Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe presents The Your Name Here NFL Power Rankings: Week 8 Edition (Part II)

This afternoon, we took a look at Part I of the Power Rankings--or, as it could've been called, "The Anti-Playoffs Revisited." Tonight, we shift our focus from the processed lunch meat of the NFL to the Kobe beef--or at least the sirloin.

(Mmm... sirloin)

(Parentheses denotes rank in the Week 3 Power Rankings)

I Can't Take You Seriously As A Contender
16. Philadelphia (15)
They lost to the fucking Raiders. I can't take them seriously as a contender since that.

(When London Fletcher's knee raped Brian Westbrook in the head, I considered dousing myself in kerosene and finding a fireplace to jump into. Worst fantasy injury of the year, save for that guy sticking a giant fork in LaDanian Tomlinson's back. Take out the Saints Week 2, and they've got one of the easiest-looking schedules in recent memory. Sorry, Philly.)

15. NY Jets (8)
If your rookie quarterback is at double-digit interceptions at this point in the season, I can't take you seriously as a contender.

(Has there ever been a more hyped trade that wasn't really all that impressive before Braylon Edwards went to the Jets? So you're adding the most stone-handed WR in the league? Congrats, guys.

14. Arizona (19)
If you're playing in the NFC West, even if you're leading the division, I can't take you seriously as a (Super Bowl) contender. Though, as stated with the Niners, I cheerfully look forward to betting against you in the playoffs. Worst division in football history. Easily.

13. Dallas (12)
If you're quarterback and coach both graduated from the Karl Malone School of Inexplicably and Incurably Getting The Yips During Big Games, I can't take you seriously as a contender.

(Yes, this is two straight Power Rankings in which I've compared Romo to Malone. No, nobody else seems to have picked up on this comparison. Yes, I will continue to beat it into the ground until everyone else notices. Any more questions?)

The Flawed Contenders
12. Baltimore (2)
They're 0-3 since I Power Ranked them 2nd and deemed them the Dyansty to Watch for the coming decade. The lesson, as always? There's a reason I'm not doing this shit for ESPN Insider. Though I still think they're a legit contender, as long as they can figure out how to stop the pass.

11. Atlanta (9)
They do everything good, but nothing really great. They beat the teams they should, but can't quite compete with the elites. Most of their players fit the team well: very good, but comes up just short of great. Then again, compared to the Joey Harrington-led team of two years ago, you can't really complain about that.

10. Green Bay (11)
It's frustrating, really: give this team a passably good offensive line and they're one of the top two teams in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers has emerged as an All-Pro quarterback, the defense has turnover-forcing ability all around, Ryan Grant is good enough to be threatening... only the line can't keep anyone at bay.

(Unintentional Comedy of the Week: The article in the Journal-Sentinel the other day praising Allen Barbre for coming on the past two weeks after a shaky start--but neglecting to mention that the opponents these two weeks were Detroit and Cleveland, who are a combined 2-13.)

(Tragedy of the Week: The pain that Jared "The Mullet" Allen will inflict on Rodgers this weekend. The best pass rusher in the league against the worst pass protection in the league? Yipes.)

Looking Legitimate
9. Houston (17)
Best play-calling in the league. They've finally hit the epiphany. "Hey, we've got Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson, two of the most explosive players in the league. Let's give the ball to Slaton to keep the defense respecting the run, and have Johnson go deep and air it out to him to spread them out. When you've simply got the two most talented players on the field, maybe you should utilize one of them as close to 100% of the time as possible!"

8. Cincinatti (6)
7. Pittsburgh (16)
These two might as well be a coin flip. Both 5-2, within five points of each other in differential, Cincy won by 3 at home during Week 3 (home field is generally considered to be worth a field goal, at least when determining point spreads. If, of course, gambling were legal). They both have byes this week, then meet in Week 10. That game could decide the AFC North.

Contenders, Not Favorites
6. Minnesota (7)
Brett Favre has won them one game (the last-play Hail Mary against SF, a play only Favre or possibly Joe Montana could make out of every quarterback to ever play the game) and lost them another one (this past weekend against PIT, when his scoop-and-score and pick-six singlehandedly handed the game to the Men of Steel, plays only Favre or possibly Tony Romo could make out of every quarterback to play the game). These guys are just as 6-1 with Sage Rosenfels at the helm.

5. NY Giants (4)
They're ranked this high based on brand name and won-loss record. Losing to the Saints was expected, and they outplayed Arizona but were done in by the return of uber-shaky Elisha Manning. If he rebounds, they're in good shape. If he doesn't, they're in trouble--and with Philly, Atlanta and Denver sandwiching the Chargers and a bye, trouble could come very soon and very heavily.

The "Nobody Believed In Us!" Division
4. New England (13)
Quarterback coming back off of knee surgery... missed the playoffs last year... lukewarm start... and two resounding wins. Yes, they can pound the crappy teams into the ground. And they've got quality wins over Atlanta and Baltimore. But they come back from their bye week with Miami twice sandwiched around a very tough slate: Indy, the Jets (who beat them back in Week 2) and New Orleans. Run the table, and they probably sit at #1. Drop all three, and they're looking up at the Jets.

3. Denver (5)
Undefeated, with wins over Cincy, Dallas, and New England. Gotta give them respect now. Baltimore and Pittsburgh back to back now--two possible stumbling blocks. I don't see them running the table, but I don't see San Diego, Oakland or Kansas City rising from the dregs to challenge them. And three games remaining against the latter two teams guarantees them a nine-win season, which is more than anyone took them for at the beginning.

