Monday, November 30, 2009

A Look in the Vault: 12/07 Column for Pioneer Outlook

So if you're still reading what I have to say, it's pretty safe to say that you think I'm a good writer. Either that, or you randomly found this page, have no idea what you're doing, and are trying to figure out who the hell this idiot who keeps ranting about Brett Favre is. One of the two.

But either way, "good" is an opinion. "Confident" is a statement of fact. I'm confident in my writings. When I click "Publish Post," I know that I'm putting something good out into teh Intarwebz.1 Writing is a skill, and like any skill it must be practiced. I've been doing this shit for years and years, dating back to well before my balls dropped. It's always fun, when you've done something for that long, to look back at some of your old work. The past day, I've had that chance.

I really got my start writing about sports in high school, when I was the sports editor of the monthly newsletter my senior year. I loved it--I could write freely about sports, get a grade for it, say what I wanted2 and everyone loved it. The lovably caustic asshole that lived inside of me really came out for the first time in that space, and I really started to develop into the writer, and the man, that I am today.

Yesterday, while searching for AA batteries in an old drawer, I came across an old jump drive. Plugging it in, I found copies of all the old columns from that year. I read through; at some points I was impressed with how far along I already was at that point in my writing life, at some points I found myself thinking "what in the bloody fuck was I trying to say there?" I'm sure five years down the line when I look back at these posts, it'll be a lot of the same.

Anyway, I wanted to take my favorite piece from that year and share it with you. At some points, I aim to share some other ones, as well--as well as other old works of mine. It was a monthly column, running from October to May (skipping January for winter break). This was December--I remember at the end of the year thinking it was my finest work, and in my opinion (though some of the references are a little dated) it holds up damn good to the stuff I'm even writing today. You'll notice footnotes, as well. There were a few already in this column. I want to re-print it as it was the day it was originally published--and at the same time, I want to spice some of my thoughts three years later in as well. So enjoy.

A fun fact for you to chew on while reading this New Year's (I will chug a Drano cocktail before I call it "Holiday Break," or use the despicable "Christmahannakwanzaka.3") edition of Pioneer Outlook: By the time you finish reading this edition of At the Buzzer, two more Cincinnati Bengals players will have been arrested.

Okay, maybe I"m exaggerating just a little, but the fact remains that we are witnessing felonious history. On Dec. 9, Cincy cornerback Deltha O'Neal blew a .10 at a traffic stop, becoming the eighth Bengal to be brought up on charges since training camp opened. Just a day earlier, wide receiver Reggie McNeal was arrested on drug-related charges outside a Houston nightclub.

I would be glad to list the rest of the Cinci-Naughty players who have been arrested, but we simply don't have space in this magazine. Rumor has it, however, that the Bengals now get a team discount for using the same bail bondsman. And Carson Palmer, in danger of losing touch with the team that he is supposed to be a leader of, was recently spotted outside of a Cincinnati Kwik-E-Mart saying something about hiring a getaway driver. Luckily, it is hard to tell the difference between the blindingly orange Bengal jerseys and the blindingly orange prison jumpsuits that the players wear on off-days. Somewhere, a Raiders fan, a Portland Jail Blazers fan, Jamal Lewis, and Stephen Jackson are holding a support group and crying into each other's arms.4 Sorry guys, your identities as the no-goodniks of sports have been spectacularly usurped.

The way things are going, Cincinattica may need to move from the NFL to the Ohio Penal League next year in order to field a team. Eight out of fifty-three players have been arrested at some point--or, in the case of Chris Henry, several times. Doing the math, that is fifteen percent of the roster--approximately equivalent to 133 GHS students getting arrested. So, um, you remember how in grade school D.A.R.E. class they asked you to look at the two people next to you and imagine that one of them will become a smoker? Well, look at your classroom right now. Then walk to two classrooms on either side of your door. Now, imagine every single student in them getting arrested over a 9-month period.5

But the most amazing thing is that even with the sizable number of players splitting their attention between football and their impending trials, the Cin-mates have managed to stay in the playoff hunt. At press time, they sat at 8-5, on the inside track for an AFC Wild Card spot.6 Meanwhile, we are stuck with this useless Packers team, possessing a mere 5-8 record and a single, lonely felon.7 And Koren Robinson, our local liaison to Cell Block C, was suspended after a mere four weeks with the team, leaving him more free time to spend at home with his potted plants.8 What does this tell us? If you want to win in the NFL, simply sign more criminals and lowlifes.9 Or, if your moral standards are too high for that, simply buy your linebackers some steroids.

