved on to the Brewers. I can still hit him up for a postseason interview if you guys would like--let me know through the comments. Also, potential questions that you'd like to see one of the organizers of Squad 6 answer.
Who do I like in the playoffs? Let's break it down.
West
1. Lakers over 8. Hijackers in 6
I don't see Durant taking the car keys to the West from Kobe quite yet. But I do see the Hijackers stealing a couple games, getting some legit attention, and getting necessary playoff mileage from this.
2. Dallas over 7. San Antonio in 6
The more talented team will win, but the Spurs will find a way to make them work for it. Don't be surprised to see a pooped-out Dallas get shellacked in the second round by...
3. Phoenix over 6. Portland in 5
Steve Nash in possibly his best season, the re-animated corpse of Amare Stoudemire... if anyone is gonna knock off the Lakers, this is it.
5. Utah over 4. Denver in 5
The fact that Chauncey Billups seems hell-bent on taking the big shots instead of Carmelo absolutely kills this team. In a "Mike Brown coaching the Cavs into the ground the past two years" way. If Billups can realize that, this one might go deeper, and Denver might be able to save it.
East
1. Cleveland over 8. Chicago in 4
Headline on the Bulls' team website: "Chicago goes down 2-0 to Cavs, but might have a plan." Might? That's the best you got?
2. Orlando over 7. Charlotte in 4
"Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor" now looks REALLY smart in hindsight.
3. Atlanta over 6. Milwaukee in 5
Game 1: the Bucks got 34 points from Brandon Jennings, and still lost by 10. I can see Jennings and Salmons both getting hot to carry one win, or an abnormally bad night from Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, but that's about it. No way this one goes more than 6 deep.
5. Miami over 4. Boston in 7
The Celts are a beaten team. Just watch them--they want the season to be over now. And I'll let you fill in your own punchline about Rasheed Wallace scoring on his own basket here. Better yet, here's the video:
And on that mention of 'Sheed, I hope you all have a happy 4/20.
So there's a lot going on in this crazy little world. Here's my take.
Baseball, or "Jesus Fuck, the Brewers' bullpen is a pile of shit"
What needs to be said that hasn't already been said in the headline? Trevor Hoffman is surviving on craftiness and luck at this point, his stuff wouldn't land him a job on most AA teams if he auditioned anonymously. LaTroy Hawkins is one step closer to being an overpaid game-choker for every team in the Midwest. The team ERA is 6.06. I know it's not even a month into the season, but again: 6.06! Yes, it's that bad. There is absoultely zero chance that this team is still alive come September unless something changes drastically. Either the guys we have need to stop fucking up, or we need to replace them with guys who will.
That being said, I have been thoroughly enjoying the Casey McGehee era. His .378 BABIP implies that his numbers will soon return somewhat to scale, but he looks like a legit .300-25-75 guy at this point. Thanks, Cubbies!
On the fantasy front: my one-year team, Phillips her Pujols, is sitting in second place despite a jaw-dropping rash of injuries. Casualties to this point include: Brandon Webb, JP Howell, Huston Street, Lance Berkman, Aaron Hill, and Jimmy Rollins. Again, it is April 20th. Thankfully, waiver-wire stopgap Vernon Wells has put together another monster April for one of my teams. It seems to be an April tradition in the Greendale Alumni League--like the July tradition of me acquiring Mark Teixera for 70 cents on the dollar. My first-year dynasty team, Byrnes When I Peavy, is two games over .500 and looking like a trip to the playoffs might be possible once Berkman and Conor Jackson return, and I am no longer forced to play Ty Wigginton at first base. And the less said about my second-year dynasty team, Snakes on John Maine, the better. After collapsing in the last two weeks of the season to choke away a playoff start, the Snakes sit in 14th out of 18 teams. Derek Jeter's continued dominance, Delmon Young's early breakout, and injury returns from Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, and Ben Sheets have done little to douse the putridity that Prince Fielder, Jason Bay, Ichiro, and pretty much my entire pitching staff have been emitting.
Basketball, or "LeBron and Kobe warm up for their inevitable showdown"
Back in March, when I was home for break, I caught a Bucks game, and got the chance to have a few beers afterwards with Dan Hoelzl, one of the head guys of Squad 6. He's an awesome guy, knows the game EXTREMELY well, and is a passionate-as-all-hell fan. I traded e-mails with him, and planned to do an interview for the playoffs. Then Andrew Bogut's arm snapped, everyone settled into "We'll make the playoffs but do jack shit once we're there" mode, and the state's attention moved on to the Brewers. I can still hit him up for a postseason interview if you guys would like--let me know through the comments. Also, potential questions that you'd like to see one of the organizers of Squad 6 answer.
Who do I like in the playoffs? Let's break it down.
West
1. Lakers over 8. Hijackers in 6
I don't see Durant taking the car keys to the West from Kobe quite yet. But I do see the Hijackers stealing a couple games, getting some legit attention, and getting necessary playoff mileage from this.
2. Dallas over 7. San Antonio in 6
The more talented team will win, but the Spurs will find a way to make them work for it. Don't be surprised to see a pooped-out Dallas get shellacked in the second round by...
3. Phoenix over 6. Portland in 5
Steve Nash in possibly his best season, the re-animated corpse of Amare Stoudemire... if anyone is gonna knock off the Lakers, this is it.
5. Utah over 4. Denver in 5
The fact that Chauncey Billups seems hell-bent on taking the big shots instead of Carmelo absolutely kills this team. In a "Mike Brown coaching the Cavs into the ground the past two years" way. If Billups can realize that, this one might go deeper, and Denver might be able to save it.
East
1. Cleveland over 8. Chicago in 4
Headline on the Bulls' team website: "Chicago goes down 2-0 to Cavs, but might have a plan." Might? That's the best you got?
2. Orlando over 7. Charlotte in 4
"Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor" now looks REALLY smart in hindsight.
3. Atlanta over 6. Milwaukee in 5
Game 1: the Bucks got 34 points from Brandon Jennings, and still lost by 10. I can see Jennings and Salmons both getting hot to carry one win, or an abnormally bad night from Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, but that's about it. No way this one goes more than 6 deep.
5. Miami over 4. Boston in 7
The Celts are a beaten team. Just watch them--they want the season to be over now. And I'll let you fill in your own punchline about Rasheed Wallace scoring on his own basket here. Better yet, here's the video:
And on that mention of 'Sheed, I hope you all have a happy 4/20.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Four Regions: A Look Back (or; "A Retarded Monkey and a Dart Board Could've Picked This Sumbitch Better)
So it's been two weeks since I last posted here. In those two weeks, lots of shit has gone down.
-The first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament which, if you've been paying attention, are kind of a big deal to me. If you haven't been paying attention, feel free to look back at the last five or six posts on here to gain some understanding of the context. It's not like I'm going anywhere.
-My spring break. In an ideal world, this would've included me going to, drinking more than any reasonable human being should, admiring the stuffed bikinis on the beach as my girlfriend either looked at me disapprovingly or outright punched me in the balls (depending on where I was on the "Still Able to Check Girls Out Subtly----------Completely Fucking Hammered And 'Subtle' Might As Well Be A Chinese Word" spectrum), yelling at random objects, dancing with random objects, and probably leaving the week with a warrant out for my arrest and at least three types of VD. Since the end of my tenure at my last regular job predates Alciedes Escobar's major-league debut, however, this was not the case. A more realistic summary includes masturbation, watching DVDs of "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" in my underwear, sneaking from my parents' liquor cabinet like it's junior year again, masturbation, furious attempts to find weed in a town that I have zero connections in, masturbation, watching the second weekend of the tournament, going to the Bucks game Wednesday night (since my buddy Pat had an extra ticket), masturbation, sleeping past noon, being reminded by my mom how bad she wants me to move back home after I graduate, and masturbation.
