Your 2012 NFL Preview

Tonight, Eli Manning and Tony HRomo take center stage for the NFL opener.  If you're like me, you think last year's opener was a lot better.  Packers-Saints delivered exactly what you want from the first real NFL game of the season: exciting, high-flying football.  The Giants and Cowboys have, for a few years now, been in the category of "talented teams who are just boring to watch."  Neither one is a big play team, save for Dallas when Miles Austin decides to ramp it up.  Their quarterbacks can be best described as "very good but not spectacular."  It's not Browns-Cardinals, but it's sure as hell not Packers-Saints.

One paragraph in and already we're mostly complaining?  You know it.  Last season I watched my team put together either #1 or #1A on the "Most Dominating Regular Seasons of All-Time" list (the '07 Pats hold the other spot and, as far as I'm concerned, there's really no right answer to who should go where).  Then the playoffs came around, we drew the worst possible matchup available in the divisional round, and everything fell apart.  But more on that in the NFC North section.

It's a great year for football, provided you don't live in the Bayou.  Let's get to it.

AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. Miami Dolphins

What a train wreck from 2-4.  I ranked the Bills 2nd mostly by process of elimination.  Miami was always going to be 4th, and I can't say I have high hopes for the Ryan Tannehill Experiment.  In fact, 2011 Blaine Gabbert (or, "subfunctionally terrible") seems to be the high end of expectations for him.  I'd advise Dolphin fans to make sure they're at least a six-pack-and-a-half deep into the Land Shark before gametime.

And what can be said about the New York Jets quarterback situation?  Mark Sanchez seems to perform well when put under the microscope, doesn't he?  He's gonna be Monday Morning Quarterbacked more this season than anyone in history.  And all because of the presence of the luckiest little choirboy in league history.  Tim Tebow, whose passing numbers seem to suggest he'd be better suited running the occasional reverse option pass lined up as a wide receiver, whose trade offer was met with crickets, who is like Mark Sanchez only the exact opposite, will be chomping at the bit to get out of the cockamamie Wildcat stunt they've got him pulling.  Can you imagine what happens if Sanchez falters AND fucks another high school girl?  With waiting-for-marriage puritan Tebow behind him on the depth chart?  The cloud of smug coming from the NY sports media might choke the entire Northeast.  Don't rule it out.

The Patriots will win this division unless Tom Brady and Ryan Mallett both get hurt.  And even then they might be fine if they trade for someone passable.

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Pittsburgh Steelers*
3. Cincinatti Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns

I think the Ravens finish ahead of the Steelers, but I'd respect either pick.  It's basically a coin flip.  Ray Rice takes anyone on the Pittsburgh side of the argument--he's been quietly one of the best backs in the league for years, and people are now just starting to realize it.  I think Joe Flacco is not a superstar, but better than Trent Dilfer, and the rest of this year's Ravens team is better than the Trent Dilfer Superbowl team.

I think The Red Rocket bites the sophomore slump a bit.  I think, long-term, he's gonna be a great player (and the three-way competitive potential in this division should have you excited provided you don't live in Cleveland--and if you live in Cleveland you probably shouldn't be excited about anything anyway) but it's gonna take a few years to get to that point.  Josh Freeman went through it.  This division is gonna be fun for years.

And the Browns are gonna be fun too, but for an entirely different reason.  A 28-year-old rookie throwing to Mohammed Massaquoi?  I'm pretty sure Hell's sports bar is going to be showing a lot of Browns highlights this season.

AFC South
1. Houston Texans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Tennessee Titans

Like the AFC East, only the teams have different names and there's no Tebow.  The Colts aren't going to be great, but Andrew Luck is going to be a lot better than Blaine Gabbert or Jake Locker, and the Colts should rebound back to mediocre at the worst.

I'm not sold on Locker at this point.  At all.  He's not a good fit for a modern offense.  He can't run, he's inaccurate, and he's not crafty enough in the pocket--and his offensive line sucks something awful.  In fact, let's do a quick QB comparison throughout the division

Matt Schaub - Jeff Garcia.  Makes enough sense to me.  Both didn't get starting jobs until later in their careers, both had pretty admirable success with those starting jobs, neither was particularly spectacular on their own but both could bring out the best in superstar teammates.  And could you imagine the awkwardness in Texas if the Texans started winning, and Schaub had a gay rumor start circulating?  Especially in Texas, in an election year?  That's a recipe for hilarity.  Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme were also considered, but Schaub/Garcia both had higher ceilings in their peak than those two.