The San Diego Chargers seem to have taken the second route. Lost amid the hoopla surrounding football deity LaDanian Tomlinson's record-breaking season is the fact that last year's Defensive Rookie of the Year, Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman, was suspended for four games earlier this year for a positive steroid test. For many of you, this is news, and that is a crying shame. How Merriman's suspension managed to fly under the radar is beyond me, especially just a year after Rafael Palmerio got caught red-handed with his stash of hypodermic needles.10 Had Merriman chosen to be a catcher rather than a linebacker, he would be a national scapegoat right now. As it is, he has gotten absolutely no negative press--in fact, I heard Phil Simms applauding the way he managed to bonce back from his suspension without missing a beat. I think I just threw up in my mouth.

Why the double standard? Every time a baseball player tests positive for 'roids, he is crucified by talk radio, sportswriters, and sportswriter-impersonators (Scoop Jackson and Skip Bayless come to mind). However, an NFL player can get busted juicing and actually get praised for coming back so strong. If eight members of an NBA team got arrested, rather than eight football players, the fallout would be enough to crush a very large building.

(Hey, speaking of the NBA, it's time for the Isiah Thomas Watch! At press time, Isiah's Knicks were 8-15, a game and a half out of the playoffs in the putrid Eastern Conference. Knicks fans are now booing the team during home games. Good times.)11

(Random NBA Tangent #2: Allen Iverson is finished in Philadelphia. Hey, Isiah, it's another overpaid, ball-hogging point guard! And even though the Knicks have no cap space, no tradeable assets, and are out of draft picks for the foreseeable future, Billy King is easily the second-dumbest GM in sports, so something just might work out. Watching Thomas and King negotiate would eerily remind me of watching two monkeys flinging their poo at each other. Who will get the better trade when both have built a career out of getting horribly fleeced? Stay tuned.)12

At any rate, I hope you all enjoy your New Year's break. And when Carson Palmer is arrested for trying to rob a Kwik-E-Mart, don't say I didn't warn you.13

1 Or, I'm drunk and unaware of what I'm doing. Either way, you're laughing. Everybody wins.
2 I use this phrase liberally. I could say what I wanted, the teacher/advisor censored it down, and it went to you, the loyal reader. Through both teachers who served as advisors that year, we fought many epic battles about what I could and couldn't say in press that reached 14-year-old eyes. And to date, I love and thank them both. Both of them were great to work with--any lesser teacher would've kicked me off staff for the things I tried to get away with. But they had faith in me and wanted me to succeed, while not costing them their jobs. If you're reading this, thank you a million times.
3 I'm still not sure of the correct spelling of that word. In fact, I'm not quite sure there is one. Let's just be glad that this trend of political correctness died an unceremonious death. In fact, this was the last year that it was seriously used. And I'd like to think that I deserve some of the credit for that.
4 I love the mental image of Stephen Jackson and Jamal Lewis crying into one another's arms. I'd like to imagine that, somehow, firearms and strippers would be prominently involved in this tender moment.
5 Since it's three years later, let's update the analogy. I now go to a university (Wisconsin-Oshkosh) with an enrollment of roughly 12,000 students. UWO students reading this, imagine if the University Police arrested 1,800 students over a school year. Staggering. And Officer Trent Morgan, having noticed this while checking my status to make sure I'm not underage drinking, just got a new goal in life.
6 The team lost its last three games, staggered to an 8-8 finish, and missed the playoffs. A crowning moment. The first time I ever jinxed a team in print. O'Neal was the last run-in with the law the team had. If you've forgotten the details of the team-wide crime spree that season, catch up here.
7 Similarly, the Pack won their last three games to finish a matching 8-8, and also miss the playoffs. The lesson here? With my predictions, you get what you pay for.
8 Had to come up with a printable synonym for marijuana. Kind of a weak reference. With three more years under my belt, and a considerably stronger history with Mary Jane, I could've done a lot better.
9 A year later, the Patriots almost went undefeated while blatantly videotaping the signals of opposing teams. For once, I nailed this one on the head.
10 Another weak point I noticed in re-reading this column. I really wish I had written this differently--emphasized how Palmerio's career was basically ended by his bust, how his legacy was ruined forever, how he probably will be blackballed from the Hall of Fame for it. Hindsight really is 20/20.
11 A month earlier, I had chronicled Thomas's misadventures as Knicks' GM, and named him the Worst General Manager of All-Time. The Knicks finished 33-49, and missed the playoffs.
12 Predictably, King got about 25 cents on the dollar for AI, sending him to Denver for Andre Miller, Joe Smith, and two 2007 first-round picks. After further trades, the two first-rounders turned into the injury-ridden Jason Smith and the Europe-bound Derrick Byars. Another pick I nailed--though calling Billy King getting butchered in a trade is kind of like picking against the freshman girl in the drinking contest. Sure, you got it right, but who wouldn't?
13 Palmer never was arrested. But hopefully you caught the obvious sarcasm in that string of jokes.