I wish I had a better story for my readers about why I've been neglecting them, but I don't. If it makes you feel any better, tell yourself that I was mauled by a bear and had to go to the emergency room. In fact, I'm going to keep telling myself this, as it is much less depressing than my actual break.
-Yes, the Milwaukee Bucks are still players in the postseason hunt. Yes, the Milwaukee Brewers start their season in less than a week. Yes, these are my two main reasons for living at this point in time. And yes, I should be ashamed of that.
-The second weekend of break, I did manage to make some money doing an actual job, albeit a temporary one. By contrast, I've been writing content for this blog since August--counting research, deleted posts that didn't make the cut of publication, and social marketing, we're talking at least 75 hours of work. And in this one weekend, I made 30 times as much as I have writing. I'm not saying that you HAVE to click on the ads in the right column of this page, but anything that keeps me from having to give blowjobs for beer money is a plus at this point in my life.
(There's a lesson to be made here: if you want to start up a blog, do it--but do it for the right reasons. If you do it because you enjoy writing, because it makes you happy, and because you feel like you can make people laugh/think/pay attention, you are good. If you want to do it to make money, prepare to be disappointed. Realistically, I would probably be financially better off working in a sweatshop in the armpit of the world than doing this for a living. And I am not kidding about that at all.)
If you are hoping for things to get less depressing now that I'm done updating you and moving on to the meat of this post, you might want to click away. There are lots of blogs about unicorns, kittens, and Nazis that will be far more pleasant. Okay, maybe the last one won't. But there has been nothing pleasant about trying to forecast this year's tournament. Since bullet points seem to be in style today,
-I lost three of my Final Four teams in the second fucking round, yet my bracket is still better than 29% of Yahoo entries and 19% of ESPN entries. It goes without saying that I hardly turned in a championship showing this year--but averaging those two out, one-fourth of people did fucking worse!
-My girlfriend had Gonzaga and Marquette--yes, you read that right, Gonzaga and Marquette--in the Final Four, and is still in 5th place in her entire dorm's Bracket Challenge (for context: we're talking about a 10-story dorm, free entry, and cheesy prizes for the winners).
-In short, as the alternate title of this thing says: a retarded monkey and a dart board could've done a better than average job of picking this year's bracket. Several billion dollars of wasted productivity, and lots of failure to show for it. Bravo, America.
That being said, I'm not doing separate posts for each region this time around. Everything is in one place. But we're going to look back at what went right (not a lot), what went wrong (a metric fuckton of stuff), and what we can learn from it (if my bookie comes up to you and asks if you've seen me, the correct answer is "I think he moved to Brazil, dude").
Midwest Region
I overrated: The easy answer here is obviously Kansas. Has a majority-vote champion ever fallen so flat? We all thought that their depth would be their strength--instead, the converse turned out to be true. Their lack of an Alpha Dog, someone who could step up and say "Okay, there is no fucking way we are losing this game," was what killed them. Ali Farokhmanesh had that mentality for Northern Iowa: "Okay, this is my senior year and if we lose, my career is over. We're not going to lose. Period. If it kills me, we will win this game." Again, this is why I love senior-heavy mid-majors to overachieve in the tournament--the experience is nice, but a majority of these guys have no future playing the game or, if they have a future, it's in a place like Turkmenistan. Desperation brings out the best in the human spirit. With one title under their belts already and a fat NBA paycheck in each of their futures, do you think Sherron Collins or Cole Aldrich really cared about that game to the point that Farokhmanesh or Jordan Eglseder did? For the first two, in the grand scheme of things, it's a blip in the radar. For the last two, that game was literally the defining 40 minutes of their lives, win or lose.
I underrated: Michigan State. From a gambling perspective, I am terrified of the Michigan State-Butler game. It's like a collision course of "Nobody believed in us!" Everyone wrote MSU off after the Kalin Lucas injury--yet they overcame Northern Iowa's Cinderella power and survived a brawl with Tennessee. These guys are gelling at exactly the right time.
I properly rated: San Diego State. What does that say about this year's tournament that one of my four regional "most properly rated" titles goes to a team that I correctly said was a stupid upset pick even as they were being heralded as a sexy upset pick? I quit.
Interesting Fact: Ohio State was the only team to make it to the second weekend who was supposed to.
Another Interesting Fact: Georgetown sucks. They really, really, suck. Hard. If I was Austin Freeman, I would think long and hard before declaring for the NBA Draft. And if I was a sports agent Freeman wanted to hire in the event that he does declare, I would think long and hard about whether I wanted to spend this summer negotiating with Turkish League or Italian League teams.
Now Class, What Did We Learn? We learned that talented seniors with nothing to lose are to be feared, heavily. We learned that Bruce Pearl and Tom Izzo know how to get the most from their teams in March. We learned that teams without a clearly defined go-to guy crumble in close games. In other words, we learned absolutely no new information. I will no proceed to bang my head on the wall repeatedly. To the girls in the apartment next door, I'm sorry for the noise.
West Region
I overrated: BYU. I thought their three-point shooting would be enough to carry them to an upset over K-State. However, when you only attempt 16 threes over the course of the game, that's just not gonna happen. How do you not come out gunning from long range when you're the top three-point percentage team in the nation, and a hot hand from three blew away Florida in the second overtime of Round One?
I underrated: Xavier. Jordan Crawford is the real deal. Like "if I was an NBA scout for a lottery team, I would be watching every existing piece of footage on this kid" real. His and Jacob Pullen's double-overtime duel Thursday night is an early contender for Sports Moment of 2010.
I properly rated: Murray State. Very few opportunities for bragging rights with my bracket this year, but here's one of them: I nailed this one, bitches! Suck it, world!
Okay, now that we're done with that, enjoy this clip of the first (and most awesome) buzzer-beater of the tournament. The best part comes at the 23 second mark: three benchwarming ginger kids who all look like they just watched their parents get murdered.
That was fun.
Theory of the Day, Supported By Incontrovertible Evidence: The fact that Jacob Pullen's first name isn't "Richard" is proof that his parents have no sense of humor. I'm sorry, the "Pullen It Off" puns just don't cut it for me.
Most Gawd-Awful Coach of the Touranment: Dave Rose, BYU. How the FUCK do you only shoot 16 threes against a 2-seed when that's your team's strength? Doesn't airing it out give you the best chance to win? Didn't Jimmer Fredette have actual NBA Jam-style flames shooting out of his head during the second overtime of the Florida game? Rose seemed more concerned with holding down the margin of defeat than making any kind of effort to pursue victory. You owe your team better, Dave.
Now Class, What Did We Learn? Alpha Dog vs. Alpha Dog battles during prime-time television make for March memories. If you were in a pool with a Butler alum, you probably lost. Vermont would've been at least 10 points closer if TJ Sorrentine was sitting courtside for the game. Never, ever, back a 'fraidy-cat coach in an upset bid. The Big East sucked a fat one this year.
East Region
I overrated: Wisconsin. In order for them to exploit a perfect matchup against Kentucky, they would've actually had to... get to Kentucky. Instead? Wofford almost pulled the upset, before handing away the game in the final minutes. Then Cornell blew them off the court. I didn't know it was possible to have a "trap game" when you're not even playing--but Cornell-Wisconsin definitely qualified as a trap game in my bracket.
