Four Regions: A Look Back (or; "A Retarded Monkey and a Dart Board Could've Picked This Sumbitch Better)

So it's been two weeks since I last posted here.  In those two weeks, lots of shit has gone down.

-The first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament which, if you've been paying attention, are kind of a big deal to me.  If you haven't been paying attention, feel free to look back at the last five or six posts on here to gain some understanding of the context.  It's not like I'm going anywhere.

-My spring break.  In an ideal world, this would've included me going to , drinking more than any reasonable human being should, admiring the stuffed bikinis on the beach as my girlfriend either looked at me disapprovingly or outright punched me in the balls (depending on where I was on the "Still Able to Check Girls Out Subtly----------Completely Fucking Hammered And 'Subtle' Might As Well Be A Chinese Word" spectrum), yelling at random objects, dancing with random objects, and probably leaving the week with a warrant out for my arrest and at least three types of VD.  Since the end of my tenure at my last regular job predates Alciedes Escobar's major-league debut, however, this was not the case.  A more realistic summary includes masturbation, watching DVDs of "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" in my underwear, sneaking from my parents' liquor cabinet like it's junior year again, masturbation, furious attempts to find weed in a town that  I have zero connections in, masturbation, watching the second weekend of the tournament, going to the Bucks game Wednesday night (since my buddy Pat had an extra ticket), masturbation, sleeping past noon, being reminded by my mom how bad she wants me to move back home after I graduate, and masturbation.

I wish I had a better story for my readers about why I've been neglecting them, but I don't.  If it makes you feel any better, tell yourself that I was mauled by a bear and had to go to the emergency room.  In fact, I'm going to keep telling myself this, as it is much less depressing than my actual break.

-Yes, the Milwaukee Bucks are still players in the postseason hunt.  Yes, the Milwaukee Brewers start their season in less than a week.  Yes, these are my two main reasons for living at this point in time.  And yes, I should be ashamed of that.

-The second weekend of break, I did manage to make some money doing an actual job, albeit a temporary one.  By contrast, I've been writing content for this blog since August--counting research, deleted posts that didn't make the cut of publication, and social marketing, we're talking at least 75 hours of work.  And in this one weekend, I made 30 times as much as I have writing.  I'm not saying that you HAVE to click on the ads in the right column of this page, but anything that keeps me from having to give blowjobs for beer money is a plus at this point in my life.

(There's a lesson to be made here: if you want to start up a blog, do it--but do it for the right reasons.  If you do it because you enjoy writing, because it makes you happy, and because you feel like you can make people laugh/think/pay attention, you are good.  If you want to do it to make money, prepare to be disappointed.  Realistically, I would probably be financially better off working in a sweatshop in the armpit of the world than doing this for a living.  And I am not kidding about that at all.)

If you are hoping for things to get less depressing now that I'm done updating you and moving on to the meat of this post, you might want to click away.  There are lots of blogs about unicorns, kittens, and Nazis that will be far more pleasant.  Okay, maybe the last one won't.  But there has been nothing pleasant about trying to forecast this year's tournament.  Since bullet points seem to be in style today,

-I lost three of my Final Four teams in the second fucking round, yet my bracket is still better than 29% of Yahoo entries and 19% of ESPN entries.  It goes without saying that I hardly turned in a championship showing this year--but averaging those two out, one-fourth of people did fucking worse!
-My girlfriend had Gonzaga and Marquette--yes, you read that right, Gonzaga and Marquette--in the Final Four, and is still in 5th place in her entire dorm's Bracket Challenge (for context: we're talking about a 10-story dorm, free entry, and cheesy prizes for the winners).
-In short, as the alternate title of this thing says: a retarded monkey and a dart board could've done a better than average job of picking this year's bracket.  Several billion dollars of wasted productivity, and lots of failure to show for it.  Bravo, America.

That being said, I'm not doing separate posts for each region this time around.  Everything is in one place.  But we're going to look back at what went right (not a lot), what went wrong (a metric fuckton of stuff), and what we can learn from it (if my bookie comes up to you and asks if you've seen me, the correct answer is "I think he moved to Brazil, dude").