Hope you all enjoyed your turkey: a few post-Thanksgiving treats

To answer your questions...

1. No, I'm not dead.
2. No, I didn't forget about this blog.
3. No, the baby isn't mine.
4. Yes, I will be posting more regularly.

Was either back home, or visiting my girlfriend's family all of last week, so I didn't have much free time to give you any fun new content. Though I did manage to come down with an ear infection, and was briefly unable to hear out of my left ear--I can now, but it's pitch distorted, which annoys me to no end. Anyways, this afternoon I plan on commenting on some of the goings-on of the past week--just something quick. Tonight, I might turn back the clock by sharing some classic Colin and uploading a column I wrote for my high-school paper when I was a senior (I found them all on an old jump drive I found tucked away in a drawer yesterday). Later this week, I'm hoping to get a Fantasy Football Awards up--but I have a term paper due Wednesday, so that's assuming that I don't either cut my head off or swear off writing forever first.

On top of all of that, we have less than three weeks until my 21st birthday. If you're going to be in either Oshkosh or Milwaukee that week or weekend, let me know--if things fall into place, we're looking at a possible 5-night, 4-day-long celebration. That scribbling sign you are hearing is my liver hastily making picket signs in protest. Should be fun.

Anyways...

Charlie Weis loses job, none are shocked.
I find myself wondering how he is going to quash his massive appetite now. Perhaps with a year or two off, we might see his gunt shrink down from "of biblical proportions" to simply "humongous." But in all seriousness, if you're all for fairness this was long overdue. Weis got two more years than Ty Willingham did, had a three-year run of futility that trumped Ty's two years, and showed a general inability to win without Brady Quinn. Hell, he even managed to wreck a Clausen brother before the NFL, which is a new record. My prediction: fellow Bill Belichek protege Eric Mangini brings him on board to run the Browns offense next year, try to salvage Quinn's career, and break the NFL record for "gravitational pull resulting from a coaching staff."

Detroit Lions Apparently Aren't Any Good
I've been saying it for months now: the Packer defense is feast or famine. If they can force turnovers, they look all-world. If you protect the ball against them, you're gonna win. Facing resident Pick Boy Matthew Stafford, it was bound to be a Thansgiving feast for them. The big shocker is that the offensive line did not play, well, offensively. Could it be, as Cris Collinsworth suggested, that the Pack line is finally coming together? Or, could it be that they were playing the Detroit Hello Kitties? Methinks it was the second one.

At any rate, we've still got the Bears, Seahawks, and Cardinals remaining. Two wins against that bunch and we should be in the playoffs. Thank God for the NFC West.

Vince Young Wins Battle Of Non-Week-1-Starting Quarterbacks
Oh, wait, him and Leinart both started in the National Championship a few years ago? Really? I hadn't heard anything about that...

At any rate, Young might just end the season undefeated as a starter, and still miss the playoffs. Never seen that before.

And on the opposite end of the quarterback spectrum...
...the observation of the week is brought to you by ESPN.com's DJ Gallo.