I underrated: Washington. The best-kept secret of the tournament is that the most superbly-played game so far happened in the first round: Marquette-Washington. Both teams shot over 50%, both teams shot over 60% from three, both teams had four players in double digits, came down to a buzzer-beater from Calvin Pondexter... if you love watching basketball, you loved that game. Both of those teams deserved to be in the Sweet Sixteen.
I properly rated: Kentucky. Sure, they are four talented freshmen. But at the end of the day, four freshmen playing for their draft prospects is not a good game plan to get to the Final Four. I told you all that their inexperience in close games would haunt them. I knew that they would run away to a few huge wins early (29 points over ETSU, 30 points over Wake Forest, 15 points over Cornell), but that when they faced a team that could stay in the game, they would melt down. I just missed the boat on which team would force said meltdown.
Most Gawd-Awful Coach of the Tournament Award, Honorable Mention: A well-trained monkey could've taken Rick Barnes' collection of All-Americans to the Sweet Sixteen. He's either the college version of Chris Wallace (taking all the best high school players who will never be good college players) or Mike Dunleavy (taking gifted teams and careening them into a lightpole). The fact that all three of the above are still employed is a crying shame.
Reason (Rick Barnes Won't Give The Media) For Texas' Epic Late-Season Collapse: It's a recession, guys. We had to cut payroll this year.
Best Example of Life Imitating Art in Sports History: Kentucky Basketball vs. Ricky Bobby. Either they win, or they crash the car. If they're not first, they're last. Also, most of them will not obtain a college degree, like Ricky.
Now Class, What Did We Learn? Don't overlook a bad second-round matchup because you love a team's thrid-round matchup. A great team will always outperform a collection of great players. Darington Hobson should start looking for affordable apartments in the Czech Republic. Just because a team steamrolled their last opponent doesn't make them a guarantee to beat the next one. Just because it didn't count on the scoreboard doesn't make it awesome:
South Region
I overrated: The Big East. At this point, I wouldn't pick Villanova to make the final of the NIT, much less the real tournament. And I'm seriously considering deleting the entire Luke Harangody section out of the Tournament Manifesto 2.0. It never happened, okay? What's amazing is that Notre Dame still almost held off Old Dominion, despite four points from their best player.
I underrated: St. Mary's. I wish I had seen them before the tournament--I've never seen a team that makes the extra pass so well. My favorite team to watch all month.
I properly rated: Nobody. I missed five of the eight second-round teams, three of four Sweet Sixteen teams, half of the regional final, and the Final Four rep. The worst region of my bracket-picking life, by a wide margin.
Mind-Blowing Stat of the Touranment: Not only did Notre Dame only get four points from Harangody, but they attempted three free throws as a team all game. That's got to be a record for basketball games not refereed by Dick Bavetta.
Mind-Blowing Transaction of the Tournament: Siena flopped as the most-picked upset of the tournament (34.7% of Yahoo users took them as a 13-over-4), yet Fran McCaffery turned that turd into a power-conference deal at Iowa. Not saying that McCaffery doesn't deserve to coach at that level, just that the timing of it--especially after he won in the first round the previous two years, and got no big-time offers--is uncanny, to say the least.
Now Class, What Did We Learn? Coach K can indeed coach a team of All-Americans on a roped-off red carpet path to the Final Four. When you load a bracket with the worst possible 2, 3, 4, and 5-seeds of the tournament, picking the winners is about as reliable as picking the weather. Between Duke's Final Four trip and the Yankees' World Series win, God truly hates sports fans.
-The first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament which, if you've been paying attention, are kind of a big deal to me. If you haven't been paying attention, feel free to look back at the last five or six posts on here to gain some understanding of the context. It's not like I'm going anywhere.
-My spring break. In an ideal world, this would've included me going to
I wish I had a better story for my readers about why I've been neglecting them, but I don't. If it makes you feel any better, tell yourself that I was mauled by a bear and had to go to the emergency room. In fact, I'm going to keep telling myself this, as it is much less depressing than my actual break.
-Yes, the Milwaukee Bucks are still players in the postseason hunt. Yes, the Milwaukee Brewers start their season in less than a week. Yes, these are my two main reasons for living at this point in time. And yes, I should be ashamed of that.
-The second weekend of break, I did manage to make some money doing an actual job, albeit a temporary one. By contrast, I've been writing content for this blog since August--counting research, deleted posts that didn't make the cut of publication, and social marketing, we're talking at least 75 hours of work. And in this one weekend, I made 30 times as much as I have writing. I'm not saying that you HAVE to click on the ads in the right column of this page, but anything that keeps me from having to give blowjobs for beer money is a plus at this point in my life.
(There's a lesson to be made here: if you want to start up a blog, do it--but do it for the right reasons. If you do it because you enjoy writing, because it makes you happy, and because you feel like you can make people laugh/think/pay attention, you are good. If you want to do it to make money, prepare to be disappointed. Realistically, I would probably be financially better off working in a sweatshop in the armpit of the world than doing this for a living. And I am not kidding about that at all.)
If you are hoping for things to get less depressing now that I'm done updating you and moving on to the meat of this post, you might want to click away. There are lots of blogs about unicorns, kittens, and Nazis that will be far more pleasant. Okay, maybe the last one won't. But there has been nothing pleasant about trying to forecast this year's tournament. Since bullet points seem to be in style today,
-I lost three of my Final Four teams in the second fucking round, yet my bracket is still better than 29% of Yahoo entries and 19% of ESPN entries. It goes without saying that I hardly turned in a championship showing this year--but averaging those two out, one-fourth of people did fucking worse!
-My girlfriend had Gonzaga and Marquette--yes, you read that right, Gonzaga and Marquette--in the Final Four, and is still in 5th place in her entire dorm's Bracket Challenge (for context: we're talking about a 10-story dorm, free entry, and cheesy prizes for the winners).
-In short, as the alternate title of this thing says: a retarded monkey and a dart board could've done a better than average job of picking this year's bracket. Several billion dollars of wasted productivity, and lots of failure to show for it. Bravo, America.
That being said, I'm not doing separate posts for each region this time around. Everything is in one place. But we're going to look back at what went right (not a lot), what went wrong (a metric fuckton of stuff), and what we can learn from it (if my bookie comes up to you and asks if you've seen me, the correct answer is "I think he moved to Brazil, dude").
Midwest Region
I overrated: The easy answer here is obviously Kansas. Has a majority-vote champion ever fallen so flat? We all thought that their depth would be their strength--instead, the converse turned out to be true. Their lack of an Alpha Dog, someone who could step up and say "Okay, there is no fucking way we are losing this game," was what killed them. Ali Farokhmanesh had that mentality for Northern Iowa: "Okay, this is my senior year and if we lose, my career is over. We're not going to lose. Period. If it kills me, we will win this game." Again, this is why I love senior-heavy mid-majors to overachieve in the tournament--the experience is nice, but a majority of these guys have no future playing the game or, if they have a future, it's in a place like Turkmenistan. Desperation brings out the best in the human spirit. With one title under their belts already and a fat NBA paycheck in each of their futures, do you think Sherron Collins or Cole Aldrich really cared about that game to the point that Farokhmanesh or Jordan Eglseder did? For the first two, in the grand scheme of things, it's a blip in the radar. For the last two, that game was literally the defining 40 minutes of their lives, win or lose.
I underrated: Michigan State. From a gambling perspective, I am terrified of the Michigan State-Butler game. It's like a collision course of "Nobody believed in us!" Everyone wrote MSU off after the Kalin Lucas injury--yet they overcame Northern Iowa's Cinderella power and survived a brawl with Tennessee. These guys are gelling at exactly the right time.