The Unquestionable Best
2. Indianapolis (3)
After two ugly wins to start the season, the Ponies have been on cruise control. Peyton Manning, known for his inability to carry his team early in his career, looks like a goddamned assassin on the field. He's reached "Brady in '07, Favre in '96" territory: you absolutely know he is going to crush you, it's just a matter of when, where, and how hard. And Reggie Wayne looks about as hard to cover as a ghost.

1. New Orleans (1)
They're averaging almost 40 points per game. In games in which Drew Brees tops 250 yards per passing, they've scored at least 40 every time. They've got the best quarterback of the decade, two underrated running backs, a gamebreaking tight end, and can go 4 wide with guys who would start on most teams in the league. And they hold this spot for the second time in a row.

Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe presents The Your Name Here NFL Power Rankings: Week 8 Edition (Part I)

They're back like they forgot somethin'. The second of three installments of the Power Rankings (no, not Power Rangers) this year. Considering we're more than twice as far along as we were last time, things have changed. As always, we start at the bottom and work our way up. And as always, these are guaranteed 100% accurate or your money back.

(Parentheses denotes rank in the Week 3 Power Rankings)

The Cam Cameron Division
32. St. Louis (26)
Proof positive that there is such a thing as minor league football.

31. Tennessee (21)
Remember my pre-season preview, when I mentioned that Kerry Collins had a shot at finishing the season better than Joe Montana in career passing yards? At the time, we didn't realize something: Kerry Collins is completely, unequivocally done. Golf clap for Kerry. You had a good run. But any time you toss up a 2/14 for negative yardage, with a QB rating of 0, it's time to consider hanging 'em up.

30. Tampa Bay (30)
You'll find a common thread among the bottom dozen or so teams on this list: truly awful quarterbacking. The lesson here, as always? When the head is mutated, the entire body is going to be a failure. And the lesson from Tampa's season? Josh Johnson isn't good. I covered this on Monday. Let's stop talking like he's capable. He's now 0-5 as a starter. If there was talent there, it would've shown itself by now.

The Fraternity Of Failure
29. Cleveland (32)
As much as I've bagged on Jamarcus Russell this year, Derek Anderson has been decidedly worse since having the starting job thrust upon him by Brady Quinn's suckitude. Here's the quote from Eric Mangini: “I think he gives us the best chance right now to move the ball.” I'm not sure if that's a reflection of Mangini being dropped on his head as a child or Quinn being that much of a bust. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.

28. Oakland (29)
I just spent 10 minutes sitting here, trying to think of a way to write about Oakland without using the words "Jamarcus Russell." And I couldn't do it. Give them Tom Brady, and this is a playoff team. Give them JR or the immortal Bruce Gradkowski and, well, they're in the Fraternity of Failure.

27. Washington (24)
When you can go 2-4 playing against six teams who are coming into your game winless... well, you're bound to end up in the bottom 5 teams. And why hasn't anyone brought back the "lipstick on a pig" analogy made famous by Sarah Palin to describe the Sherman Lewis situation? It doesn't matter if God himself is calling the plays--if you've got the personnel that Chainsaw Dan Snyder has assembled trying to execute them, you're not going to end up any better than 6-10.

26. Kansas City (31)
Over/under on "Weeks until some bored high school kid in Kansas City starts taping pictures of Larry Johnson to the back of the milk cartons sold in the lunch room:" Off the board. I'm shocked it hasn't happened already.

25. Detroit (25)
The biggest differences between last year's Lions and this year's Lions?
-A new head coach, who assigns parking spaces for his players (parking: it's serious business!)
-This year, the teams surrounding them are considerably worse, so they aren't entrenched at 32 in this spot
-Thanks to the Washington Redskins, these guys aren't going down in history

24. Carolina (27)
The worst a team with a running game this good can possibly look. I'd love to get inside John Fox's mind. I can't imagine what would force a coach to think "Okay, I've got a solid offensive line, two great running backs, and a quarterback who has a permanent case of deer-in-the-headlitis... I think we need to throw at least 2/3rds of the time to be successful."

A Whiff Of Talent
23. Seattle (22)
They're better than their record. Remember, these guys had to deal with the Seneca Wallace Traveling Sideshow for three weeks. They're still 2-1 without him. Then again, they failed to score a touchdown in that one loss, and their wins came against Jacksonville and St. Louis.

(The verdict? They're not a playoff team, but we'll keep them out of the FoF. For now.)

22. Miami (28)
The Miami Fire Department has issued a new operating rule: in the event that a building is burning and a mother has to toss her child out of the building to save him, Ted Ginn Jr. is not allowed within two miles of said building. Just not a risk worth taking. They'd be a good 5 spots higher if they had decided to play a second 30 minutes against the Saints.

The Art Shell Memorial "Our Coach Is Killing Us!" Division
21. San Diego (10)
Maybe we should make it the "Our Coach And Allegedly Hall-Of-Fame Caliber Running Back Are Killing Us!" Division. Here's a selection from the play-by-play of last week's Chiefs game. Keep in mind--this is at the goal line against a team with one fucking win this season.
2nd-2, KC2 1:50 L. Tomlinson rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain
3rd-1, KC1 1:23 L. Tomlinson rushed to the left for no gain
4th-1, KC1 0:37 L. Tomlinson rushed to the left for no gain

Brutal. Just brutal.

20. Buffalo (23)
I'm about 25% sure that Dick Jauron has stopped caring at this point. It's the only way to possibly explain this team's season so far. Every coaching job comes with postage paid.

19. Jacksonville (20)
Maybe the least entertaining team in the league. Outside of the NFC West, at least. I can't think of one legitimate reason to watch them. Even Jack Del Rio seems resigned to his eventual firing. It's like the Death Row of football teams.