Andrew Luck - John Elway  He hasn't played an NFL down yet.  I could pick from any one of a dozen different quarterbacks, and the comparison would work.  Peyton Manning, John Elway... Ryan Leaf.  Personally, I think he ends up closer to the first two.  But it's too soon to tell.

Blaine Gabbert - Charlie Batch.  The good news is, Gabbert can't be much worse than last year.  The bad news is, unless he's markedly better the Jaguars aren't going anywhere.  Christian Ponder has at least had moments where he seems capable.  Yo Gabba Gabbert just seems overmatched.

Jake Locker - Bubby Brister.  Both big, strong-armed quarterbacks who struggle to hit the target.  Bubby was an anachronism when he played, and that was 15 years ago.  You just can't survive in today's NFL unless you can hit open receivers, no matter how pretty your deep ball is an how physically gifted you are.  Locker has always underperformed to what he was supposed to do, and that's not a good sign.  Remember when the Titans were one yard away from the Super Bowl?  I don't think most of their fan base will by the time they get back.

AFC West
1. Oakland Raiders
2. Denver Broncos*
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. San Diego Chargers

This was, by far, the hardest division to handicap thus far.  Personally, I'm rooting for the whole division to go 8-8.  What fun would that be.  In the meantime, the top three teams all have major injury problems at the quarterback and/or running back position(s).  Denver might not have injury problems at running back, but the fact that Peyton Manning is returning from experimental surgery and might be one hard hit away from never being able to walk again cancels out any feelings of comfort this might cause Denver fans to experience.  Oakland's got two fragile signal-callers, followed by Terelle Pryor on the depth chart--or, as he's been described, "The Poor Man's Jamarcus Russell."  Oof.

San Diego has to bottom out one of these years.  They've been consistently good while skirting the "don't pair a shaky coach with a shaky quarterback" law that governs football.  They could get away with it when LT was carrying the load.  Ryan Mathews is not LT, and he's the third running back in this division to have serious injury concerns.

And because the whole "compare the QBs" bit was so fun last time around, let's keep it going.  But let's change up what we're comparing the QBs to.  This time?  Characters from Animal House

Carson Palmer/Jason Campbell - Otter and Boone.  Worth more as a pair than either one individually, much like everyone assumes that each of these two are going to start at least five games, and probably no more than eight.  Each one is infinitely less valuable without the other one.

Peyton Manning - The Horse That Has a Heart Attack in the Dean's Office.  This one should be obvious.  Plus, Peyton has a bit of a horse face going on.  Sweet deal.

Matt Cassell - Mrs. Wormer.  Crazy, unpredictable, likely to be wheeled off the field in a shopping cart.  Also, Tyler Palko is Flounder.

Phillip Rivers - Marmalard.  Was this choice of comparison just a thinly veiled excuse to make the Rivers-Marmalard comparison?  You bet it was.  Does the Manning/Horse comparison and the Palko/Flounder comparison completely validate this?  You bet it does.

AFC Playoffs
Steelers over Raiders
Broncos over Texans

Patriots over Broncos
Steelers over Ravens

Patriots over Steelers

I like Manning to pull the upset over Schaub, who's painfully thin on playoff experience.  And I think whoever loses the division in the North wins if there's a playoff rematch.  But I'm taking the Ravens over the Patriots if that happens.  For the record.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. New York Giants
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Washington Redskins

I'm watching Cowboys/Giants right now.  The Giants just lost a fumble.  Their backup running back, David Wilson, looks terrible--if Bradshaw goes down, the team is screwed.

I love the Eagles as a post-hype pick.  If Michael Vick stays healthy, there's no way they don't win this division.  That's a big "if," though.  And two Vick-RG3 matchups sound fun to watch.  That's all I got--this division is like the AFC West without all the fun unpredictablity.  The Giants and Cowboys both have been "better than average" forever, and the Giants somehow snuck two Super Bowls out of that.