I properly rated: San Diego State. What does that say about this year's tournament that one of my four regional "most properly rated" titles goes to a team that I correctly said was a stupid upset pick even as they were being heralded as a sexy upset pick? I quit.
Interesting Fact: Ohio State was the only team to make it to the second weekend who was supposed to.
Another Interesting Fact: Georgetown sucks. They really, really, suck. Hard. If I was Austin Freeman, I would think long and hard before declaring for the NBA Draft. And if I was a sports agent Freeman wanted to hire in the event that he does declare, I would think long and hard about whether I wanted to spend this summer negotiating with Turkish League or Italian League teams.
Now Class, What Did We Learn? We learned that talented seniors with nothing to lose are to be feared, heavily. We learned that Bruce Pearl and Tom Izzo know how to get the most from their teams in March. We learned that teams without a clearly defined go-to guy crumble in close games. In other words, we learned absolutely no new information. I will no proceed to bang my head on the wall repeatedly. To the girls in the apartment next door, I'm sorry for the noise.
West Region
I overrated: BYU. I thought their three-point shooting would be enough to carry them to an upset over K-State. However, when you only attempt 16 threes over the course of the game, that's just not gonna happen. How do you not come out gunning from long range when you're the top three-point percentage team in the nation, and a hot hand from three blew away Florida in the second overtime of Round One?
I underrated: Xavier. Jordan Crawford is the real deal. Like "if I was an NBA scout for a lottery team, I would be watching every existing piece of footage on this kid" real. His and Jacob Pullen's double-overtime duel Thursday night is an early contender for Sports Moment of 2010.
I properly rated: Murray State. Very few opportunities for bragging rights with my bracket this year, but here's one of them: I nailed this one, bitches! Suck it, world!
Okay, now that we're done with that, enjoy this clip of the first (and most awesome) buzzer-beater of the tournament. The best part comes at the 23 second mark: three benchwarming ginger kids who all look like they just watched their parents get murdered.
That was fun.
Theory of the Day, Supported By Incontrovertible Evidence: The fact that Jacob Pullen's first name isn't "Richard" is proof that his parents have no sense of humor. I'm sorry, the "Pullen It Off" puns just don't cut it for me.
Most Gawd-Awful Coach of the Touranment: Dave Rose, BYU. How the FUCK do you only shoot 16 threes against a 2-seed when that's your team's strength? Doesn't airing it out give you the best chance to win? Didn't Jimmer Fredette have actual NBA Jam-style flames shooting out of his head during the second overtime of the Florida game? Rose seemed more concerned with holding down the margin of defeat than making any kind of effort to pursue victory. You owe your team better, Dave.
Now Class, What Did We Learn? Alpha Dog vs. Alpha Dog battles during prime-time television make for March memories. If you were in a pool with a Butler alum, you probably lost. Vermont would've been at least 10 points closer if TJ Sorrentine was sitting courtside for the game. Never, ever, back a 'fraidy-cat coach in an upset bid. The Big East sucked a fat one this year.
East Region
I overrated: Wisconsin. In order for them to exploit a perfect matchup against Kentucky, they would've actually had to... get to Kentucky. Instead? Wofford almost pulled the upset, before handing away the game in the final minutes. Then Cornell blew them off the court. I didn't know it was possible to have a "trap game" when you're not even playing--but Cornell-Wisconsin definitely qualified as a trap game in my bracket.
I underrated: Washington. The best-kept secret of the tournament is that the most superbly-played game so far happened in the first round: Marquette-Washington. Both teams shot over 50%, both teams shot over 60% from three, both teams had four players in double digits, came down to a buzzer-beater from Calvin Pondexter... if you love watching basketball, you loved that game. Both of those teams deserved to be in the Sweet Sixteen.
I properly rated: Kentucky. Sure, they are four talented freshmen. But at the end of the day, four freshmen playing for their draft prospects is not a good game plan to get to the Final Four. I told you all that their inexperience in close games would haunt them. I knew that they would run away to a few huge wins early (29 points over ETSU, 30 points over Wake Forest, 15 points over Cornell), but that when they faced a team that could stay in the game, they would melt down. I just missed the boat on which team would force said meltdown.
Most Gawd-Awful Coach of the Tournament Award, Honorable Mention: A well-trained monkey could've taken Rick Barnes' collection of All-Americans to the Sweet Sixteen. He's either the college version of Chris Wallace (taking all the best high school players who will never be good college players) or Mike Dunleavy (taking gifted teams and careening them into a lightpole). The fact that all three of the above are still employed is a crying shame.
Reason (Rick Barnes Won't Give The Media) For Texas' Epic Late-Season Collapse: It's a recession, guys. We had to cut payroll this year.
Best Example of Life Imitating Art in Sports History: Kentucky Basketball vs. Ricky Bobby. Either they win, or they crash the car. If they're not first, they're last. Also, most of them will not obtain a college degree, like Ricky.
Now Class, What Did We Learn? Don't overlook a bad second-round matchup because you love a team's thrid-round matchup. A great team will always outperform a collection of great players. Darington Hobson should start looking for affordable apartments in the Czech Republic. Just because a team steamrolled their last opponent doesn't make them a guarantee to beat the next one. Just because it didn't count on the scoreboard doesn't make it awesome:
South Region
I overrated: The Big East. At this point, I wouldn't pick Villanova to make the final of the NIT, much less the real tournament. And I'm seriously considering deleting the entire Luke Harangody section out of the Tournament Manifesto 2.0. It never happened, okay? What's amazing is that Notre Dame still almost held off Old Dominion, despite four points from their best player.
I underrated: St. Mary's. I wish I had seen them before the tournament--I've never seen a team that makes the extra pass so well. My favorite team to watch all month.
I properly rated: Nobody. I missed five of the eight second-round teams, three of four Sweet Sixteen teams, half of the regional final, and the Final Four rep. The worst region of my bracket-picking life, by a wide margin.
Mind-Blowing Stat of the Touranment: Not only did Notre Dame only get four points from Harangody, but they attempted three free throws as a team all game. That's got to be a record for basketball games not refereed by Dick Bavetta.
Mind-Blowing Transaction of the Tournament: Siena flopped as the most-picked upset of the tournament (34.7% of Yahoo users took them as a 13-over-4), yet Fran McCaffery turned that turd into a power-conference deal at Iowa. Not saying that McCaffery doesn't deserve to coach at that level, just that the timing of it--especially after he won in the first round the previous two years, and got no big-time offers--is uncanny, to say the least.
Now Class, What Did We Learn? Coach K can indeed coach a team of All-Americans on a roped-off red carpet path to the Final Four. When you load a bracket with the worst possible 2, 3, 4, and 5-seeds of the tournament, picking the winners is about as reliable as picking the weather. Between Duke's Final Four trip and the Yankees' World Series win, God truly hates sports fans.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
March Madness 2010: South Region/Final Four Quickie
I planned on being able to have a write-up ready for the last region and Final Four... only I didn't plan on 12 hours of drunkenness for St. Patrick's Day. Needless to say, there was no time to be found for blogging. Since the tournament starts in less than 12 hours, I want my picks on record. So here we go. With this, you can put it together, and I will go into more detail tomorrow.