The Jekyll & Hyde Division
18. San Francisco (18)
That smoldering wreck you see off to the side? That's the Shaun Hill bandwagon, wrapped around a lightpole. We're still piecing through the wreckage for survivors, but it doesn't look good. The sad thing is, these guys could still easily take the division, despite the crappiness of everyone they have throwing the ball. I'm excited to bet against them in the playoffs.

17. Chicago (14)
They've looked really good twice (Pittsburgh, Seattle), expectably good once (Detroit), expectably bad once (Atlanta) and excurciating twice (GB, Cincy). And Ced Benson's performance last week ranks at least a 9.3 on the Vengeance Scale. Just crippling for Bear fans. Not that I care or anything.

Coming soon: Part II

Monday, October 26, 2009

The First Annual NFL Playoffs of Putridity

Excellent idea from Eddie, one of my Facebook friends, during the Packers/Browns slaughter yesterday:

My roommate and I were just discussing how much fun it would be to have a reverse playoffs. Bottom 6 teams from each side play, loser moves on. Try to find the worst team in the league. And they look awful. It's almost comical how bad they look.


Awesome idea. Couldn't agree more. And this is the season to do it, too. This year, all the NFL's decade-long attempts at parity have been blown to hell. The league's top teams all look invincible, or close to it. And the bottom-feeders are just plain awful. There are eight teams who not only have little chance to win against any team not a fellow member of the Fraternity of Futility, but you can lay the obscene point spreads that these teams are getting every week with confidence.

And you know what? Say what you will about parity, it's a fun season. Fantasy scoring is through the roof, as you know who to load up on every week (and they work out ever week). Vegas is taking a beating never before seen. And we can do fun, gimmicky things like this column: a hypothetical look at how a worst-of-the-worst anti-playoffs would look.

Here are the rules: Predictably, it's like the real playoffs, only the exact opposite. Worst record gets the byes and road-field disadvantage, with point margin being the tiebreaker. And the loser advances, all the way to the loser-fail-all Toilet Bowl between the two most pitiful teams in the league. Oh, and if anyone out there wants to simulate this using the most updated rosters from Madden 2010, feel free to do so. Just make sure to leave a comment with your results.

And now, on to the seedings. For the NFC...

1. St. Louis (0-7, -151 scoring margin)
2. Tampa Bay (0-7, -107)
3. Detroit (1-5, -85)
4. Carolina (2-4, -51)
5. Washington (2-4, -17)
6. Seattle (2-4, +9)

And the AFC...

1. Tennessee (0-6, -114)
2. Cleveland (1-6, -107)
3. Kansas City (1-6, -76)
4. Oakland (2-5, -115)
5. Miami (2-4, -6)
6. Buffalo (3-4, -25)

Yes, there are a few teams who do not belong in the "worst team in the league" discussion. So be it. Every year, some team backs into the real playoffs who has no shot at winning it all. So why should this be any different? On to the matchups...

Wild Card Round
3. Detroit at 6. Seattle
Remember what I said a paragraph ago about teams who do not belong in this discussion? Seattle, with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck, fits this bill. They're here because of the Seneca Wallace Era--with him on the pine, they're not a bad team. Seattle wins, Detroit advances.

4. Carolina at 5. Washington
Aided by a five-pick game a week ago, Mark Sanchez has 10 interceptions. Aided by a four-pick game against the Packers in Week 1, Jay Cutler has 10 interceptions. The two games previously mentioned are widely considered the worst single-game quarterbacking performances by anyone not named Jamarcus Russell. Jake Delhomme has 13 interceptions, enough to lead the league and trump both of the above players. What does this say? I'm not sure exactly, but I'm pretty sure it has something to do with Carolina desperately needing someone, anyone, else to run the show. Washington wins, Carolina advances.

3. Kansas City at 6. Buffalo
Upset alert? Kansas City was looking lively until this weekend--hung within 11 points of the Giants, took the Cowboys to overtime, then beat Washington. Dick Jauron, meanwhile, barely edges out Norv Turner for the "Shakiest Coach in the League Award." If this one is remotely close (and KC can keep games close for the most part), Jauron finds a way to blow it. Kansas City wins, Buffalo advances.

4. Oakland at 5. Miami
This one isn't even close. One team has a great running game and a tricky Wildcat look, the other has the worst passing game in NFL history. Miami wins, Oakland advances.

Divisional Round
1. St. Louis at 4. Carolina
This one is a lot closer than you'd think. Both teams have a good rushing attack that would be better if they had an offensive line, a cripplingly bad quarterback, and no defense. The main difference is that Carolina's defense, while bad, is not as exceedingly bad as St. Louis's, and Carolina has receivers who can make plays. Carolina wins, St. Louis advances.

2. Tampa Bay at 3. Detroit
Now we're getting into the nitty gritty of the awful teams. Any one of the four teams left in the NFC could represent them in the Toilet Bowl with shame. While we're here, let's stop with the "Josh Johnson isn't that bad" talk. His quarterback rating of 50.9 places him 3.7 points higher than the notorious Jamarcus Russell and 5.6 points behind the previously-mentioned Delhomme. That's not "isn't that bad" territory. That's Ryan Leaf territory. Detroit wins, Tampa Bay advances.

1. Tennessee at 6. Buffalo
Here's the passing box score from the Titans' historically bad loss to New England:

Tennessee Passing
C/ATTYDSAVGTDINTRATING
V. Young0/200.0010.0
K. Collins2/12-7-0.6014.9
Team2/14-7-0.502

Yep, that's right. Depsite the notable handicap of not completing a pass, Vince Young was the team's leading passer. As bad as Buffalo is, there is no way they slip through this one. Buffalo wins, Tennessee advances.