Quarterback - Cartoon Dog (yes, this was intentional)

Michael Vick - Wile E. Coyote.  Technically, the coyote is a member of the canine family.  Vick's speed, propensity to get splattered, and occasionally evil personality are a perfect fit here.

Eli Manning - Droopy.  Two Super Bowl rings, and not even Giants fans can get excited for Eli.

Tony Romo - Brian Griffin.  Has been crazily overrated since about 2008.  Nobody really likes them anymore, but since they're established they're not going anywhere.  Much to the chagrin of much of their franchise's fan base.  Brian getting verbally smacked down by Quagmire was the equivalent of Romo's season-ending injury.

RGIII - Dino.  Hyperactive and his family/fan base loves him, but he's a rookie so he's gonna do a lot of dumb things.  Like Dino.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Detroit Lions*
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings

If the Packers can avoid matching up with the Giants in January again, we're going to the Super Bowl.  Don't start with me about the Lions winning the division.  We own the Lions, and we made that abundantly clear last year.  Jay Cutler is good, but he's very clearly a cut or three below Rodgers and Stafford.  And the Vikings are just praying for something to infect the waters of Lake Michigan and hit all three teams.

Quarterback - Fast Food Chain

Aaron Rodgers - In & Out Burger.  Other than my fiancee and my mom, the two things I truly love.  Moving to San Diego, I have to say I approve of In & Out.  I could have two Animal Style Double-Doubles for every meal.  In the lettuce wrap every once in a while for variety.

Matthew Stafford - Starbucks.  Very good, but also very, very overpriced.  Stafford's contract is a fucking toilet, and I feel bad for Lions fans if he ever suffers a serious injury.  Wait, no I don't.

Jay Cutler - Subway.  You could do a lot worse, but you know that the bread is below average and the fixin's have all been sitting out for goddamn ever.  Like you know that Cutler is a total tool, and he has bouts of colorblindedness.

Christian Ponder - Taco John's.  Dude, fuck Taco John's.  It's a blander, more expensive, more taco-shit-inducing version of T-Bell.  There is absolutely no reason to ever go to Taco Johns, and there is no reason Christian Ponder should be starting for an NFL team.

NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. New Orleans Saints*
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers

Fun fact: Matt Ryan has started all but two of his teams games since being drafted, while playing a position that frequently takes a beating.  Fun fact: Matt Ryan's backup is an undrafted rookie named Dominique Davis.  These two things could be very relevant at some point this season.

In the bounty scandal, the guy I feel the worst for is Drew Brees.  He deserves to be playing with a contender this year--instead, I see the Saints just barely making the playoffs, if at all.

I think Josh Freeman is way better than he looked last year.  Similarly, I think Cam Newton will look way below what he's going to end up turning into.  Or get hurt.  Or both.  The Panthers almost need to suck for a year or two to get him some supporting cast.

Quarterback - Character from Breaking Bad

Matt Ryan - Jesse Pinkman.  Both came out of school a little bit rough, but have matured admirably over the past five seasons.  Both have/had a nickname ("Matty Ice" and "Captain Cook") that they thoroughly do/did not deserve, but still sounds sweet.  I don't know if Ryan could pull off casually dropping the word "bitch" into every phrase, though.

Drew Brees - Walter White.  He is the danger.

Josh Freeman - Agent Hank Schroeder.  Both had setbacks recently (Freeman's sophomore year, Hank's struggle to walk again).  Both are primed for a breakthrough.  Both are in position to have a long-coming payoff in this coming season.

Cam Newton - Mike Ehrmentrout.  The guy who cleans up the messes.  Consummate badass.  By the way, if we're continuing the QB/BB comparison, Brett Favre is Hector Salamanca.  And his penis is the little fly that Walt and Jesse almost killed each other over in that one Season 3 episode.

NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals

Yeah... the Castro district is hopping on I-5, lit torches and pitchforks hanging out the window, and coming for my anal cherry after this one.  So be it.  The Niners outplayed their point differential by a large margin last year while getting an insane jump in production from their quarterback.  They're standing to face a huge overcorrection this year.  Sorry, Frisco.