27, 26, 26, 24

Those are the interception totals Jay Cutler, Jake Delhomme, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez are on pace for, respectively(/disrespectively). This decade only two quarterbacks have thrown 25 or more interceptions in a season: Brett Favre in 2005 and Vinny Testaverde in 2000. And it's been since 1983 that three quarterbacks threw 25 or more in the same season (Lynn Dickey, Joe Ferguson and Richard Todd).

With Cutler, Stafford and Sanchez all set as the "future" for their teams, and with the Panthers incredibly having no better option than Delhomme (think about that and try not to have your brain explode), all four will likely play out the season and reach or eclipse those numbers. We may be witnessing a season we can one day tell our grandchildren about. When they're bad. And we want to make them cry.

It's worth noting that neither Jamarcus Russell nor Derek Anderson, widely regarded as the two worst quarterbacks in the league (if not two of the worst quarterbacks not named Craig Whelihan to ever step under center) are not on this list. That's how bad the NFL is this season.

(So, is it possible for a team with an iffy defense and no offensive line to cruise to the top wild card spot? Absolutely!)

Fantasy Update
Two weeks ago, 6 of 8 teams in my league ranged in record from 6-4 to 4-6. One was 7-3, one was 3-7. Today? At 7-4, my Dwayne Bowe Warriors have a playoff spot locked up. And trail by one game in our divison. We're up 5 points (thanks to Miles Austin's huge turkey day, and no thanks to Michael Turner's late addition to Atlanta's lineup, leaving Jason Snelling on the bench), with Maroney and Carney going against Reggie Bush and Shockey. Conversely, the team one game up on me in the division can lose with a 35-point effort from Drew Brees. In other words, both contests are up in the air.

(And for what it's worth, if I finish first in overall points--as I'm on pace to do--but miss a bye week thanks to our new divisional system, I plan on killing several kittens. And if I drop a fluke first-rounder because of this, I might throw in some babies. And if my team goes on a post-playoff-loss run that would've carried me to the title with the bye week, don't be surprised when you see "Crazed Wisconsin Fantasy Football Player Goes on Five-State Killing Spree" in the headlines. Just saying.)

Monday, November 16, 2009

Music Monday: The Top 5 Concerts of My Life (So Far)

If you're a semi-frequent Twitter user, you're familiar with #MusicMonday. I've never gotten involved, but I've always wanted to. So enjoy my completely non-sports-related Music Monday offering, The Top 5 Concerts of My Life So Far (with video evidence):

Dishonorable Mention: Rise Against, Lollapalooza '09 (video: Prayer of the Refugee)
Don't take this the wrong way. I love Rise Against. In a music scene littered with far too many Nickelbacks and Hinders; bands who play crappy, corporate rock devoid of any real passion, Rise Against is one of the few bands today who still have actual testosterone. Re-Education (through Labor) is a staple of my workout playlist on my iPod. If I was ever holding a rally of some kind, I would be playing Prayer of the Refugee in the background. Quite simply, they can turn it up like no other band in the past decade.

So this should've kicked major ass. In theory, Rise Against is the ultimate live band. Live shows are about more than just the music being played: they're about the energy, the interaction between band and crowd, the special effects. It's a combination of everything, coming together in a rich tapestry of ass-kicking and name-taking. But this show fell flat. No energy. Minimal crowd interaction. If you watch the above video and queue up the guitar solo, you'll notice that they're not even bothering to fake it--the music is piped in, and they are just there for the paycheck and the afterparty. This show was the adult equivalent to discovering that Santa Claus wasn't real, or having a girlfriend admit that she regularly faked orgasms. Took my hopes, and smashed them.

Now, on to the actual list:

5. Dropkick Murphy's, Summerfest 2009
Couldn't find a good video of this one, but this is proof positive of how much a crowd can influence a show. DKM was going on at the same time as The Offspring--me and a few friends decided to check both out, and play it on the fly based on which one was better. The Offspring was overcrowded--by which I mean you were packed nut to butt all the way back to the food stands. The only way to get into position to actually see the band was to get there in the mid-afternoon and pray. Get there later on, as we did since I had to work, and you're stuck out of earshot of the band, with a group of passerbys who aren't really sure who is supposed to be playing. Dropkick, on the other hand, seemed to be Diehards Only Night--which meant that everyone knew the songs, was into the show, and as is to be predicted with a Celtic punk band, was piss drunk and unashamed of the fact. Just a great time all around.