Midwest Region

I overrated: The easy answer here is obviously Kansas.  Has a majority-vote champion ever fallen so flat?  We all thought that their depth would be their strength--instead, the converse turned out to be true.  Their lack of an Alpha Dog, someone who could step up and say "Okay, there is no fucking way we are losing this game," was what killed them.  Ali Farokhmanesh had that mentality for Northern Iowa: "Okay, this is my senior year and if we lose, my career is over.  We're not going to lose.  Period.  If it kills me, we will win this game."  Again, this is why I love senior-heavy mid-majors to overachieve in the tournament--the experience is nice, but a majority of these guys have no future playing the game or, if they have a future, it's in a place like Turkmenistan.  Desperation brings out the best in the human spirit.  With one title under their belts already and a fat NBA paycheck in each of their futures, do you think Sherron Collins or Cole Aldrich really cared about that game to the point that Farokhmanesh or Jordan Eglseder did?  For the first two, in the grand scheme of things, it's a blip in the radar.  For the last two, that game was literally the defining 40 minutes of their lives, win or lose.

I underrated: Michigan State.  From a gambling perspective, I am terrified of the Michigan State-Butler game.  It's like a collision course of "Nobody believed in us!"  Everyone wrote MSU off after the Kalin Lucas injury--yet they overcame Northern Iowa's Cinderella power and survived a brawl with Tennessee.  These guys are gelling at exactly the right time.

I properly rated: San Diego State.  What does that say about this year's tournament that one of my four regional "most properly rated" titles goes to a team that I correctly said was a stupid upset pick even as they were being heralded as a sexy upset pick?  I quit.

Interesting Fact: Ohio State was the only team to make it to the second weekend who was supposed to.

Another Interesting Fact: Georgetown sucks.  They really, really, suck.  Hard.  If I was Austin Freeman, I would think long and hard before declaring for the NBA Draft.  And if I was a sports agent Freeman wanted to hire in the event that he does declare, I would think long and hard about whether I wanted to spend this summer negotiating with Turkish League or Italian League teams.

Now Class, What Did We Learn?  We learned that talented seniors with nothing to lose are to be feared, heavily.  We learned that Bruce Pearl and Tom Izzo know how to get the most from their teams in March.  We learned that teams without a clearly defined go-to guy crumble in close games.  In other words, we learned absolutely no new information.  I will no proceed to bang my head on the wall repeatedly.  To the girls in the apartment next door, I'm sorry for the noise.


West Region

I overrated: BYU.  I thought their three-point shooting would be enough to carry them to an upset over K-State.  However, when you only attempt 16 threes over the course of the game, that's just not gonna happen.  How do you not come out gunning from long range when you're the top three-point percentage team in the nation, and a hot hand from three blew away Florida in the second overtime of Round One?

I underrated: Xavier.  Jordan Crawford is the real deal.  Like "if I was an NBA scout for a lottery team, I would be watching every existing piece of footage on this kid" real.  His and Jacob Pullen's double-overtime duel Thursday night is an early contender for Sports Moment of 2010.

I properly rated: Murray State.  Very few opportunities for bragging rights with my bracket this year, but here's one of them: I nailed this one, bitches!  Suck it, world!

Okay, now that we're done with that, enjoy this clip of the first (and most awesome) buzzer-beater of the tournament.  The best part comes at the 23 second mark: three benchwarming ginger kids who all look like they just watched their parents get murdered.


That was fun.

Theory of the Day, Supported By Incontrovertible Evidence: The fact that Jacob Pullen's first name isn't "Richard" is proof that his parents have no sense of humor.  I'm sorry, the "Pullen It Off" puns just don't cut it for me.

Most Gawd-Awful Coach of the Touranment: Dave Rose, BYU.  How the FUCK do you only shoot 16 threes against a 2-seed when that's your team's strength?  Doesn't airing it out give you the best chance to win?  Didn't Jimmer Fredette have actual NBA Jam-style flames shooting out of his head during the second overtime of the Florida game?  Rose seemed more concerned with holding down the margin of defeat than making any kind of effort to pursue victory.  You owe your team better, Dave.

Now Class, What Did We Learn?  Alpha Dog vs. Alpha Dog battles during prime-time television make for March memories.  If you were in a pool with a Butler alum, you probably lost.  Vermont would've been at least 10 points closer if TJ Sorrentine was sitting courtside for the game.  Never, ever, back a 'fraidy-cat coach in an upset bid.  The Big East sucked a fat one this year.