(Wait, the Packers are playing San Fran this weekend?  I take it all back.  They're the best young team in the NFL, and they're making their Super Bowl run this year!  Alex Smith is gonna use the Manning saga as motivation, and take over the league!  I believe!  And they're DEFINITELY going to roll the Packers this weekend.  Smith is going to leave NO DOUBT who won the 2005 draft!)

Quarterback - '90s TV Comedy

Sam Bradford - That '70s Show.  On the one hand, they feel criminally overrated.  They match up well head to head with the rest of the division, but just don't really fit in the "best around" discussion.

Russell Wilson - The Simpsons.  Discriminated against for their unorthodoxy.  The Simpsons was animated, Wilson was short.  Only The Flintstones and Doug Flutie had managed to buck those trends in the past.  Having watched him at Wisconsin, I can say that Wilson will be much better than Flutie.  But, like The Simpsons, he'll have to reach "all-time great" status before he gets any respect.

Alex Smith - Frasier.  If Bradford/70s is criminally underrated, Smith/Frasier is criminally overrated.  After the amount of suckitude Smith showed for years, it's gonna take more than one good year before I start giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Kevin Kolb/John Skelton - The Chevy Chase Show/The Magic Hour.  Yes, I know they were both talk shows.  I couldn't think of a regular comedy show that accurately described this two-headed trainwreck.  Besides, I dare you to think of a more appropriate comparison in this whole column.

NFC Playoffs
Eagles over Saints
Lions over Rams

Packers over Lions
Eagles over Falcons

Packers over Eagles

Disregard this whole damn thing if Michael Vick gets hurt.

Super Bowl
Packers over Patriots

We're getting several Super Bowls out of the Rodgers era.  Here's one more.

Awards
MVP: Aaron Rodgers
OPoY: Rodgers
DPoY: Nnamdi Asomugha
ORoY: Russell Wilson
DRoY: Fletcher Cox
CPoY: Peyton Manning
CoY: Bill Belichek

Know When to Fold 'Em, NFL.

Dear NFL Management,

Over the past several weeks of the preseason, you have locked out your referees.  I'm telling you here: you need to reverse course.  This week's announcement that the replacement refs would continue into at least Week 1 of the regular season was not good news for anyone--lest of all, you.  Like I said--reverse course.  You're not going to like the one you're headed down.

If you would, please look back on America roughly a century ago.  What were the Big Three of sports?  Baseball, boxing, and horse racing.  A hundred years later, baseball remains--joined instead by basketball and football.

Boxing's demise, in particular, is one that needs to be highlighted.  The sport alienated itself with one too many punch-drunk, enfeebled old man hobbling around with visible brain damage.  Young athletes saw this, and steered clear of boxing en masse.  The talent pool dried up, and the interest followed--America is only very mildly interested in watching the best of Eastern Europe and the Caribbean slug it out for world supremacy.  A century ago, would Kevin Durant be a heavyweight champion with devastating quickness, an explosive hook, and the best reach in history?  Absolutely.  A century from now, will Future Devin Hester be a punt returner risking his mental facilities on every play, or will he be a sneaky-effective goal scorer for the Chicago Xplosion of National Championship Lacrosse?

Either the NFL is blissfully unaware of how precariously close it hangs to losing national interest, or it is woefully overplaying its hand.  The fact is, the show cannot go on without the officials.  The replacement refs suck something awful.  We all know it.  And not only are they embarrassing to watch, they're missing calls like crazy.  Pass interference has become a giant crapshoot.  A shoddily-called game is a safety risk to players--the rules are largely there in place to protect them, and misenforcement causes confusion and weakens the effectiveness of the rulebook.

Yet, despite the safety concerns, the NFL is proceeding with the scabs.  A year after playing chicken with the Players' Union, to much hate and discontent from the fan base.  Said Players' Union, by the way, is none too impressed with being hung out to dry by the league in regards to safety.  Will the players strike?  Doubtful.  But the fact that it's even been put on the table at some point is utter lunacy.

You'd think, for all the trouble, that the refs were making an exorbitant demand.  That figure?  $2.5 million per year more in salaries, plus a pension plan.  That works out to a raise of just under $25k a year for each ref; per team the cost breaks up to just under $80k.  Or, one rookie roster bonus.