4. Snoop Dogg, Lollapalooza 2009 (video: Gin & Juice)

A friend of mine won all-weekend passes to Lollapalooza this summer, and me and him drove down to Chicago for an experience we could not have ever predicted. Coming in, other than Rise Against, Snoop was the show I wanted to see the most. He's one of those shows that you don't think of when you think of the "Guys I'd love to see live" list, but when the opportunity comes up to see Snoop Dogg, you don't pass it up.

And I'm glad I didn't. Combine the act (Snoop, one of the godfathers of West Coast rap) with the crowd (90% white, 95% stoned out of their minds) and you've got a recipe for unintentional hilarity. Some of the best moments:
-The repeated Old School references by a number of random people around me (Come on, bring your green hat!). Would you hear this at a Snoop show at The Rave? Not in a million years.
-The several obligatory crowd shots on the Jumbotron. "Nothin' But a G Thang" played to a pan-over of white college kids and yuppies? Slayed me.
-I would not be far off to estimate that five kilos of weed were smoked during the duration of the show. You couldn't even see behind the crowd at one point--not because it was so packed, but because there was a massive cloud of smoke obscuring your view.
-Continuing this trend, the guy stuck in front of me for most of the show. He was white, fat, and wore nothing but a throwback Jordan jersey--leaving a full view of his abundant bacne. Some of the worst white trash I've ever seen, bar none. But he lit up 6 joints to himself during the show (seriously--I counted), and as repulsive as he is I've gotta respect someone who could do that in 95 degree heat, with no water anywhere in sight, and not die.

3. Reel Big Fish, Summerfest 2007 (video: Trendy. Far from my favorite RBF song, but the only video I could find from that show)
Put it this way: they covered Enter Sandman, and segued into In The Air Tonight. Name another band who can cover Metallica and Phil Collins back to back without sounding retarded. Go ahead. I'll wait.

You can't. And the crowd factor is off the charts for this one, too. People dancing on picnic tables, people singing along into their beer bottles, you name it. "Fun" is the only way to describe it.

Major penalty points for playing "Sell Out" and "Beer" as encores, even though they had already played both songs during the setlist though. Huge letdown. Any aspiring musicians out there, take a note: do not EVER do this. This show would've ranked as #2 easily otherwise. If there's any chance of an encore, have something ready for it. Don't just re-hash something we've already seen.

(And as a side note, finding videos of Summerfest shows is harder than I would've ever thought. Milwaukee, we need to step up our copyright infringement. I'm disappointed in us.)

2. Kaiser Chiefs, Lollapalooza 2009 (video: I Predict a Riot)

If Rise Against marked my biggest disappointment of the summer, Kaiser Chiefs was the best pleasant surprise. I was not a fan of theirs, and my friend and I went mostly because there was nobody else at that time slot we wanted to see. It was hot, it was the middle of the afternoon, and they flat-out rocked it. Coming out into the crowd to play, drinking beers onstage (and insulting Budweiser in the process), climbing up the stage, and even saluting one of their road crew, who was retiring after the show in the above video (This one's for you. Take a bow... and don't forget to go fucking mental). There is nothing in the world more awesome than a band having the time of their lives on stage, and being a part of it.

1. Red Hot Chili Peppers, Bradly Center, 2007 (video: Can't Stop)
Despite the crappy quality, I picked this video for a reason: this song completely made the show. The band members came out one by one for about 5 minutes, joining in to the jam session, the video picks up as Anthony Kiedis walks onstage (the huge ovation), and the band transitions seamlessly into the intro to Can't Stop as the lights turn on and the crowd cheers at exactly the right moment. I still get goosebumps watching that video.

Random Thoughts: 11/16/09

Packers Top Cowboys, Remain Alive in Playoff Hunt
-The Packers aren't as good as people thought, and they're not as bad as people thought. They're somewhere in between, or outside. Yes, I know I am not making sense.