2. Cleveland at 4. Oakland
Just another depressing matchup. The beleagured Russell is no longer the lowest-rated passer in the league--that plum now belongs to the once-heralded Derek Anderson. If Anderson was a baseball player, we would absolutely be cracking HGH jokes about his 2007 season. That being said, he can win ugly. Neither of these teams deserves to win this game. But... Cleveland wins, Oakland advances.

(Side note: these teams face each other during Week 16. Odds of Russell and Anderson still starting at that point in the season? Off the board.)

Conference Antichampionships
1. St. Louis at 2. Tampa Bay
The worst of the worst. Both teams are 0-7, both teams are downwards of 100 points in the hole, Steven Jackson is by far the best player in this game. Boller tries his hardest to spoil this, but Johnson tries just a little harder. This Bucs team should just go all the way and bring back the Bucco Bruce uniforms. St. Louis wins, Tampa Bay advances.

1. Tennessee at 4. Oakland
Just think--Tennessee was a field goal away from the real AFC championship a year ago. Biggest one-year fall in history? I think so. And they don't have Oakland on the schedule, so this matchup will never happen. But they've got a legit chance to join the ranks of the non-winless next week against Jacksonville, who is still fuming over missing the Playoffs of Putridity despite quitting on Jack Del Rio over a year ago. They're not as bad as they've played. Oakland is a different story. Tennessee wins, Oakland advances.

Toilet Bowl
2. Tampa Bay at 4. Oakland
Ironic, that this marks a rematch of XXXVII. Like then, these teams match up well: not a quarterback on either side, two talented but soft running backs running behind mediocre lines, two defenses who couldn't stop the sun from shining at midnight. Tampa's receivers are better, Oakland's defense is less bad. The Oakland secondary could occasionally give Johnson fits, but Russell could out-bad him despite the best efforts of Tampa's no-longer-feared defense. In the end, Tampa prevails--but not by any talent of their own. And Oakland is the reigning Worst Team in the NFL, as chosen by Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe.

Coming tomorrow or Wednesday: the second 2009 edition of the Your Name Here NFL Power Rankings!!!

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

2010 Draft Prospects: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
I have a roommate who is a Nebraska fan. And as such, I've seen a lot of "the boy named Suh" this season. And I've yet to see anything I'm not impressed by. He's strong enough to take on double-teams, he's quick enough to shoot the gaps, and he also does as good a job as most linebackers when dropped into zone coverage. I can't remember ever seeing such a sure thing in college. Unless he's juicing.

Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
One thing that has always confused me: Berry is almost unanimously considered the top prospect in the draft, yet almost no mocks have him in the top 4. Does this make sense to anyone? Who says that the Rams have to rebuild with a quarterback? Put it this way: if your choices are a can't-miss safety who is drawing Ed Reed comparisons, or a quarterback who has had a rocky collegiate career and is 10-12 as a starter? And for Clausen, going from Notre Dame to the Rams would probably be a downgrade in supporting cast. Don't you take the sure thing?

Max Hall, QB, BYU
Saw him take down Oklahoma with a limited supporting cast, and I was sold at that moment. There are reasons certain college QBs make it, and others don't. The ones who make it are the accurate ones, the calm leaders, and the guys who can make plays with their arm under pressure. Hall fits all three. He's going to go down as the best QB from this draft class.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Hall will end up being the best QB of the class, but McCoy will end up showing up a few guys taken over him as well. He's the type of mobile quarterback that works--a pass-firster who is comfortable throwing out of the pocket, but who can make things happen on the run as a supplement to this and makes good decisions. Those guys can make it--the run-first types with no accuracy or decision-making are the guys who struggle.

The Bad

Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
I covered this above. Put it this way: give me a quarterback who wins ugly over a hype machine who just can't pull it off. Kyle Orton took the Bears to a Super Bowl a few years ago. Clausen has struggled to win surrounded by high-school All-Americans. In this year's NFL, where pretty much anyone in the top 10 is going to a putrid team, Clausen will probably be playing with a weaker supporting cast than he's had at Notre Dame--and, as previously mentioned, he's 10-12 there and that's not against NFL quality opponents.

Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
Hmm... sketchy character guy, heavily hyped and has very quietly fallen off the face of the earth this year, questions about his work ethic... this bodes well for long-term success!

And for those who are saying that his free-falling on draft boards will motivate him... all reports say that he's just not the motivatable type. He's a supreme talent with no desire to better himself. Guys like that either mature under a veteran influence (think Randy Moss with Cris Carter) or flame out (think Tony Mandarich... or better yet fellow Packer fans, forget he ever existed). In the right situation, he could be a force. Or not. I'm leaning towards not--only because a dumb front office with an iffy locker room already will almost certainly reach for him on promise alone.

Terelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State
Yes, I know he's a year away from being able to declare, but he's already being talked about as a potential gamebreaker, only he's JaMarcus Russell Lite. Same build, same question marks (accuracy, decision-making, motivation), same iffy stats overshadowed by monster potential. He's miles from being serviceable.

Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
Just watched him get torched by Texas A&M a few weeks ago. He looks like he's gonna have big problems against speed rushers--which should raise red flags if he's projected as a LT.

The Ugly

Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
At this point, the shoulder has to be a question mark, right? You've got to at least think twice about it before you take him, right? Bradford has the talent to be a starter, but the last thing you want to do as an owner is spend fuck-you money on a player who might be on injured reserve more than he's on the field. Unless you're Al Davis, apparently.

Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Tremendous talent with no clear NFL position. He could become the next Steve Young, he could become the next Kordell Stewart, he could become the next Eric Crouch. I've seen him mocked in the top 5, I've seen him mocked in the 3rd round. Another monster question mark.