Singing about poker, Kenny Rogers said you "gotta know when to hold 'em; know when to fold 'em."  The NFL has no hand, and the world knows it.  They have precious little to gain, and everything to lose.  Each second they stonewall is another pull at the trigger in a crazy one-man game of Russian Roulette.

In fact, if the refs were smart, they'd come right back over the top.  "We've been watching the preseason, we KNOW that you need us.  The replacements are not getting the job done.  We know it, you know it, the fans know it, the players know it, the media knows it.  The emperor has no clothes.  We're upping our demands to $5 million.  Don't you dare say the league can't afford it.  The league can't afford NOT to do it."

Roger Goodell should come to his senses before this happens.

The NFL is in a terribly precarious position, as boxing was at one point.  If the league manages it's public relations well, makes a real commitment to player safety, and  does what is necessary to keep the game safe, competitive, and entertaining (which might, at some point, involve widening the field--but that's a whole 'nother column), they can keep the golden goose alive.

But it all starts here.  A show of good faith towards the men who keep the peace on the field might pay itself back many multiples over the long run.

The Top 5 Madden Games of All Time

In the timeless words of Aaron Froh, a "happy maddenoliday" to all of you.  Today marks the release of Madden '13, which EA Sports is hailing as "the best installment of the game yet!"  They don't tell you that their grading criteria for "best" is "which one can we get people to fork over $60 plus add-ons for?"  In their defense, you never asked.

Every year the Madden people make this claim, and every year the Madden fanbase calls "bullshit," before grumpily handing their credit card to the greasy local Gamestop cashier.  Statistically speaking, they HAD to have been on the money with their "best ever!" claim at least once.  Maybe a couple different times.  But, the question remains--when?

That is why we're publishing the Top 5 list today.  Why top 5?  It just seemed to shake out that way.  Besides, there's only 20 choices--is the second quartile of EA's efforts really that worthy of recognition?

5. John Madden Football '92
Talk about a trip down memory lane.  Our video game systems in the early '90s were still only marginally better than the games that could be programmed into a graphing calculator.  This particular game wasn't even licensed by the NFL or NFLPA--in fact, "Tecmo Super Bowl 2" was a much bigger deal at the time.

But the Madden series survived, and this was the first time they had any of the following:

• Instant replay
• Varying weather conditions
• A two-player mode (!)
• Audibles
• Pass Interference calls
• Injuries

Hold the thought on that last one.  Those are all important developments, but so was most of early gaming.  Why wasn't this spot given to the '94 game, which was the first to get licensing rights from the NFL and NFLPA?

Because the '94 version of the game didn't have players getting trucked by ambulances.  Checkmate.



Had EA shown the foresight to get Pat Summerall's voice into the game before 1994, and combined the ambulance with Pat's classically deadpanned "Oh no... there's a man down," this game would be even higher on the list.

4. Madden '03
It took EA precisely two years after the advent of the PS2 Generation of systems to realize "hey, wait, we've got all this processing power and we're just porting souped-up versions of our old 16-bit menu music.  Let's fix this problem!"  Madden '03 was the first game to license their own menu music, and also introduced the concept of minigames.  A huge win and a little win.  Penalty points for being the first game to not have a commentary team of Madden and Summerall.  Al Michaels wasn't terrible, but 2003 marked the first step on the road to Cris Collinsworth.  Not fucking cool.

3. Madden '99
And this game's includion is precisely WHY Madden '13 will never grace this list.  Madden '99 introduced legions of sports fans to Franchise Mode.

Sure, it was choppy and buggy.  You'd never get a QB worth drafting unless you got a Top 4 pick.  The draft was only four rounds long.  After three or four years, every team had a kicker and punter with an overall rating over 95, and the free agent scrap heap was littered with 85-95 rated kickers.  Drafted players in Franchise mode lacked school info or even first names.  And the actual gameplay itself that year was notoriously glitchy (the only penalties legitimately called were encroachment, false start, delay of game, and offsides; holding was called if your QB held the ball too long).  But I can't even begin to fathom the centuries worth of man-hours of productivity that got sunk into Franchise Mode over the years.