East Region

I overrated: Wisconsin.  In order for them to exploit a perfect matchup against Kentucky, they would've actually had to... get to Kentucky.  Instead?  Wofford almost pulled the upset, before handing away the game in the final minutes.  Then Cornell blew them off the court.  I didn't know it was possible to have a "trap game" when you're not even playing--but Cornell-Wisconsin definitely qualified as a trap game in my bracket.

I underrated: Washington.  The best-kept secret of the tournament is that the most superbly-played game so far happened in the first round: Marquette-Washington.  Both teams shot over 50%, both teams shot over 60% from three, both teams had four players in double digits, came down to a buzzer-beater from Calvin Pondexter... if you love watching basketball, you loved that game.  Both of those teams deserved to be in the Sweet Sixteen.

I properly rated: Kentucky.  Sure, they are four talented freshmen.  But at the end of the day, four freshmen playing for their draft prospects is not a good game plan to get to the Final Four.  I told you all that their inexperience in close games would haunt them.  I knew that they would run away to a few huge wins early (29 points over ETSU, 30 points over Wake Forest, 15 points over Cornell), but that when they faced a team that could stay in the game, they would melt down.  I just missed the boat on which team would force said meltdown.

Most Gawd-Awful Coach of the Tournament Award, Honorable Mention: A well-trained monkey could've taken Rick Barnes' collection of All-Americans to the Sweet Sixteen.  He's either the college version of Chris Wallace (taking all the best high school players who will never be good college players) or Mike Dunleavy (taking gifted teams and careening them into a lightpole).  The fact that all three of the above are still employed is a crying shame.

Reason (Rick Barnes Won't Give The Media) For Texas' Epic Late-Season Collapse: It's a recession, guys.  We had to cut payroll this year.

Best Example of Life Imitating Art in Sports History: Kentucky Basketball vs. Ricky Bobby.  Either they win, or they crash the car.  If they're not first, they're last.  Also, most of them will not obtain a college degree, like Ricky.

Now Class, What Did We Learn?  Don't overlook a bad second-round matchup because you love a team's thrid-round matchup.  A great team will always outperform a collection of great players.  Darington Hobson should start looking for affordable apartments in the Czech Republic.  Just because a team steamrolled their last opponent doesn't make them a guarantee to beat the next one.  Just because it didn't count on the scoreboard doesn't make it awesome:


South Region

I overrated: The Big East.  At this point, I wouldn't pick Villanova to make the final of the NIT, much less the real tournament.  And I'm seriously considering deleting the entire Luke Harangody section out of the Tournament Manifesto 2.0.  It never happened, okay?  What's amazing is that Notre Dame still almost held off Old Dominion, despite four points from their best player.

I underrated: St. Mary's.  I wish I had seen them before the tournament--I've never seen a team that makes the extra pass so well.  My favorite team to watch all month.

I properly rated: Nobody.  I missed five of the eight second-round teams, three of four Sweet Sixteen teams, half of the regional final, and the Final Four rep.  The worst region of my  bracket-picking life, by a wide margin.

Mind-Blowing Stat of the Touranment: Not only did Notre Dame only get four points from Harangody, but they attempted three free throws as a team all game.  That's got to be a record for basketball games not refereed by Dick Bavetta.

Mind-Blowing Transaction of the Tournament: Siena flopped as the most-picked upset of the tournament (34.7% of Yahoo users took them as a 13-over-4), yet Fran McCaffery turned that turd into a power-conference deal at Iowa.  Not saying that McCaffery doesn't deserve to coach at that level, just that the timing of it--especially after he won in the first round the previous two years, and got no big-time offers--is uncanny, to say the least.

Now Class, What Did We Learn?  Coach K can indeed coach a team of All-Americans on a roped-off red carpet path to the Final Four.  When you load a bracket with the worst possible 2, 3, 4, and 5-seeds of the tournament, picking the winners is about as reliable as picking the weather.  Between Duke's Final Four trip and the Yankees' World Series win, God truly hates sports fans.

March Madness 2010: South Region/Final Four Quickie

I planned on being able to have a write-up ready for the last region and Final Four... only I didn't plan on 12 hours of drunkenness for St. Patrick's Day.  Needless to say, there was no time to be found for blogging.  Since the tournament starts in less than 12 hours, I want my picks on record.  So here we go.  With this, you can put it together, and I will go into more detail tomorrow.