Sam Young, OT, Notre Dame
Big name who has had a couple bad seasons, but is riding on the "potential" wave that made him a top recruit and the occasional flashes of said potential. Not like that's never failed before, has it?

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The First Annual Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Week 6 Fantasy Football Awards

Week 6. The fantasy season is now taking shape. You know who the contenders are (in my league this year, "Me") and you know who the contenders aren't, (in my league this year, "Everyone Else"). The surprise success stories are looking a little less flukish, and Jake Delhomme still has a giant fork sticking out of his back. And, having done a Power Poll just two weeks ago, I'm in need of some filler material. Seems as good a time as any to break out The First Annual Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Week 6 Fantasy Football Awards!!!

The Rudi Johnson Award for "Backup Running Back Who Torpedoed The Career Of The Starter"
Goes to Ray Rice. Two weeks ago, he was still listed as the #2 on their depth chart, thanks to the steady presence of Willis McGahee. But Yahoo ranks him as the 11th best player so far this year, and he's second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage.

As an aside: the "pass to the HB" offense is going to be the Next Big Thing in football. Take an elusive running back, move him outside of an area where the front 7 are right in front of him, give him time to get going before guys are hitting him, and watch the fur fly. This has dominated in video games for years now. Now, it's working for the Ravens--who might not be quite up to the #2 I gave them in the Power Poll, but are right in the thick of the toughest division in football right now.

(Also, McGahee ranks only two spots below him. Rice has 67 points to McGahee's 63. Dangerous combination to have to deal with. Does anyone see Baltimore keeping Willis past this year though? Me either.)

The Marshall Faulk in 2005 Award for Least Effective Once-Elite RB
Goes to LaDanian Tomlinson. Believe me, I loved LDT three years ago. I rode him to the title game two years in a row. Now? A first round pick has gotten you less than 100 yards on the season. And if he's on your roster, you're contemplating where you can find a fix of heroin right now.

The Craig Whelihan Award for Quarterback You Would Never Dream Of Starting, Regardless Of The Matchup
Goes, predictably, to JaMarcus Russell. My God, someone actually evaluated this guy and decided he was the best player available in the draft. Al Davis made the executive decision that this guy was a better player to have than Adrian Peterson. Yes, you read that right. Raider fans, feel free to sob quietly in the back for the remainder of the column.

(The thing nobody is mentioning--the 2007 draft produced the Bizarro Class of 1983. Remember how that was the draft class that produced John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino? The 2007 draft gave us JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards, and Tyler Thigpen. Just brutal.)

The LaDanian Tomlinson Award for Best Performance By A Player Stealing A More Famous Player's Name
Steve Smith 2.0. The Giants one. Yep, he's a legitimate superstar now, and he's a three-touchdown game against the Cowboys from making the leap to superduperstar. Enjoy the ride, everyone who drafted him in the 15th round.

The Kurt Warner Award for Best Performance By Someone 95% Of The World Thought Was Dead
Goes to Cedric Benson. There were signs at the end of last year, but did anybody see this coming? And this past weekend, when I among everyone benched him against the devastating Ravens defense, he torched them. Dude's for real. Glad to have him on my team.

(Am I gloating? You bet your ass I am. You don't get many chances to gloat in fantasy football. For every champion, there are at least 7 guys wondering what the hell just happened. Take them happily.)

The 2008 Detroit Hello Kitties Memorial Award for Defense You Absolutely, Positively Must Stack Up Against Every Single Week
This one is shared by Kansas City and Oakland. Kansas City is averaging over 400 total yards against per game, while half of the NCAA Top 25 are wondering if they might be able to do better in the NFL than this alleged team. Oakland is almost as bad, but is buoyed into a share of this award by the fact that JaMarcus ensures that their offense will put up enough three-and-outs to keep the defense on the field.

The Tom Brady Award for Unsung Fantasy Assassin Of The Year
Goes to Peyton Manning. Everyone knows that Purple Jesus is the top-ranked player this year. Very few would guess that Manning is currently #2. It kills me to say that he's currently slaughtering Drew Brees, production-wise. In his eleventh year, Manning has discovered the rare sixth gear. Not an easy feat.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Week 5 NFL Picks

Vikings (-10) over RAMS
This has the potential to be the biggest blowout of the season. Any line inside -50 you HAVE to go for the Vikings. Though the good news is with the new USFL, the Rams are one move away from being competitive next year!

Cowboys (-8) over CHIEFS
Here's the secret to this NFL season: There are about a half-dozen teams who are really, really good and about a half-dozen teams who are really, really bad. If you always pick agains the really, really bad teams and always pick the really, really good teams you are guaranteed to come out ahead in the long run.

In case you hadn't noticed, the Chiefs are in the "really really bad" category.

Redskins (+3.5) over PANTHERS
A look into the future: Craigslist Charlotte, two weeks from now.

WANTED: Starting quarterback. Experience a plus, but not necessary. Must not totally suck balls. We're really, really desperate here.

Buccaneers (+15) over EAGLES
This line is about 9 points too high. You had me for 6--nothing above that though. Kevin Kolb isn't good enough to justify it.

(Yes, I realize I just picked a really, really bad team. But at a three score line against a backup quarterback? Had to do it. Sometimes, you gotta win ugly.)

RAVENS (-8.5) over Bengals
Cedric Benson has been the reason the Bengals have been in every game they've played. And in case you didn't notice, nobody has been able to run on Baltimore, well, since they moved to Baltimore. Lay the points in this one and watch the carnage.

GIANTS (-15) over Raiders
Like the first game: they can't possibly make this line high enough. And as a bonus, this might be the week that Jamarcus Russell finally crosses the magical 39.6 "I'd be better off spiking the ball on every pass play" level. This is unprecedented territory.