This year, Madden decided to scrap it, claiming that the experience is melded into "Connected Careers Mode."  Look, EA.  We all tried Superstar mode.  On paper, it was the greatest idea ever.  But the reason your focus groups kept telling you to keep Franchise mode is because the gameplay in Superstar SUCKS.  For some reason, your little brother NCAA College Football can include both modes and make them both ridiculously addicting.  Why can't you?

2. Madden '05
Is this a loaded list?  You betcha.  Four of the five choices were made primarily for arbitrary reasons.  This is one of them, and that's because I absolutely ran shit when it came to Madden '05 online.  See, there was a glitch that year where you could spread your defensive line, have them all rush to the outside, and you'd get pressure on every single play.  I figured this one out before anyone else online, and managed to work my way into the Top 50 on the PS2 online leaderboard.

Does this game still deserve such billing?  Oh, you bet.  EA developed the Hit Stick for that year's game, and may have indirectly led to the NFL's currently continuing concussion crisis.  Alliteration aside, there have been precious few advancements in the field of shit-talking during my lifetime.  I'd rank them in the following:

1. The Internet (now not only possible, but encouraged, to talk shit across great distances)
2. Beer Pong
3. The Hit Stick

Remember the scene in Swingers where they're playing NHL '94, and the one guy makes a big deal about how he's gonna make Gretzky's head bleed, then unpauses the game to do so and still talks mad shit?  That's what every two-player Hit Stick was like, only without the shady unpause.  And you know that guy who goes to shake your hand, then pulls it back and yells "Psyche!" as the whole class unloads both barrels of laughter at you?  That was what every failed Hit Stick was like, if only because the overexaggerated tackle attempt made the meager juke look a thousand times more impressive.  You could even Hit Stick the quarterback, which caused a near-heart-attack every time it happened to your guy.

Like Franchise Mode, the Hit Stick no longer features in the games.  Unlike Franchise Mode, there is actually a legitimate reason for it--kids play these games, kids emulate the amped-up bone-rocking shots, kids give themselves concussions, kids turn into vegetables later in life.  That does not, for one fraction of a second, make me miss it any less.

1. Madden '10
The most important lesson you need to learn to become a functioning adult is this: Life isn't fair.

Technically, I became an adult on December 17, 2006, when I turned 18.  Technically, it's a "transition" that we never truly 100% complete.  But I do remember learning about fairness at the hands of Madden '11 two summers ago.  My buddy across the street had bought the new game before I had.  He brought it over; we picked our teams through the "each spam randoms until a fair matchup pops up."  He had Vince Young and the Titans.  I had Derek Anderson and the Cardinals.  He spent the next hour or so running around in the backfield like a chicken with its head cut off, then launching off-balance prayers towards his wideouts in the endzone.  I lost 70-3 to this strategy.

I've never paid for a Madden game since.  The gameplay of Madden '10 was like a fine cigar--every subtle piece accentuating the next, and working towards a big picture of complex perfection.  The player collisions were realistic--the main gripe with the past few installments had been how remarkably easy arm-tackling was.  The playcalling system was simple enough to grasp, yet difficult enough that you actually felt like an NFL coach executing a gameplan.  The passing game was realistic as hell--mistakes were punished, and the margin of error for those mistakes shrunk exponentially if you were tring to make a throw that wasn't possible IRL.  You truly needed to know the game of football, inside and out, to master this one.  And, while EA's money-grubbing was picking up steam, it had not yet reached epic proportions.  Just tons of in-game ads, mostly for Snickers.  I actually enjoyed having "Patrick Chewing" as a draftable wideout, and the "Chews wisely!" advice before every coin toss.

But I guess I was the only one.  The focus groups complained about the difficultly of the passing game and, next season, we were back to every quarterback with an ounce of speed turning into a cross between Michael Vick and Jesus himself.  Meanwhile, everything that could be turned into a monetized add-on was.  Want to draft like it's the '02 engine again and you can see every rookie's stats?  Ten dollars!  Make it twenty, and we'll tell you EXACTLY how his ratings will play out every season.  For under a hundred bucks you can build an unstoppable super team and flatten the CPU resistance!

I'm probably not going to get a chance to play Madden '13--it's been nearly two years now since I had a working XBox 360, and I've got several thousand dollars worth of other expenses that take priority.  But from what I've heard, I'm not missing a whole lot.