South Region

Sweet 16: Duke over Louisville, Siena over Utah State, Notre Dame over Baylor, Villanova over Richmond
Final Four: Villanova over Duke

Final Four

Kansas over Pitt
Villanova over West Virginia

Kansas over Villanova

March Madness 2010: East Region Preview

Time for Good Region Number Two!  We've got John Wall, the Big East champions, the Pac-10 champions (though as an 11-seed), a Wisconsin team that knocked off Purdue and came ohsoclose to upsetting Ohio State, two of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation (Marquette and Cornell), a Missouri team that knocked off Kansas State, and the ex-number-one-ranked-team-in-the-nation, Texas, as an 8-seed.  I mean, holy shit--read that back again.  That's just a brutal region.  And if Kentucky can pull off a Final Four run, it could possibly stand as the most brutal ever faced by a 1-seed.  Formerly top-ranked Texas in the second round, a giant-hunting Wisconsin team that matches up disturbingly well with the 'Cats in the Sweet Sixteen, then the champions of the best conference in the entire NCAA in the Elite Eight.  Think of it like a car trying to jump over a gap in a bridge.  If you make it, it's awesome and nobody who witnessed it ever forgets.  But that's a pretty big if.

Anyways, enough foreplay.  On to the picks.

First Round
-1. Kentucky over 16. East Tennessee State
The Selection Committee's statement regarding the controversy over their historically tough road to the Final Four?  "Hey, at least we didn't give them Georgetown as a 16-seed in the first round!"
-8. Texas over 9. Wake Forest
Always beware the mega-talented, underperforming teams come March.  You never know what might spark them to be who people thought they were.
-12. Cornell over 5. Temple
Okay, you want a 12-5 upset, buddy?  Try a 40% three-point shooting team with tournament experience (two straight years, at that) going against a shaky mid-major at-large bid with losses to St. Johns and Charlotte.  This is the one to watch.  Teams like Temple with a "12" in front of their name always seem to get just enough lucky bounces.
-4. Wisconsin over 13. Wofford
Wofford has already lost to two Big Ten teams seeded lower than the Badgers.
-6. Marquette over 11. Washington
The Pac-10 champion is only an 11-seed.  And they only have two teams in the tournament!  The Atlantic 10 and WAC have both surpassed the Pac-10 in both categories.  I hate the East Coast bias as much as anyone, but you've gotta put a competitive product out, guys.
-3. New Mexico over 14. Montana
Meh.  Doubt too many people will be flipped to this game.
-10. Missouri over 7. Clemson
Clemson doesn't impress me.  Missouri beating Kansas State does.  And the Big 12's depth this year is impressive.
-2. West Virginia over 15. Morgan State
Another textbook Happy To Be Here team.  Enjoy the experience.

Second Round
-1. Kentucky over 8. Texas
If there was ever an 8-over-1 upset to pick, this is the one.  Unproven Kentucky team still in their first tournament weekend (first one ever for 4 of their starting 5), Texas team that was ranked #1 and started off 17-0.  Problem is, Texas is 7-9 since then.  Here lies the greatest long-term collapse not to involve the New York Mets or Bucky Dent in sports history.
-4. Wisconsin over 12. Cornell
Wisconsin suffocates Cornell's shooters on the defensive end, cleans up the boards, gets to the line and manages to score while putting Cornell in foul trouble... (nodding).  Sounds incredibly possible.
-6. Marquette over 3. New Mexico
Best wins for New Mexico: Cal (8 seed) and BYU (7) twice.  Making Marquette arguably the toughest team they have faced all year.  New Mexico is the poster child for the "top seeds have never been weaker" argument that's being made this year.  Never has a 3-seed played so many creampuffs.
-2. West Virginia over 10. Missouri
You're not going to see two 2-seeds go down on opening weekend.