LIONS (+10.5) over Steelers
The Steelers aren't a blowout team. They'll win this one by 7.

Browns (+6) over BILLS
What a comeback week. The Cleveland Show delivered a few laughs, and the Browns almost stuck it to the Bengals. Remember, Derek Anderson used to be good--the same can't be said about Trent Edwards. Or most of the Bills, for that matter.

Falcons (+2.5) over 49ERS
That line is Vegas' way of throwing their hands in the air and saying "We have no fucking clue how this game is going to end."

Jaguars (pick) over SEAHAWKS
I just threw up in my mouth a little. What an ugly matchup. In Sports Fan Hell, the bar serves warm beer and all 32 HDTVs are showing this game. And Mike Holmgren is prominently featured in HD. Let's just move on.

Broncos (+3.5) over PATRIOTS
This feels like a field-goal game to me. Not sure which way it's gonna go, but I don't see this one covering.

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Texans
I think this game marks the last breath of the Cardinals (and possibly Kurt Warner's career) before the death rattle starts. Warner goes for 350 and three scores, and the Cards win by double digits, before losing double digits for the season.

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS
The Vince Young clock is ticking. The Vince Young clock is ticking.

Jets (-1.5) over DOLPHINS
Welcome to the Chad Henne era or, as it is also known, "ka-ching."

Monday, October 5, 2009

Live-Blogging Brett Bowl I

6:58: We're up and live from the Comfy Couch in my apartment for Monday Night Football featuring the Packers and the Brett Favres! Wait, they're playing other people than Favre? I'm sorry--ESPN led me to believe that he was taking them on singlehandedly. My bad.

I've never been so excited/scared for a game at the same time in my life. I'll be updating this at the end of every quarter, so feel free to check in. Also, I'll be on AOL Instant Messenger (same screen name: BaseballGuyCAA) so if you have any questions, comments, or just want to see your name in print on teh Intarwebz, shoot me a message. Or alternately, drop a comment. It's all good.

Disclaimer: In the event that the Vikings run away with this one, I will be getting absolutely TANKED. Expect fourth-quarter posts to reflect this, and adjust your expectations accordingly. This could be a good thing or a bad thing.

Back after the first quarter.

Updated 7:04 PM

7:13 Any time your head coach's name is mentioned in the same breath as "press charges," that's not a good sign. Raiders fans, I'm talking about you.

7:18 Just had a five-minute conversation with Future Roommate Kyle about the half-dozen couches he can provide for our house next year. Most of them are missing various appendages. In a related story, my girlfriend was bartered into doing the dishes since I made her lasagna. The sink is overflowing. Welcome to college, folks.

7:19 ESPN just showed a Favre montage featuring the Super Bowl, the Freeman Overtime Catch, the Dad Game, and the Mile High Miracle. Four of the greatest sports moments of my life. Time to start drinking faster.


7:20 First Adrian Peterson mention of the night. Is there any time we can remember that someone who was sure to become the X-Factor in the game was paid so little attention? Seriously.


7:22 Just was presented with a mountain of evidence that Jared Allen is one of the elite DEs in the league. In a related story, Allen Barbre is a founding member of the Ahmad Carroll All-Stars. Again, time to start drinking faster.


7:24 The crew is openly rooting for someone to lead-pipe Jared Allen's knee. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Green Bay Packers offensive line!

7:27 Snickers CHOMPionship < anything involving Patrick Chewing. Most underrated ad campaign ever.

7:28 YES! Matt Millen just took Minnesota! Gotta love when the guy who singlehandedly DESTROYED the Lions' franchise is going against you.

7:29 Christ, Chris Berman looks old in HD. The entire country but Wisconsin is taking the Vikings, save for Wisconsin. Gotta love it. We've totally go the "NOBODY BELIEVED IN US!" Principle going for us right now.

7:32 Beer #1 never stood a chance. And the game hasn't even started yet. Get ready for a bumpy ride.

7:35 Just had this exchange: Sami: Is that really what TV looked like when we were growing up? Kyle: Yep. Sami: Damn. That sucks.

7:41 FOOTBALL! FOOTBALL! FOOTBALL!

7:43 Steady dose of Ryan Grant early. He looks good, though the same can't be said about our line. He had to juke about 3 guys to get back to the line on the first play. Not a good omen.

7:45 Rodgers has been hurried on every play. Couple screen passes early, couple misdirection runs. "We have NO confidence in our blocking."--Mike McCarthy (Okay, he never said that. But he might as well with that game plan)

7:46 Slo-mo replay of Allen Barbre getting worked by Jared Allen. Followed by a first-down to Jennings. God, I hope we can keep this up. We're running a house-of-cards offense right now. 7:48 3rd and 7... Jermichael Finley wide open! We're moving!

7:49 And... we're not. First sack, Rodgers coughs it up, and the promising drive is over. Jesus Christ, we need a new offensive line. So bad. So, so bad. 7:52 Back from commercial, and Mike McCarthy is challenging what was obviously a fumble. He's secretly the most overrated coach in the league. He had one good year, and has since been just brutal. Yet nobody seems to realize this yet.

7:57 "That's three big penalties on Green Bay already." The last one was taunting on Brandon Chillar after Peterson gained 5 yards. Have I mentioned that I need to start drinking faster?

8:00 Stopped 'em short on the WR Screen on 3rd down! And they're going for it. HUGE play already.

8:01 4th & 1, and the Packers are stacking the line... ...and Peterson gets it. Big surprise there. What's his percentage on 3rd or 4th and short? 95%? Better?

8:03 Favre to Shiancoe on the play-action for the touchdown. Almost three beers down, and it's looking like a long night. We couldn't stop them for shit.