The team goes as the defense goes. We've got an all-or-nothing defense. Either they're creating pressure and forcing turnovers, in which case they can beat anyone in the league, or they're not, in which case they'll struggle to beat anyone.

-The Cowboys--hell, the entire NFC East--aren't as good as people think. Can we just get rid of the two coastal divisions? The entirety of the power balance in the conference is in the North or South--for further evidence see the Cowboys rolling over this week/letting Philly and KC hang around waay too late, the Giants laying four eggs in a row, or the entire NFC West.

-Here's the way the NFC Playoffs shape up so far:
Byes: #1 New Orleans and #2 Minnesota
#6 Green Bay at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Arizona

Try picking that mess. I dare you. The 6 seed just shut down the 3 seed, the 4 seed may or may not be a product of a putrid divisional schedule, and the Falcons and Giants are looming (also 5-4 like GB and PHI, but knocked out by tiebreaking procedures for this situation).

Brandon Jennings: The Next AI?
-I am completely willing to admit that I was wrong about Jennings. Coming out of the draft, I couldn't stop thinking about his awful numbers in Italy, his reputation as a slacker, the fact that he went to Italy instead of college because of piss-poor grades and test scores. I mean come on, we're talking about a special kind of dumb if you're a McDonalds All-American, yet can't get any colleges to accept you. Are we certain that he spelled his name correctly on the ACT?

Now? I don't give a fuck if he spelled "Jennings" with a 6. The list of rookies who have put up 55 points are as follows: Jennings, Wilt Chamberlain, Rick Barry, Earl Monroe, Elgin Baylor. That's some serious company. The last rookie to go off for 50 or more? Allen Iverson, in 1997. Before that? Elvin Hayes in 1968.

-We need to get dude a supporting cast. I argued several months ago that the reason Iverson developed into the player he was (selfish, ball-hogging, but the best 1 on 5 player in history) was because he spent the majority of his career with Eric Snow or Samuel Dalembert as his de facto #2 option. Jennings is in a similar situation--Andrew Bogut is not a legitimate second option. If the Bucks were smart, they'd try and get some young pieces for Michael Redd. But they're not.

Stephen Jackson Jumps Into The Stands from Golden State to Charlotte
-From Twitter favorite NotMikeDunleavy: "This Stephen Jackson trade alters the entire balance of power among teams that will win less than 30 games."
-Also from Faux Mike: "W's told Cavs they wanted significant talent in exchange for SJ. Cavs' response? 'We have none.'"
-Speaking of which, since when do Vladdy Radmanovic and Raja Bell constitute "significant talent?"
-One last thought: pretty sure this isn't the "serious contender" that SJ wanted to get traded to this summer. Hey, we can't all get what we want.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Dissecting the NFL Season and picking for Week 10

Interesting results in ESPN SportsNation's mid-season poll today.
-Four of the eight divisions in the NFL are already 90% certain or better. And Arizona's 89.2% basically makes it five of eight. The lesson? Evening the economic playing field does not guarantee parity. It just evens the economic playing field. As Eric Mangini and co. prove, you just can't fix stupid.
-The best percentage for a team finishing third in their division's poll? The New York Football Giants, with 5.4%. In second behind them? The Dolphins, with 2%. The lesson? It's a very top-and-bottom-heavy league this year. The best teams are really, really good; and the worst teams suck something awful.
-The Cardinals are given 89.2% in their division, and 1.8% in the NFC altogether. The lesson? The NFC West sucks. Hard.
-The Vikings are second to the Saints in the "who will win the NFC" poll, but lead the "who will win the Super Bowl" poll. The lesson? Brett Favre cannot be beaten in the Super Bowl.

The disparity in the league is a mixed blessing. As entertaining as the first half of the season has been, the second half probably won't keep up that excitement. Most divisions should be clinched with a few weeks to spare. And the dregs of the league have little chance against anyone competitive, so the odds of seeing a playoff race spoiled by a plucky underdog are not good.

On that uplifting note, let's get to the picks.