South Region
Sweet 16: Duke over Louisville, Siena over Utah State, Notre Dame over Baylor, Villanova over Richmond
Final Four: Villanova over Duke
Final Four
Kansas over Pitt
Villanova over West Virginia
Kansas over Villanova
South Region
Sweet 16: Duke over Louisville, Siena over Utah State, Notre Dame over Baylor, Villanova over Richmond
Final Four: Villanova over Duke
Final Four
Kansas over Pitt
Villanova over West Virginia
Kansas over Villanova
March Madness 2010: East Region Preview
Time for Good Region Number Two! We've got John Wall, the Big East champions, the Pac-10 champions (though as an 11-seed), a Wisconsin team that knocked off Purdue and came ohsoclose to upsetting Ohio State, two of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation (Marquette and Cornell), a Missouri team that knocked off Kansas State, and the ex-number-one-ranked-team-in-the-nation, Texas, as an 8-seed. I mean, holy shit--read that back again. That's just a brutal region. And if Kentucky can pull off a Final Four run, it could possibly stand as the most brutal ever faced by a 1-seed. Formerly top-ranked Texas in the second round, a giant-hunting Wisconsin team that matches up disturbingly well with the 'Cats in the Sweet Sixteen, then the champions of the best conference in the entire NCAA in the Elite Eight. Think of it like a car trying to jump over a gap in a bridge. If you make it, it's awesome and nobody who witnessed it ever forgets. But that's a pretty big if.
Anyways, enough foreplay. On to the picks.
First Round
-1. Kentucky over 16. East Tennessee State
The Selection Committee's statement regarding the controversy over their historically tough road to the Final Four? "Hey, at least we didn't give them Georgetown as a 16-seed in the first round!"
-8. Texas over 9. Wake Forest
Always beware the mega-talented, underperforming teams come March. You never know what might spark them to be who people thought they were.
-12. Cornell over 5. Temple
Okay, you want a 12-5 upset, buddy? Try a 40% three-point shooting team with tournament experience (two straight years, at that) going against a shaky mid-major at-large bid with losses to St. Johns and Charlotte. This is the one to watch. Teams like Temple with a "12" in front of their name always seem to get just enough lucky bounces.
-4. Wisconsin over 13. Wofford
Wofford has already lost to two Big Ten teams seeded lower than the Badgers.
-6. Marquette over 11. Washington
The Pac-10 champion is only an 11-seed. And they only have two teams in the tournament! The Atlantic 10 and WAC have both surpassed the Pac-10 in both categories. I hate the East Coast bias as much as anyone, but you've gotta put a competitive product out, guys.
-3. New Mexico over 14. Montana
Meh. Doubt too many people will be flipped to this game.
-10. Missouri over 7. Clemson
Clemson doesn't impress me. Missouri beating Kansas State does. And the Big 12's depth this year is impressive.
-2. West Virginia over 15. Morgan State
Another textbook Happy To Be Here team. Enjoy the experience.
Second Round
-1. Kentucky over 8. Texas
If there was ever an 8-over-1 upset to pick, this is the one. Unproven Kentucky team still in their first tournament weekend (first one ever for 4 of their starting 5), Texas team that was ranked #1 and started off 17-0. Problem is, Texas is 7-9 since then. Here lies the greatest long-term collapse not to involve the New York Mets or Bucky Dent in sports history.
-4. Wisconsin over 12. Cornell
Wisconsin suffocates Cornell's shooters on the defensive end, cleans up the boards, gets to the line and manages to score while putting Cornell in foul trouble... (nodding). Sounds incredibly possible.
-6. Marquette over 3. New Mexico
Best wins for New Mexico: Cal (8 seed) and BYU (7) twice. Making Marquette arguably the toughest team they have faced all year. New Mexico is the poster child for the "top seeds have never been weaker" argument that's being made this year. Never has a 3-seed played so many creampuffs.
-2. West Virginia over 10. Missouri
You're not going to see two 2-seeds go down on opening weekend.
Sweet Sixteen
-4. Wisconsin over 1. Kentucky
Oh, yes. You better believe I went there. Now, before you call the paramedics to take me off to the loony bin (two Facebook friends have already declared that I must be drunk to make this pick), hear me out. Believe me, after a middle-school mistake in which I took 5-seeded Wisconsin as a Final Four team and watched them drop in the first round, I've taken the noble cause of fighting homerism seriously. I wouldn't make this pick if I wasn't extremely confident in it, and I am. Here's why:
1. Kentucky is starting four freshmen and, of their close games this year, only Vanderbilt could be considered a good team. Other than that, their wins by 5 or less include Miami of Ohio, North Carolina, UConn, Auburn, and Miss St. Put them in a close game against a semi-decent team (as in "nobody in the above list") and suddenly rookie mistakes--like John Wall short-arming a potential game-winner from the corner--will be huge, and maybe Cousins isn't able to outmuscle the entire defense for the put-back...
2. Wisconsin takes care of the basketball (only 8.9 turnovers per game... best in the NCAA), makes their free-throws (73.5%... top 20 in the NCAA) and grinds the tempo of the game down to a crawl. It's an ugly game to watch, but they aren't going to get blown out of the arena by anybody. Hell, they shot under 20% in the first half against Illinois and still had it at 10 points--you don't pull that off unless you really milk your possessions.
3. Kentucky wins by blowing teams out, and Wisconsin isn't a team that can be blown out. Meaning that the Badgers might not jump out to a lead, but they won't go away. They'll come roaring back, and keep it close, and keep the seeds of doubt in the Wildcat players' minds. Why won't these guys go away?! Then, the doubt turns to rattled-freshman panic. And mistakes. And Wisconsin capitalizes on mistakes.
I do think the bracket this year is laughably unfair. Kentucky has to run the table against Texas (pre-season top 3 team), Wisconsin (top-15 team that is a match-up nightmare for UK's style of play) and West Virginia (tournament winners in the nation's toughest conference). Kansas (the best 1 seed) and Ohio State (the best 2 seed) are in the same bracket. Meanwhile, Duke gets their region as gift-wrapped as possible without drawing St. Mary's School For The Blind in the sweet 16. It fucking sucks. But that's reality. And the reality is spelled out plain as day above. If it makes you feel better, Kentucky fans, this might cause one or two of your freshman phenoms to stick around in school another year.
2. West Virginia over 6. Marquette
The state of Wisconsin already used up all of it's goodwill with the March Madness Gods in the above matchup. No chance in hell the March Madness Gods will ever allow a Marquette-Wisconsin matchup with that much on the line.
Elite Eight
2. West Virginia over 4. Wisconsin
Do I love Wisconsin as the "perfect storm" matchup to topple Kentucky? You bet your ass I do. Do I love them so much against the Big East champions, a team who has won in every way imaginable in the NCAA tournament and won't give the Badgers error-prone invitaitons to take the game late? Not really. And especially not in such a potential Letdown Game.
Anyways, enough foreplay. On to the picks.
First Round
-1. Kentucky over 16. East Tennessee State
The Selection Committee's statement regarding the controversy over their historically tough road to the Final Four? "Hey, at least we didn't give them Georgetown as a 16-seed in the first round!"
-8. Texas over 9. Wake Forest
Always beware the mega-talented, underperforming teams come March. You never know what might spark them to be who people thought they were.
-12. Cornell over 5. Temple
Okay, you want a 12-5 upset, buddy? Try a 40% three-point shooting team with tournament experience (two straight years, at that) going against a shaky mid-major at-large bid with losses to St. Johns and Charlotte. This is the one to watch. Teams like Temple with a "12" in front of their name always seem to get just enough lucky bounces.
-4. Wisconsin over 13. Wofford
Wofford has already lost to two Big Ten teams seeded lower than the Badgers.
-6. Marquette over 11. Washington
The Pac-10 champion is only an 11-seed. And they only have two teams in the tournament! The Atlantic 10 and WAC have both surpassed the Pac-10 in both categories. I hate the East Coast bias as much as anyone, but you've gotta put a competitive product out, guys.