Sweet Sixteen
-4. Wisconsin over 1. Kentucky
Oh, yes.  You better believe I went there.  Now, before you call the paramedics to take me off to the loony bin (two Facebook friends have already declared that I must be drunk to make this pick), hear me out.  Believe me, after a middle-school mistake in which I took 5-seeded Wisconsin as a Final Four team and watched them drop in the first round, I've taken the noble cause of fighting homerism seriously.  I wouldn't make this pick if I wasn't extremely confident in it, and I am.  Here's why:
1. Kentucky is starting four freshmen and, of their close games this year, only Vanderbilt could be considered a good team.  Other than that, their wins by 5 or less include Miami of Ohio, North Carolina, UConn, Auburn, and Miss St.  Put them in a close game against a semi-decent team (as in "nobody in the above list") and suddenly rookie mistakes--like John Wall short-arming a potential game-winner from the corner--will be huge, and maybe Cousins isn't able to outmuscle the entire defense for the put-back...
2. Wisconsin takes care of the basketball (only 8.9 turnovers per game... best in the NCAA), makes their free-throws (73.5%... top 20 in the NCAA) and grinds the tempo of the game down to a crawl.  It's an ugly game to watch, but they aren't going to get blown out of the arena by anybody.  Hell, they shot under 20% in the first half against Illinois and still had it at 10 points--you don't pull that off unless you really milk your possessions.
3. Kentucky wins by blowing teams out, and Wisconsin isn't a team that can be blown out.  Meaning that the Badgers might not jump out to a lead, but they won't go away.  They'll come roaring back, and keep it close, and keep the seeds of doubt in the Wildcat players' minds.  Why won't these guys go away?!  Then, the doubt turns to rattled-freshman panic.  And mistakes.  And Wisconsin capitalizes on mistakes.
I do think the bracket this year is laughably unfair.  Kentucky has to run the table against Texas (pre-season top 3 team), Wisconsin (top-15 team that is a match-up nightmare for UK's style of play) and West Virginia (tournament winners in the nation's toughest conference).  Kansas (the best 1 seed) and Ohio State (the best 2 seed) are in the same bracket.  Meanwhile, Duke gets their region as gift-wrapped as possible without drawing St. Mary's School For The Blind in the sweet 16.  It fucking sucks.  But that's reality.  And the reality is spelled out plain as day above.  If it makes you feel better, Kentucky fans, this might cause one or two of your freshman phenoms to stick around in school another year.
2. West Virginia over 6. Marquette
The state of Wisconsin already used up all of it's goodwill with the March Madness Gods in the above matchup.  No chance in hell the March Madness Gods will ever allow a Marquette-Wisconsin matchup with that much on the line.

Elite Eight
2. West Virginia over 4. Wisconsin
Do I love Wisconsin as the "perfect storm" matchup to topple Kentucky?  You bet your ass I do.  Do I love them so much against the Big East champions, a team who has won in every way imaginable in the NCAA tournament and won't give the Badgers error-prone invitaitons to take the game late?  Not really.  And especially not in such a potential Letdown Game.

March Madness 2010: West Region Preview

So, the Midwest is down.  For the first part of today, we move to one of the bottom regions--for the sake of this tournament, I'm considering the Midwest and East the "top" regions, and the West and South the "bottom" regions.  Why?  Because the MW and E are stacked, and the W and S are both fairly sketchy.  As we will soon see.

Okay, enough with the rambling.  On to the picks.

First Round
-1. Syracuse over 16. Vermont
Though I would loooove to see Vermont win this one, if only for the decades of shit-talking to 'Cuse fans that it would win them.  12-over-5 upset in 2005?  Awesome.  16-over-1 upset in 2010?  Compoundedly super-awesome.  Honestly, who outside the state of New York wouldn't love to see that?
(Regardless of how it ends, I'm excited to see how this game works out between the fans.  Has a 16-seed ever had ammo to talk shit to a 1-seed before this?  These are the kinds of questions PTI and the like should be asking.)
-9. Florida State over 8. Gonzaga
67% of Yahoo users are taking Gonzaga.  That kind of disparity in an 8-9 matchup?  The Gambling Gods cannot be happy.  Remember, there is a reason that bookies are filthy stinking rich.
(Also, my girlfriend is taking Gonzaga--or, as she calls them, "Godzilla"--to the Final Four.  Odds of this backfiring, them going out in the first round, and me giving her shit for this until next March?  Looking like a good bet.)
-5. Butler over 12. UTEP
Remember back in 2007, when a glut of people picked Long Beach State over Tennessee because LBSU was a 12-seed and had Snoop Dogg connections?  And how LBSU lost by 40 points?  Also, remember in that same year how Butler was another trendy pick to get upset in a 12-5 matchup, then made it to the second weekend?  The lesson here?  Choose your upsets wisely.  And this is not a wise choice.
-13. Murray State over 4. Vanderbilt
Billy Kennedy is an experienced tournament coach, and the Racers' top 6 scorers are separated by only 1.1 points per game.  On top of that, Vanderbilt lost a 4-13 matchup to Siena in 2008.  Most of the Commodore players were on that team, and you know it will be in the back of their heads if they can't put it away early.  And while Murray State may not be capable of blowing people out of the building they are a balanced, steady team that can keep it close and capitalize on a few mental errors by rattled players down the stretch.
(By the way, every Vanderbilt upperclassman who was there for the '08 game against Siena will spend the rest of the time until the game is over PRAYING that this doesn't happen.  And if it does? Well, there's no rioting like drunken, angry college sports nut rioting!)
-11. Minnesota over 6. Xavier
While you have to watch out for the "mid-level team that played into a big-time seed" conference tournament success, riding the "we've already pulled off a Cinderella story in our conference tourney to get here" team is encouraged.  As they always say, the most dangerous man in a fight is the man with nothing to lose.  Minnesota's season should be over--at this point, everything is gravy.  So we've got a 40% three-point shooting crew playing with nothing to lose and a spring in their step from knocking off Michigan State and Purdue.  Xavier, after that?  Should be cake.
-3. Pittsburgh over 14. Oakland
You know how every year, there's a 3-14 game that ends up being ridiculously entertaining and, if you're lucky, ends with Northwestern State pulling the upset?  This is not going to be that game.  Textbook "We're Just Happy To Be Here" team.
-7. BYU over 10. Florida
You might remember BYU as a textbook example of a Three-Point Bomber candidate.  You also might remember Florida as a team that was supposedly on the bubble, and is incredibly lucky to have scored as high as a 10-seed?  Bring bodybags for this one.
-2. Kansas State over 15. North Texas
Just imagine where this team would be if they still had Michael Beasley.