8:10 TOUCHDOWN TO JERMICHAEL FINLEY! GREAT THROW BY RODGERS ON THE RUN, GREAT DOWNFIELD BLOCK BY DRIVER, AND WE'RE TIED! FUCK YES! I CAN'T STOP TYPING IN CAPS!

8:17 Percy Harvin slips after breaking a few tackles in the backfield. Third and long... Farve's gotta make it happen now. Good situation for us. And sure enough, he bounces a checkdown pass. Packer fans everywhere just smiled.

8:19 First quarter over. 7-7, Packers driving. Three and some change beers down. See ya guys at halftime.

8:24 Fourth and three. Kick the 53-yard field goal. And we're going for it.

HOLY SHIT OMGOMGOMG LUCKY CATCH OFF THE DEFLECTION!

Seriously though, how do you go for that? With our line? Do you trust them in any way to either protect Rodgers or get 3 yards of push? I sure don't. Glad it worked out, but that doesn't make it a good call.

(That being said... Greg Jennings is awesome. Great catch, they just showed the replay.)

8:26 Antoine Winfield jumps the route and picks off Rodgers. Second turnover on the day. Devastating turn of events. The good news is we're moving the ball. The bad news is they're forcing turnovers, and we're not.

8:32 Back from commercial, and I just broke the seal. This will make the remainder of this blog about 250% more challenging.

8:33 Tramon Williams falls down, Sidney Rice turns it into a big gain. These kinds of things don't happen to championship teams. Just saying.

And again, Peterson is bottled up at the line, only to escape and gain 10 yards. I hate to admit it, but this guy is really, really, REALLY, fucking good. I'm just waiting on the karmic ACL tear. Remember, this guy was hurt for half of his college career.

8:35 "Penalties are killing us tonight"--My girlfriend. Yeah, that just happened. It's that obvious.

8:39 3rd & long... Favre forces it into coverage... Touchdown. God damn it. Two years ago, that was picked off.

8:42 Just had an argument about the new Vince Vaughn movie. Bob's friend (I haven't learned her name yet) wants to see it badly. Me and Bob think it's gonna blow. She argues that it has Vince Vaughn. I counter by stating that "I love Will Ferrell, but I wouldn't see Kicking & Screaming again if... you dragged me kicking & screaming"

8:45 The girls living below us can hear us screaming. Great success.

8:47 Rodgers sacked on 3rd down by about 4 different guys. We suck across the line on the line. It's been official for a while.

8:50 Just had a discussion about the infamous Man vs. Colin video. Tyler, since I know you're reading, this one is for you.

HOLY SHIT CLAY MATTHEWS WITH A STRIP-6! "That JUST happened!"--Everyone here. All at the same time.

God damn, that was one of the most awesome plays I have ever seen. And I say that completely objectively.

8:52 Just saw this graphic: Peterson: 15 fumbles since 2007 (most in league). Followed by a discussion on how he fumbles so much because he doesn't go down right away. The lesson, as always? Most statistics mean absolutely dick.

Whatever. We're in this game. I'm happy.

8:54 Favre goes deep, overthrows Berrian. A familiar sight. He's not nearly as accurate as he used to, and people seem to forget that.

8:56 Lots of risky Favre throws, none picked off yet. Patience, son. Patience.

8:59 Big play on the screen to Peterson. The pass to the HB is the most underrated one in the whole playbook. You're taking your best speed/agility combo guy and giving him the ball in the open field... and teams don't do this more often? Doesn't make sense to me

This is followed by another long throw to a wide-open WR over the middle. Harvin this time. I'm wondering how we haven't picked any of these off yet.

9:00 AND THERE WE GO! PICKED OFF IN THE ENDZONE!

Flag on the play... Not good.

Two fouls on the defense. Alleged pass interference. Replay shows a very, very questionable call. We're giving up penalties and penalties, but a lot of them are not our fault. Just sayin'

9:01 Touchdown, Vikings. Shady penalty on the turnover, followed by a touchdown. I want to kill the entire officiating crew right now.

9:09 Last play of the half... Hail Mary... and Rodgers is running for his life... incomplete.

Halftime. See you after the 3rd.

9:24 MORE FOOTBALL! MORE FOOTBALL! MORE FOOTBALL!!!

9:26 3rd & 1... Peterson gets it again. It's such a huge point in your offense's favor to have someone like him.

Just finished beer #6... Need to speed this process up.

9:29 Watching Favre actually hurts tonight. He's flashing back to his prime. Every deep throw is on target, he's showing balls in the pocket...

Touchdown to Berrian. Where the fuck did this come from? It's like Bizarro 1997... only Favre is wearing a Vikings jersey.

9:33 Great return by Jordy Nelson wiped out by a holding penalty. Beer #7 is disappearing fast. And rightfully so.

9:35 That last burp registered on the Richter scale.

9:36 Rodgers sacked again by Allen. This is getting ugly.

9:37 Beer #7 is gone. Ten minutes. At this rate, we're not gonna make it to the end of the game.

9:38 If I don't make it to the end of the game, and anyone from ESPN is reading this, can you pull some strings and get "BaseballGuyCAA--Out--Alcohol Poisoning" on the injury report from this game? It'd make my day.

9:39 Crossing route to Driver goes for a big gain. We need about 20 more of those, and we're in good shape.

9:41 Driver with another big catch. He wants this game more than anyone else on the field.

9:42 Screen down to the 6. Rodgers is hurried on every play. I wish we could see some stats on this. Has any team this good ever had such a bad line?

9:44 I have to pee so fucking bad, but I don't want to miss this.

9:45 3rd and Goal from the 1-inch line... play action... stopped for a loss. 4th and Goal from the 1. Go for it. You have to.