-3. New Mexico over 14. Montana
Meh. Doubt too many people will be flipped to this game.
-10. Missouri over 7. Clemson
Clemson doesn't impress me. Missouri beating Kansas State does. And the Big 12's depth this year is impressive.
-2. West Virginia over 15. Morgan State
Another textbook Happy To Be Here team. Enjoy the experience.
Second Round
-1. Kentucky over 8. Texas
If there was ever an 8-over-1 upset to pick, this is the one. Unproven Kentucky team still in their first tournament weekend (first one ever for 4 of their starting 5), Texas team that was ranked #1 and started off 17-0. Problem is, Texas is 7-9 since then. Here lies the greatest long-term collapse not to involve the New York Mets or Bucky Dent in sports history.
-4. Wisconsin over 12. Cornell
Wisconsin suffocates Cornell's shooters on the defensive end, cleans up the boards, gets to the line and manages to score while putting Cornell in foul trouble... (nodding). Sounds incredibly possible.
-6. Marquette over 3. New Mexico
Best wins for New Mexico: Cal (8 seed) and BYU (7) twice. Making Marquette arguably the toughest team they have faced all year. New Mexico is the poster child for the "top seeds have never been weaker" argument that's being made this year. Never has a 3-seed played so many creampuffs.
-2. West Virginia over 10. Missouri
You're not going to see two 2-seeds go down on opening weekend.
Sweet Sixteen
-4. Wisconsin over 1. Kentucky
Oh, yes. You better believe I went there. Now, before you call the paramedics to take me off to the loony bin (two Facebook friends have already declared that I must be drunk to make this pick), hear me out. Believe me, after a middle-school mistake in which I took 5-seeded Wisconsin as a Final Four team and watched them drop in the first round, I've taken the noble cause of fighting homerism seriously. I wouldn't make this pick if I wasn't extremely confident in it, and I am. Here's why:
1. Kentucky is starting four freshmen and, of their close games this year, only Vanderbilt could be considered a good team. Other than that, their wins by 5 or less include Miami of Ohio, North Carolina, UConn, Auburn, and Miss St. Put them in a close game against a semi-decent team (as in "nobody in the above list") and suddenly rookie mistakes--like John Wall short-arming a potential game-winner from the corner--will be huge, and maybe Cousins isn't able to outmuscle the entire defense for the put-back...
2. Wisconsin takes care of the basketball (only 8.9 turnovers per game... best in the NCAA), makes their free-throws (73.5%... top 20 in the NCAA) and grinds the tempo of the game down to a crawl. It's an ugly game to watch, but they aren't going to get blown out of the arena by anybody. Hell, they shot under 20% in the first half against Illinois and still had it at 10 points--you don't pull that off unless you really milk your possessions.
3. Kentucky wins by blowing teams out, and Wisconsin isn't a team that can be blown out. Meaning that the Badgers might not jump out to a lead, but they won't go away. They'll come roaring back, and keep it close, and keep the seeds of doubt in the Wildcat players' minds. Why won't these guys go away?! Then, the doubt turns to rattled-freshman panic. And mistakes. And Wisconsin capitalizes on mistakes.
I do think the bracket this year is laughably unfair. Kentucky has to run the table against Texas (pre-season top 3 team), Wisconsin (top-15 team that is a match-up nightmare for UK's style of play) and West Virginia (tournament winners in the nation's toughest conference). Kansas (the best 1 seed) and Ohio State (the best 2 seed) are in the same bracket. Meanwhile, Duke gets their region as gift-wrapped as possible without drawing St. Mary's School For The Blind in the sweet 16. It fucking sucks. But that's reality. And the reality is spelled out plain as day above. If it makes you feel better, Kentucky fans, this might cause one or two of your freshman phenoms to stick around in school another year.
2. West Virginia over 6. Marquette
The state of Wisconsin already used up all of it's goodwill with the March Madness Gods in the above matchup. No chance in hell the March Madness Gods will ever allow a Marquette-Wisconsin matchup with that much on the line.
Elite Eight
2. West Virginia over 4. Wisconsin
Do I love Wisconsin as the "perfect storm" matchup to topple Kentucky? You bet your ass I do. Do I love them so much against the Big East champions, a team who has won in every way imaginable in the NCAA tournament and won't give the Badgers error-prone invitaitons to take the game late? Not really. And especially not in such a potential Letdown Game.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
March Madness 2010: West Region Preview
So, the Midwest is down. For the first part of today, we move to one of the bottom regions--for the sake of this tournament, I'm considering the Midwest and East the "top" regions, and the West and South the "bottom" regions. Why? Because the MW and E are stacked, and the W and S are both fairly sketchy. As we will soon see.
Okay, enough with the rambling. On to the picks.
First Round
-1. Syracuse over 16. Vermont
Though I would loooove to see Vermont win this one, if only for the decades of shit-talking to 'Cuse fans that it would win them. 12-over-5 upset in 2005? Awesome. 16-over-1 upset in 2010? Compoundedly super-awesome. Honestly, who outside the state of New York wouldn't love to see that?
(Regardless of how it ends, I'm excited to see how this game works out between the fans. Has a 16-seed ever had ammo to talk shit to a 1-seed before this? These are the kinds of questions PTI and the like should be asking.)
-9. Florida State over 8. Gonzaga
67% of Yahoo users are taking Gonzaga. That kind of disparity in an 8-9 matchup? The Gambling Gods cannot be happy. Remember, there is a reason that bookies are filthy stinking rich.
(Also, my girlfriend is taking Gonzaga--or, as she calls them, "Godzilla"--to the Final Four. Odds of this backfiring, them going out in the first round, and me giving her shit for this until next March? Looking like a good bet.)
-5. Butler over 12. UTEP
Remember back in 2007, when a glut of people picked Long Beach State over Tennessee because LBSU was a 12-seed and had Snoop Dogg connections? And how LBSU lost by 40 points? Also, remember in that same year how Butler was another trendy pick to get upset in a 12-5 matchup, then made it to the second weekend? The lesson here? Choose your upsets wisely. And this is not a wise choice.
-13. Murray State over 4. Vanderbilt
Billy Kennedy is an experienced tournament coach, and the Racers' top 6 scorers are separated by only 1.1 points per game. On top of that, Vanderbilt lost a 4-13 matchup to Siena in 2008. Most of the Commodore players were on that team, and you know it will be in the back of their heads if they can't put it away early. And while Murray State may not be capable of blowing people out of the building they are a balanced, steady team that can keep it close and capitalize on a few mental errors by rattled players down the stretch.
(By the way, every Vanderbilt upperclassman who was there for the '08 game against Siena will spend the rest of the time until the game is over PRAYING that this doesn't happen. And if it does? Well, there's no rioting like drunken, angry college sports nut rioting!)
-11. Minnesota over 6. Xavier
While you have to watch out for the "mid-level team that played into a big-time seed" conference tournament success, riding the "we've already pulled off a Cinderella story in our conference tourney to get here" team is encouraged. As they always say, the most dangerous man in a fight is the man with nothing to lose. Minnesota's season should be over--at this point, everything is gravy. So we've got a 40% three-point shooting crew playing with nothing to lose and a spring in their step from knocking off Michigan State and Purdue. Xavier, after that? Should be cake.
-3. Pittsburgh over 14. Oakland
You know how every year, there's a 3-14 game that ends up being ridiculously entertaining and, if you're lucky, ends with Northwestern State pulling the upset? This is not going to be that game. Textbook "We're Just Happy To Be Here" team.