Bears (+3.5) over 49ers
Can't believe the Niners can be favored after losing four games in a row against anyone not from St. Louis or Cleveland. Gregg Easterbrook's analysis of the Niners three weeks in a row now (kowtowing to Michael Crabtree sent the team the message that the team-first approach of Mike Singletary was all a load of bullshit) is looking more accurate every week.

Jaguars (+7) over JETS
I smell another Mark Sanchez clunker. Every few weeks he's good for a completion percentage in the 40s, three or more picks, and a QB rating below the Derek Anderson Line. Just a hunch he's due for another one.

Broncos (-4.5) over REDSKINS
Dan Snyder is about three weeks away from outlawing booing at any home games. But hey, any time you're 2-4 against teams entering the game with no wins, it's just not your year.

Bengals (+7) over STEELERS
Both teams are 6-2, the Bengals won the first matchup, but the Steelers are favored by 7? Really? Seems kind of high. Steelers win by 3, but fail to cover.

TITANS (-7) over Bills
It is Thursday afternoon, and it would not surprise me in the slightest if a Bills assistant just told a surprised Dick Jauron that Vince Young, not Kerry Collins, is now starting for the Titans.

(In other words, the Bills might be the worst-coached team not involving Art Shell in recent memory, and the odds of them having a successful game plan to stop Young are about the same odds of Jauron getting struck by lightning on the sideline.)

VIKINGS (-16.5) over Lions
These next two lines are a combined 31 points. And you know what? They could be a combined 60 points and I still wouldn't blink on either one. I predict multiple interceptions for Matt Stafford, a four-sack performance from Jared Allen, and a Daunte Culpepper sighting before the end of the third quarter.

Saints (-14.5) over RAMS
Actually, let's adjust this line a little bit to make it fair.

Saints (-35) over RAMS
Better. The Rams would be a contending team in the Sun Belt Conference, maybe. They're about four or five great drafts away. I mean, without Steven Jackson, who else do they have that starts for more than two or three other teams around the league--if that?

PANTHERS (+3) over Falcons
Yes, Jake Delhomme scares me. But the Carolina rushing attack against the Falcons' rush defense scares me more.

Buccaneers (+10) over DOLPHINS
This one doesn't feel like it's getting any further than 7 points either way. And Josh Freeman might be competent. Luckily, we've got a mega-high line to toy with this week while we figure it out.

Chiefs (+1.5) over RAIDERS
I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Seahawks (+9) over CARDINALS
The Seahawks aren't that bad. Take out the Seneca Wallace era, and they're right in the division hunt. Worth mentioning.

CHARGERS (+1) over Eagles
This line is Vegas's way of throwing it's hands up in the air and saying "We have no idea who will win this game." Even when he was lying on the ground concussed, Brian Westbrook looked more alive than LaDanian Tomlinson most weeks. But I see Rivers airing it out early and often for the win in this one.

PACKERS (+3) over Cowboys
Aaron Rodgers on a mission a week after throwing three picks? Check. Mark Tauscher back in the lineup after missing the second half last week? Check. Tony Romo, yipping and ready to throw this one away if it's close? Check. Wade Phillips, ready to make enough questionable calls to give Romo said opportunity to choke? Check.

COLTS (-2.5) over Patriots
The Patriots are good. But the Colts are on another level in the AFC this year. I'm riding them until they prove me wrong.

Ravens (-11) over BROWNS
Monday Night Football's first snoozer of the year. The third line that can't be high enough this week. I predict the return of Brady Quinn at some point in this game.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Economics of Baseball 101 (or Why the JJ Hardy Trade Makes Doug Melvin Look Mildly Retarded)

So, despite my Internet monicker (featured in the url of this particular blog), I've focused largely on football since starting up. This is largely due to the crappiness of baseball played in my home area this year, coupled with the fact that it's football season. That, and the Yankees winning the World Series (which deserves it's own hateful little column). But today's news that the Brewers had dealt J.J. Hardy to the Twins for Carlos Gomez, I couldn't let slide.

Doug Melvin, you ought to be ashamed of yourself for this one.

Is it a completely indefensible trade? Hardly. With Alciedes Escobar around, Hardy was expendable. And Gomez allows the Crew to part ways with Mike Cameron and his $10m salary which, when combined with the $4m the Brewers no longer have to pay Hardy, can be used to pursue a free agent pitcher or two. From the opportunity cost angle, the move makes sense. However, there are two major flaws to this argument.