Second Round
-1. Syracuse over 9. Florida State
Yeah... this isn't exactly Georgetown trying to pull the huge-underdog upset of a 1-seeded Syracuse.  Haul over the bodybags from the Florida game.
-5. Butler over 13. Murray State
You've gotta respect Butler--they've always at least held up their seed in the tournament, if not exceeded it.  They're not the type of team to let Murray State beat them.
3. Pittsburgh over 11. Minnesota
Tubby Smith's reclamation project isn't quite that far along yet.  They'll be in the Sweet 16 sooner, rather than later.  This is not the year, though.
7. BYU over 2. Kansas State
When the Stormin' Mormons are on, they can shoot the lights out.  And coming off the blowout win I'm calling over Florida, they're gonna have a little bit of swagger.  I can easily see them catching fire.  Kansas State's perimeter defense was exposed by Kansas three times this season.  BYU isn't Kansas-good, but this is a terrible matchup for K-State.

Sweet Sixteen
1. Syracuse over 5. Butler
One thing that was noted repeatedly after the third round of the Big East tournament was that, with the teams and coaches as familiar with each other as they are, most underdogs always have a shot.  Outside of that kind of environment?  There are teams that might be able to beat Syracuse--just that Butler is not one of them.
3. Pitt over 7. BYU
Pitt was able to handily beat Marquette, a similar-style team to BYU who is seeded higher.  Pitt's D will hassle the BYU shooters, Ashton Gibbs will take over, and we'll be looking at an end to the Cinderella dreams of BYU.

Elite Eight
3. Pitt over 1. Syracuse
Again, I love 'Cuse against non-Big East coaches who aren't familiar with them.  But against Pitt, who already beat them once this year, it's a lot tougher to call.  I'm gonna say Jamie Dixon goes from Sweet Sixteen to Elite Eight to Final Four in consecutive years.

March Madness 2010: Midwest Regional Preview

So here's Part 2 of our six-part NCAA Tournament preview.  If you missed the March Manifesto 2.0, feel free to go check that out at some point.  But whereas that dealt with a skeleton strategy that is refined and applied every year, now we're delving into what you really want: the cheat sheets for This Year Right Now.

Disclaimer Number One: Neither Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe or it's author are responsible for any money you lose as a result of following the advice here.  It's your responsibility.  Then again, if you follow my advice and win big, I'll gladly let you share your winnings with me.  I'm an accomidating guy like that.
Disclaimer Number Two: Over 90% of my readership comes from the United States, and I need to emphasize that gambling is illegal in most of that particular country.  You see that, Government Agent Who Is "Randomly" Monitoring My Computer Thanks To The Patriot Act?  I'm being good.  Now please let my family go?