-7. BYU over 10. Florida
You might remember BYU as a textbook example of a Three-Point Bomber candidate. You also might remember Florida as a team that was supposedly on the bubble, and is incredibly lucky to have scored as high as a 10-seed? Bring bodybags for this one.
-2. Kansas State over 15. North Texas
Just imagine where this team would be if they still had Michael Beasley.
Second Round
-1. Syracuse over 9. Florida State
Yeah... this isn't exactly Georgetown trying to pull the huge-underdog upset of a 1-seeded Syracuse. Haul over the bodybags from the Florida game.
-5. Butler over 13. Murray State
You've gotta respect Butler--they've always at least held up their seed in the tournament, if not exceeded it. They're not the type of team to let Murray State beat them.
3. Pittsburgh over 11. Minnesota
Tubby Smith's reclamation project isn't quite that far along yet. They'll be in the Sweet 16 sooner, rather than later. This is not the year, though.
7. BYU over 2. Kansas State
When the Stormin' Mormons are on, they can shoot the lights out. And coming off the blowout win I'm calling over Florida, they're gonna have a little bit of swagger. I can easily see them catching fire. Kansas State's perimeter defense was exposed by Kansas three times this season. BYU isn't Kansas-good, but this is a terrible matchup for K-State.
Sweet Sixteen
1. Syracuse over 5. Butler
One thing that was noted repeatedly after the third round of the Big East tournament was that, with the teams and coaches as familiar with each other as they are, most underdogs always have a shot. Outside of that kind of environment? There are teams that might be able to beat Syracuse--just that Butler is not one of them.
3. Pitt over 7. BYU
Pitt was able to handily beat Marquette, a similar-style team to BYU who is seeded higher. Pitt's D will hassle the BYU shooters, Ashton Gibbs will take over, and we'll be looking at an end to the Cinderella dreams of BYU.
Elite Eight
3. Pitt over 1. Syracuse
Again, I love 'Cuse against non-Big East coaches who aren't familiar with them. But against Pitt, who already beat them once this year, it's a lot tougher to call. I'm gonna say Jamie Dixon goes from Sweet Sixteen to Elite Eight to Final Four in consecutive years.
Okay, enough with the rambling. On to the picks.
First Round
-1. Syracuse over 16. Vermont
Though I would loooove to see Vermont win this one, if only for the decades of shit-talking to 'Cuse fans that it would win them. 12-over-5 upset in 2005? Awesome. 16-over-1 upset in 2010? Compoundedly super-awesome. Honestly, who outside the state of New York wouldn't love to see that?
(Regardless of how it ends, I'm excited to see how this game works out between the fans. Has a 16-seed ever had ammo to talk shit to a 1-seed before this? These are the kinds of questions PTI and the like should be asking.)
-9. Florida State over 8. Gonzaga
67% of Yahoo users are taking Gonzaga. That kind of disparity in an 8-9 matchup? The Gambling Gods cannot be happy. Remember, there is a reason that bookies are filthy stinking rich.
(Also, my girlfriend is taking Gonzaga--or, as she calls them, "Godzilla"--to the Final Four. Odds of this backfiring, them going out in the first round, and me giving her shit for this until next March? Looking like a good bet.)
-5. Butler over 12. UTEP
Remember back in 2007, when a glut of people picked Long Beach State over Tennessee because LBSU was a 12-seed and had Snoop Dogg connections? And how LBSU lost by 40 points? Also, remember in that same year how Butler was another trendy pick to get upset in a 12-5 matchup, then made it to the second weekend? The lesson here? Choose your upsets wisely. And this is not a wise choice.
-13. Murray State over 4. Vanderbilt
Billy Kennedy is an experienced tournament coach, and the Racers' top 6 scorers are separated by only 1.1 points per game. On top of that, Vanderbilt lost a 4-13 matchup to Siena in 2008. Most of the Commodore players were on that team, and you know it will be in the back of their heads if they can't put it away early. And while Murray State may not be capable of blowing people out of the building they are a balanced, steady team that can keep it close and capitalize on a few mental errors by rattled players down the stretch.
(By the way, every Vanderbilt upperclassman who was there for the '08 game against Siena will spend the rest of the time until the game is over PRAYING that this doesn't happen. And if it does? Well, there's no rioting like drunken, angry college sports nut rioting!)
-11. Minnesota over 6. Xavier
While you have to watch out for the "mid-level team that played into a big-time seed" conference tournament success, riding the "we've already pulled off a Cinderella story in our conference tourney to get here" team is encouraged. As they always say, the most dangerous man in a fight is the man with nothing to lose. Minnesota's season should be over--at this point, everything is gravy. So we've got a 40% three-point shooting crew playing with nothing to lose and a spring in their step from knocking off Michigan State and Purdue. Xavier, after that? Should be cake.
-3. Pittsburgh over 14. Oakland
You know how every year, there's a 3-14 game that ends up being ridiculously entertaining and, if you're lucky, ends with Northwestern State pulling the upset? This is not going to be that game. Textbook "We're Just Happy To Be Here" team.
-7. BYU over 10. Florida
You might remember BYU as a textbook example of a Three-Point Bomber candidate. You also might remember Florida as a team that was supposedly on the bubble, and is incredibly lucky to have scored as high as a 10-seed? Bring bodybags for this one.
-2. Kansas State over 15. North Texas
Just imagine where this team would be if they still had Michael Beasley.
Second Round
-1. Syracuse over 9. Florida State
Yeah... this isn't exactly Georgetown trying to pull the huge-underdog upset of a 1-seeded Syracuse. Haul over the bodybags from the Florida game.
-5. Butler over 13. Murray State
You've gotta respect Butler--they've always at least held up their seed in the tournament, if not exceeded it. They're not the type of team to let Murray State beat them.
3. Pittsburgh over 11. Minnesota
Tubby Smith's reclamation project isn't quite that far along yet. They'll be in the Sweet 16 sooner, rather than later. This is not the year, though.
7. BYU over 2. Kansas State
When the Stormin' Mormons are on, they can shoot the lights out. And coming off the blowout win I'm calling over Florida, they're gonna have a little bit of swagger. I can easily see them catching fire. Kansas State's perimeter defense was exposed by Kansas three times this season. BYU isn't Kansas-good, but this is a terrible matchup for K-State.
Sweet Sixteen
1. Syracuse over 5. Butler
One thing that was noted repeatedly after the third round of the Big East tournament was that, with the teams and coaches as familiar with each other as they are, most underdogs always have a shot. Outside of that kind of environment? There are teams that might be able to beat Syracuse--just that Butler is not one of them.
3. Pitt over 7. BYU
Pitt was able to handily beat Marquette, a similar-style team to BYU who is seeded higher. Pitt's D will hassle the BYU shooters, Ashton Gibbs will take over, and we'll be looking at an end to the Cinderella dreams of BYU.
Elite Eight
3. Pitt over 1. Syracuse
Again, I love 'Cuse against non-Big East coaches who aren't familiar with them. But against Pitt, who already beat them once this year, it's a lot tougher to call. I'm gonna say Jamie Dixon goes from Sweet Sixteen to Elite Eight to Final Four in consecutive years.
Monday, March 15, 2010
March Madness 2010: Midwest Regional Preview
So here's Part 2 of our six-part NCAA Tournament preview. If you missed the March Manifesto 2.0, feel free to go check that out at some point. But whereas that dealt with a skeleton strategy that is refined and applied every year, now we're delving into what you really want: the cheat sheets for This Year Right Now.