Fantasy Island: Compete to Be Grantland's Fantasy Football Writer

I decided to submit an entry, if only because it would allow me to fulfill my lifelong dream of "finding a career that doesn't require you to wear pants."

                If you’re reading this right now, it’s safe to assume you’re a fantasy football gamer.  Or, you were catching up on Snooki’s latest escapades, saw a shirtless Rob Gronkowski, and investigated.  It’s not important, really.

                What is important, you ask?  The soaring costs of essentials: milk, eggs, beer.  The depressing fucking Presidential election (2004: Part Deux!).  Fixing your sorry social life.

                Spoiler alert: this column is not about any of those things.  Those things are all terribly depressing.  Fantasy Football, on the other hand, is exciting.  You and your old buddies from high school may have gotten boring jobs, ugly spouses, and disappointing children—but you can still stick it in their faces that you had the foresight to draft Ray Rice and Jordy Nelson last  year.  So motivated by another year of schadenfreude, let’s look at our Top 5 and Sleeper.

1.       1. Arian Foster

The best player gets the first pick.  Foster is an injury risk, and that’s really the only knock you can come up with for the guy.  I drafted LaDanian Tomlinson for two years in a row, and made the league title game both years.  The second time around, I got him with the second pick—somebody tried to get cute and go with Larry Johnson at one overall.  Just ask Jamarcus Russell how flirting with “potential” works out at one overall.

2.       2. Ray Rice

Yeah, he broke out big last year—and that always carries with it some bounceback risk.  But I’ve been pimping Rice for years now—I’m not about to hop off the bandwagon now that we’ve renovated and added club seating. 

3.       3. Aaron Rodgers

I’ve gotten used to having Aaron Rodgers as my quarterback.  It’s a really nice feeling.  I’d advise it for anyone.  At three overall, I’m taking the familiar comfort of Rodgers over rolling the dice with Ryan Mathews  and crapping out again.  And LeSean McCoy?  What happens when Vick inevitably gets hurt, and he’s lining up behind (gulp) Trent Edwards?  Please, tell me about smallish backs who run into 8- and 9-man fronts for two straight years and don’t explode.  I’ll wait.

Every year, someone who picked in the top 5 inevitably stumbles to a 2-win finish.  At this point in the draft, your mission is clear: Don’t Be That Guy.

4.       4. Calvin Johnson

As a Packer fan, I know all too well how it feels to be lined up against him—as a multi-time fantasy owner of his, I know how comforting he can be in that format.  You’re gonna get cute and hope Chris Johnson can rejuvenate himself two years after Jeff Fisher rode him into the ground like a horse in quicksand?  And when’s the last time Maurice Jones-Drew won a fantasy title?  If Tiki Barber was the Reuben of Fantasy Football, MJD is the spinning rims—a luxury item possessed in great disproportion by people who are not winners.

5.       5. LeSean McCoy

McCoy could very well be that “Top 5 pick who ends up in the toilet” referenced above.  That’s why picking fifth this year involves strategy.  With all the best options off the board, your smart play is to grab McCoy.  Wait a couple weeks, and just think about what Vick did for his backs two seasons ago. Then, sell high.   If the team that nabbed Rodgers or Megatron starts out 0-2 or 0-3, try and swing them into a panic deal.  If you’re lucky, you might end up even better off than if you had “won” the random draft order and drafted them.

Sleeper: Michael Vick

Yes, I’m counting Ron Mexico as a sleeper this year.  He’s not going until the fourth round on average.  If you don’t have a QB by then, roll the dice with Vick.  If he doesn’t get hurt, you’re going to win your league.  Shit, he can get hurt as long as he’s back for the fantasy playoffs.  If he goes on a tear for the first few weeks, you could deal him for FAR more value than the 44^th pick (his ADP).  If the draft market doesn’t give you one of the Big Three , ride that Vick like you’re trying to pay off your tuition.

DISCLAIMER: As always, advice is for entertainment purposes only.  If your dumb ass decides to listen to someone whose sign-off advertises him as “having finished in 2^nd place enough times to start perennially naming his teams ‘Buffalo Bills,’” it’s for the best: you probably weren’t going to spend that money wisely anyway.