First Round
-1. Kansas over 16. Lehigh
This one doesn't even deserve a write-up.
-9. Northern Iowa over 8. UNLV
I like UNI.  They went 18-3 in a tough mid-major conference, outscore their opponents by 9 points per game, and top 75% from the line as a team.  They don't have the star power to beat any big-time teams, but I like them over UNLV for sure.
-5. Michigan State over 12. New Mexico State
Look elsewhere for your 5-12 upset than a mid-major with 11 losses going against a Tom Izzo squad.  Say what you will about his inability to beat Wisconsin, Izzo always has his team prepared for March.
-4. Maryland over 13. Houston
March basketball  can easily turn into a one-man show.  And in this case, Grievous Vasquez is far and away the best player on the court, bar none.  Expect him to take over.
-6. Tennessee over 11. San Diego State
The Aztecs came close to stunning Indiana during the 2006 tournament.  It's not gonna happen this time around.
-3. Georgetown over 14. Ohio
Don't be a hero, Billy.  This one's not gonna happen.
-10. Georgia Tech over 7. Oklahoma State
Don't be fooled by Tech's record--playing in the same conference with Duke, Maryland, and Clemson hurt them.  The Okies won't be able to handle Gani Lawal and Derrick Shumpert down low, both of them average at least 12.5 points and 8 rebounds per game.
-2. Ohio State over 15. Cal-Santa Barbara
I'll say it once: forcing Kansas and Ohio State to go through each other on the road to the Final Four while Duke gets it's path plowed clean is a fucking travesty.  This was my championship pick, until the committee went and screwed the pooch.

Second Round
-1. Kansas over 9. Northern Iowa
UNI has a great little team, and against a lesser upset candidate I'd go for it.  But not here.
-4. Maryland over 5. Michigan State
A fantastic matchup, this one should be happening a round later.  I think this one goes down to the wire, which is where the Alpha Dog Corollary comes into play.  With Maryland, you know that Vasquez is the guy to take the big shot.  With Michigan State, well, that's the thing: it might be Kalin Lucas, it might be Raymar Morgan, or Draymond Green or Durrell Summers.  When the game is on the line with seconds to go, there should be no doubt who the play is being designed for, and he should have no doubt that he is getting the ball in the hoop somehow.
-6. Tennessee over 3. Georgetown
I'm not impressed enough with Georgetown's body of work to see them as worthy of a 3-seed.  Making it to the Big East final was good, but is it worth enough to offset their 10-8 conference record prior to that?  I say no, and I say they are Overseeded Team #1 who isn't making it out of the first weekend.
-2. Ohio State over 10. Georgia Tech
Not a chance in hell Evan Turner lets Ohio State go home on the first weekend.

Sweet Sixteen
-1. Kansas over 4. Maryland
I feel so boring not picking any upsets in this round.  But let's be realistic--if your life is on the line, and you have to pick these games, is there any chance you're going against Kansas or Ohio State?  I say no.
-2. Ohio State over 6. Tennessee
Again, don't get cute.  You're going to pick against the best player in the nation, someone who can take over a game at any point and carry his team, you better have a damn good reason to do so.

Elite Eight
-1. Kansas over 2. Ohio State
And in terms of "damn good reasons," you've gotta put "I'm picking the better team over the better player" as one of the best.  Turner is a monster, but Kansas' entire team is great.  Whoever wins this one will take the title, and I just don't see Kansas being beatable this year.

March Manifesto 2.0

Three years ago, when I was a senior in high school, I wrote a monthly column for my school newspaper.  If you're a die-hard reader, this isn't news to you--I critiqued one of my old columns a few months back.  If you are a new reader, it might surprise you to learn that I actually have experience with this whole "writing" thing.  I assure you I do, way more than you know.


March Madness has always been a passion of mine.  Again, this shouldn't need explaining.  I've scheduled out six posts in three days because of it, if you look above.  Normal weeks consist of one posting, maybe.  Am I throwing down the gauntlet this week?  You betcha.


Back to me, three years ago.  For my March column, I chose to act as the Dr. Phil of Bracketology, dispensing life advice on how to fill in yours, year after year.  Three years later, some things hold up and some need tweaking.  So we'll roll out Version 2.0.