1. It's easy to overthink things in sports. And when you boil this trade down to it's bare fundamentals, it's crazy. We're giving up a shortstop two years removed from the All-Star Game for a fourth outfielder with a career line that suggests a ceiling of .260-15-75. That's not even close to even.

And that's the thing. Maybe we're clearing out space for need areas, but who says we can't do that in a trade that actually gets us something of value? The 2009 season ended two days ago. We've got five months until any actual games are played. You're telling me we couldn't wait a few months for some better offers to come in? As I Twittered after hearing of the deal, this is a classic example of a team being in such a hurry to unload a player that they forget that they are supposed to actually get something in return.

(Then again, since the Bucks basically dealt Richard Jefferson for a Gatorade bucket and two cases of athletic tape, maybe the Brewers just felt peer pressure to crush their fans with a one-sided trade. You never know.)

2. Hey, $14m to spend for the free agent pitcher pool! Sounds awesome, right. Here's Jayson Stark of ESPN.com's take on the class of 2010. Some quotables:
"I don't think there's one [starting] pitcher in this entire group I'd invest a lot of money in. Not one."--A GM on the upcoming free-agent class
"Risky" … "weak" … "terrible" … "mediocre" … "thin" … "roll-of-the-dice" … "one-year-contract" … and "fortunate" -- because "these guys are going to get overpaid."--Taken from a survey of MLB general managers asked to describe the free-agent class in one word
"There are some guys in this group who are dependable. Except they're dependable to give you 5.00 ERAs and 180 innings. And that's not what you want to build a staff around."--an American League executive
In other words: just up the Milwaukee sports scene's alley! Just what we need--the pitching version of Jeffrey Hammonds! I will now smash my head in a George Foreman grill.

Yes, the Brewers can still trade for a pitcher who might be better than the crop of yo-yos on the open market. But we just gave away our most valuable trading chip for virtually nothing! The deal makes even less sense if we're planning on trading for a pitcher--instead of giving up something of value to us for said pitcher, we could've given up Hardy, who we apparently have no interest in keeping around.

Three years ago, we were very much on the right track. Even the playoff push two years ago was beautiful to watch. But it seems like since then, Melvin and the rest of the front office staff have been making decisions that lead me to believe they are happy with .500 ball. The thing is: I'm not, and most of the Brewer faithful aren't either.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Random Thoughts: 11/2

-Watching Brett Favre's two games against the Packers was frustrating not because we lost, or not because of his combined seven touchdowns in the two games (Side note: shoot me now. Please). The most painful thing to see was his zero interceptions. It's like seeing your psycho ex-wife in public for the first time, waiting for the inevitable point where she always made a scene in public... only it never comes. We knew that Favre was capable of stretches of greatness. What is unfamiliar to any Packer fan who has followed the team this decade is that he has thrown only three interceptions in seven games. Just unreal.

-As if that wasn't bad enough, my fantasy team ran into Chris Johnson this week. And Owen Daniels, who has been the Bigfoot-common "consistently spectacular tight end" all year. Now I'm sitting at 5-3, tied for first in the division, with Daniels dropped (he's out for the year) and Brian Westbrook (my first-round pick) in limbo. Not a fun weekend football-wise.

-So let's get it straight... Peyton Manning is the most clutch quarterback in the NFL, the Red Sox are the overpriced team that can't get out of the ALDS, the Yankees are trying to get the playoff monkey off their backs, and Alex Rodriguez is delivering clutch hits at a record pace. Apparently, it's Bizarro 2004, and nobody bothered to tell me. Johnny Damon is even clean-shaven. Who knew?

-It's about damn time that Carolina took the game out of Jake Delhomme's hands. Led by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers proved that they are capable of winning--as long as they don't let Delhomme beat them.

-The Giants just aren't good. Now we know.

-Indianapolis gave us quite a scare, almost blowing one to San Fran. It marked the first win by an incumbent #2 in my Power Poll (Baltimore went 0-3 while holding the spot). We're far from out of the woods though--the possibility of a "#2 curse" is still very real. Stay tuned.