Disclaimer Number One: Neither Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe or it's author are responsible for any money you lose as a result of following the advice here. It's your responsibility. Then again, if you follow my advice and win big, I'll gladly let you share your winnings with me. I'm an accomidating guy like that.
Disclaimer Number Two: Over 90% of my readership comes from the United States, and I need to emphasize that gambling is illegal in most of that particular country. You see that, Government Agent Who Is "Randomly" Monitoring My Computer Thanks To The Patriot Act? I'm being good. Now please let my family go?
First Round
-1. Kansas over 16. Lehigh
This one doesn't even deserve a write-up.
-9. Northern Iowa over 8. UNLV
I like UNI. They went 18-3 in a tough mid-major conference, outscore their opponents by 9 points per game, and top 75% from the line as a team. They don't have the star power to beat any big-time teams, but I like them over UNLV for sure.
-5. Michigan State over 12. New Mexico State
Look elsewhere for your 5-12 upset than a mid-major with 11 losses going against a Tom Izzo squad. Say what you will about his inability to beat Wisconsin, Izzo always has his team prepared for March.
-4. Maryland over 13. Houston
March basketball can easily turn into a one-man show. And in this case, Grievous Vasquez is far and away the best player on the court, bar none. Expect him to take over.
-6. Tennessee over 11. San Diego State
The Aztecs came close to stunning Indiana during the 2006 tournament. It's not gonna happen this time around.
-3. Georgetown over 14. Ohio
Don't be a hero, Billy. This one's not gonna happen.
-10. Georgia Tech over 7. Oklahoma State
Don't be fooled by Tech's record--playing in the same conference with Duke, Maryland, and Clemson hurt them. The Okies won't be able to handle Gani Lawal and Derrick Shumpert down low, both of them average at least 12.5 points and 8 rebounds per game.
-2. Ohio State over 15. Cal-Santa Barbara
I'll say it once: forcing Kansas and Ohio State to go through each other on the road to the Final Four while Duke gets it's path plowed clean is a fucking travesty. This was my championship pick, until the committee went and screwed the pooch.
Second Round
-1. Kansas over 9. Northern Iowa
UNI has a great little team, and against a lesser upset candidate I'd go for it. But not here.
-4. Maryland over 5. Michigan State
A fantastic matchup, this one should be happening a round later. I think this one goes down to the wire, which is where the Alpha Dog Corollary comes into play. With Maryland, you know that Vasquez is the guy to take the big shot. With Michigan State, well, that's the thing: it might be Kalin Lucas, it might be Raymar Morgan, or Draymond Green or Durrell Summers. When the game is on the line with seconds to go, there should be no doubt who the play is being designed for, and he should have no doubt that he is getting the ball in the hoop somehow.
-6. Tennessee over 3. Georgetown
I'm not impressed enough with Georgetown's body of work to see them as worthy of a 3-seed. Making it to the Big East final was good, but is it worth enough to offset their 10-8 conference record prior to that? I say no, and I say they are Overseeded Team #1 who isn't making it out of the first weekend.
-2. Ohio State over 10. Georgia Tech
Not a chance in hell Evan Turner lets Ohio State go home on the first weekend.
Sweet Sixteen
-1. Kansas over 4. Maryland
I feel so boring not picking any upsets in this round. But let's be realistic--if your life is on the line, and you have to pick these games, is there any chance you're going against Kansas or Ohio State? I say no.
-2. Ohio State over 6. Tennessee
Again, don't get cute. You're going to pick against the best player in the nation, someone who can take over a game at any point and carry his team, you better have a damn good reason to do so.
Elite Eight
-1. Kansas over 2. Ohio State
And in terms of "damn good reasons," you've gotta put "I'm picking the better team over the better player" as one of the best. Turner is a monster, but Kansas' entire team is great. Whoever wins this one will take the title, and I just don't see Kansas being beatable this year.
Disclaimer Number One: Neither Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe or it's author are responsible for any money you lose as a result of following the advice here. It's your responsibility. Then again, if you follow my advice and win big, I'll gladly let you share your winnings with me. I'm an accomidating guy like that.
Disclaimer Number Two: Over 90% of my readership comes from the United States, and I need to emphasize that gambling is illegal in most of that particular country. You see that, Government Agent Who Is "Randomly" Monitoring My Computer Thanks To The Patriot Act? I'm being good. Now please let my family go?
First Round
-1. Kansas over 16. Lehigh
This one doesn't even deserve a write-up.
-9. Northern Iowa over 8. UNLV
I like UNI. They went 18-3 in a tough mid-major conference, outscore their opponents by 9 points per game, and top 75% from the line as a team. They don't have the star power to beat any big-time teams, but I like them over UNLV for sure.
-5. Michigan State over 12. New Mexico State
Look elsewhere for your 5-12 upset than a mid-major with 11 losses going against a Tom Izzo squad. Say what you will about his inability to beat Wisconsin, Izzo always has his team prepared for March.
-4. Maryland over 13. Houston
March basketball can easily turn into a one-man show. And in this case, Grievous Vasquez is far and away the best player on the court, bar none. Expect him to take over.
-6. Tennessee over 11. San Diego State
The Aztecs came close to stunning Indiana during the 2006 tournament. It's not gonna happen this time around.
-3. Georgetown over 14. Ohio
Don't be a hero, Billy. This one's not gonna happen.
-10. Georgia Tech over 7. Oklahoma State
Don't be fooled by Tech's record--playing in the same conference with Duke, Maryland, and Clemson hurt them. The Okies won't be able to handle Gani Lawal and Derrick Shumpert down low, both of them average at least 12.5 points and 8 rebounds per game.
-2. Ohio State over 15. Cal-Santa Barbara
I'll say it once: forcing Kansas and Ohio State to go through each other on the road to the Final Four while Duke gets it's path plowed clean is a fucking travesty. This was my championship pick, until the committee went and screwed the pooch.
Second Round
-1. Kansas over 9. Northern Iowa
UNI has a great little team, and against a lesser upset candidate I'd go for it. But not here.
-4. Maryland over 5. Michigan State
A fantastic matchup, this one should be happening a round later. I think this one goes down to the wire, which is where the Alpha Dog Corollary comes into play. With Maryland, you know that Vasquez is the guy to take the big shot. With Michigan State, well, that's the thing: it might be Kalin Lucas, it might be Raymar Morgan, or Draymond Green or Durrell Summers. When the game is on the line with seconds to go, there should be no doubt who the play is being designed for, and he should have no doubt that he is getting the ball in the hoop somehow.
-6. Tennessee over 3. Georgetown
I'm not impressed enough with Georgetown's body of work to see them as worthy of a 3-seed. Making it to the Big East final was good, but is it worth enough to offset their 10-8 conference record prior to that? I say no, and I say they are Overseeded Team #1 who isn't making it out of the first weekend.
-2. Ohio State over 10. Georgia Tech
Not a chance in hell Evan Turner lets Ohio State go home on the first weekend.
Sweet Sixteen
-1. Kansas over 4. Maryland
I feel so boring not picking any upsets in this round. But let's be realistic--if your life is on the line, and you have to pick these games, is there any chance you're going against Kansas or Ohio State? I say no.
-2. Ohio State over 6. Tennessee
Again, don't get cute. You're going to pick against the best player in the nation, someone who can take over a game at any point and carry his team, you better have a damn good reason to do so.
Elite Eight
-1. Kansas over 2. Ohio State
And in terms of "damn good reasons," you've gotta put "I'm picking the better team over the better player" as one of the best. Turner is a monster, but Kansas' entire team is great. Whoever wins this one will take the title, and I just don't see Kansas being beatable this year.
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