9:46 ANY other team in all of football, I would say go for a QB sneak here. But I have NO faith in our offensive line. None at all.

Kyle just suggested running the Maryland I with our FBs and running Grant power up the middle. We have no line, so rely on our FBs. I don't know. I have no confidence in us in short-yardage situations. And this is not a good thing.

And here's our game right here. 4th and 1... and we have no line.

9:48 Here we go...

Dropped in the end zone by Donald Lee. I'm speechless.

9:51 Brett Favre is beating us on Monday night. Anyone know the name of a good heroin dealer in Oshkosh? I don't think anyone would blame me at this point.

9:53 It's time for a good old-fashioned Oshkosh riot. Fuck it. After this abortion of a game, why not?

Third quarter over... Back after the game. Maybe.

10:00 Really regret making that comment right now... just so everyone knows, I have no intention of starting a heroin addiction tonight. Beer is enough for me. And I have my reasons to NEVER try heroin. But those are more sad than funny, so they will not be repeated here.

10:02 Stopped them short on 3rd down. About time. Now, we need a good return and a score.

10:05 Colledge is down. As if our offensive line wasn't bad enough already.

10:08 From Facebook... this is so true

Eddie Dwyer thinks we should just put the sleds out instead of an offensive line. High probability that it blocks better.

10:09 4th and 1... and we punt it. Two scores down, 11 minutes left in the game. We HAVE to make something happen. Terrible call. Play to fucking win at this point. Who gives a fuck about keeping the margin of defeat down? The Football Gods will not smile upon this. Guarantee the Vikings win at this point.

10:13 3rd and 12... here comes Favre for the first down.

Chester Taylor stopped a yard short of the first down. And the Vikings have the balls to go for it. And that's why they will win this game.

Again, I am speeding up my drinking.

10:14 Nevermind, the punt team is coming on. Can the Football Gods smite both teams? Is this even possible?

10:15 Punt downed at the 1. Fuck my life.

10:17 "Split backs... this is new... I like it!"--Kyle

Followed by Ryan Grant barely getting out of the endzone before Antoine Winfield posterizes him. It's been that kind of night.

"Grant tries to get out... he barely gets out"--ESPN announcing team. I am at the breaking point.

10:19 Rodgers fumbles out of the endzone. I never thought I would say this, but I would take the safety. Time to drink myself into oblivion.

10:20 Mike McCarthy is challenging it. We're challenging... and we're going to win... to give them a safety.

This is the state of this game right now.

10:22 Sami just got this text from our friend Brooke: "Standing outside in the rain. Fire alarm went off. Fuck the dorms."

Everyone here agrees that my apartment is a godsend.

AIM comment from Tyler, one of my best friends from high school:
kcisgonnagetyou (10:22:48 PM): gruden and jaworski need to get off favres dick
kcisgonnagetyou (10:23:09 PM): im convinced they were smoking his cock last night because the things they are saying are insanely stupid

He's got a good point.

10:23 We win the challenge, and give up the safety. Technically, this is a good thing. I'm trying to see the bright side. Mostly, I'm trying to drink until I don't care that Brett Favre just beat us on Monday night.

10:29 Punt out of bounds inside the 5. This is just ugly.

10:30 Graphic shows that Rodgers has been sacked 7 times tonight. I don't even have a joke anymore.

10:31 Another big gain to Jermichael Finley, who is the only bright spot in this game so far. Followed by Rodgers scrambling for the first down. Thanks to his turnovers, my fantasy team won't come back to win. But the big thing... I don't care about that anymore. I just want to see us come back and win this game. At all costs.

10:32 "Greg Jennings hasn't caught a ball in at least 2 quarters" Obvious foreshadowing? I hope so.

(I stand coreccted. Jermichael Finley.. and Clay Matthews have earned my respect today. My bad.)

10:33 Jordy Nelson for the touchdown. If we get the 2... we've got a shot. Kind of. I should be way more excited.

10:34 Just checked... my fantasy team is down 3 points. I closed the window. I don't want to think about that right now. I honestly don't care about that right now. Let's get the two.

10:35 Rodgers shovel pass falls incomplete. "Rodgers continues to take a beating here." Again, has any contender ever had this kind of awful line ever? "I love how he tries to shovel pass it there... that's what happens when you sit behind Brett for three years"--Kyle. Well said.

10:37 Onside kick... and the Vikings have it. Good time for another good comment from Facebook:

Joey Matel im all for spending every single draft pick on o-lineman

Again, just recognizing my friends' good points.

10:40 Favre hits Berrian deep... out of bounds. And I misspelled Berrian at first. Good sign if I'm trying to forget this game.

10:41 Jordy Nelson muffs it... pile... Packer ball. *Exhales*

10:42 Donald Driver just tied the Packer career reception record. I'd care more if we weren't losing to Brett Favre on Monday night.

1o:43 After another failed typing attempt (10:43 looked like 10>>>43 for a second) Rodgers hits a deep gain to James Jones. We need two scores, and we have no timeouts. Greatest day in my life if we come back to win. I'm not optimistic with our line.

10:46 Two minute drill. Only we need to score twice, instead of once.

10:47 Grant takes the screen, gets the first, and gets out of bounds. Smart play. And I amost spelled bounds "bownds"

Rodgers sacked again. We're fucked. We can't block anyone. How the FUCK do you give up 8 sacks?

10:48 WHY ARE WE WASTING TIME AT THE LINE?!

10:49 Field goal good. Onside kick and a touchdown and w'ere good. Ok?

10:50 Sidney Rice recovers the kick. Great onside kick by Crosby, but a great play by Rice to recover it. Ugh.

Game over. Fuck my life. Time to drink until I can't feel feelings anymore.