Ladies and gentlemen, the wait is over. March Madness is upon us. In all honesty, the NCAA Basketball Tournament is the single most exciting sporting event one can see. The Super Bowl? Please—it’s usually all hype and a disappointing game. World Cup? They only play one game at a time—and on top of that, it’s only every four years! There is one thing that brings sadness to most people in the month of March, though. No, I’m not talking about the inevitable Alfonso Soriano ACL tear—that only brings sadness to Cubs fans. I’m talking about the annual NCAA Tournament pool. Every year, 90 percent of Americans get their brackets absolutely shredded. If you are reading this, you are probably one of them. And so I would like to offer you, the reader, this handy guide to filling out your brackets. (As always, this guide is for entertainment purposes only. If you follow these tips and lose money, it’s your fault—not mine. Way to screw it up, buddy.)

1. In it to win it
Pools are usually designed with the winner getting a staggering majority of the prize money. Or, you know, they would be if gambling were legal. The difference between first and second place in a NCAA pool is usually very disproportionate. And yet every year, I see dozens of people picking all favorites (these people also tend to drive five below the speed limit, will never enter the crosswalk if there is a chance they will have to run to beat the car, and always stand on 16 when playing blackjack). Don’t be afraid to take a chance. Just remember Ricky Bobby’s mantra: If you’re not first, you’re last. Follow this rule to a point but, as always, don’t be stupid. A #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed. Don’t pencil the 16 into the Elite Eight just because you like their mascot. You’re smarter than that--at least, you should be.

2. Look for a team that does one thing, and does it well
These are the guys that go further than expected, because it’s hard to beat someone when they make you play their game. Whether it is shooting the three-ball (Kansas, 2008), dominating inside (Ohio State, 2007), outlasting the rest of the mediocre field (Florida, 2006), or a team that is head and shoulders above the rest of the field (North Carolina, 2005 or Florida, 2007—the former sent six players to the next year’s draft lottery; the latter returned 5 starters from a national champion), the team that wins it is the team that has its signature, and can play their game better than anyone else out there. So when you see that Kansas is in the top 5 in the nation for three-point shooting percentage, or that Wisconsin combines the best turnover rate in the nation with a top-15 free-throw percentage, you should sit up and take note.

3. Pick your upsets wisely
You need to look deeper than the seeds for this one.  Three years ago, I stressed the importance of defense and three-point shooting.  Momentum is key in the tournament, and the teams who can catch fire from downtown and force turnovers can steal momentum and, ultimately, the game.  Clearly, these are still very important, but there are a few other things to look for that didn’t make it into Version 1.0.

-A definitive Alpha Dog.  If the game comes down to one shot, it has to be crystal clear whose job it is to carry the team.  Think TJ Sorrentine for Vermont five years ago burying a Fuck-You-Three from the parking lot.
-Age and experience.  Teams with a glut of seniors are a plus, as are teams with players who have tournament experience.  By the way, Siena has won a tournament game two years in a row now, and they are lurking as a 13-seed in the weak South region.  Just sayin’.

Picking every 12-seed just on the basis of being a 12-seed isn’t a smart strategy.  Conversely, picking every favorite to win is no fun, and not going to win you anything.  Find the matchups you can exploit, and for chrissakes exploit them!

4. Ignore the majority
My secret solution for picking the games that I have no idea how to pick. All you do is look at who the majority likes better, and go the other way. There is a reason that sports bookies drive brand-new Maseratis with platinum rims, and it is not because the general public knows anything about picking sporting events. As George Carlin once said, “Think about how stupid the Average American is. Well, HALF of ‘em are stupider than THAT!” So when you see that over 50% of Yahoo users have a Kansas-Kentucky championship game… well, you get the picture. And, as a last resort, if the general public seems too split for you to be confident, simply ask the worst gambler you know who they are taking, and go the other way. Works every time.

5. Help for Homers (and I don’t mean Simpson)
Realize this: a school from your state will largely be picked to go a hell of a lot further than they will elsewhere around the country. Regardless of what you think of any of them as a team, see Rule #1—if everyone else picks the same champion as you, fifth place and “Thanks for trying, but no money for you” is your destiny. Fight the temptation to ride the home team further than you should—I always ask myself when picking games involving Wisconsin, Marquette, or UWM: if my life depended on this pick, would I still make it this way? If I hesitate, that means it’s time to side with the bad guys.

Conversely, you need to do the same thing when you get an urge to pick against a team you absolutely hate. Remember: the goal is to win, not to be as self-righteous as possible. But, by all means, feel free to throw a party when Duke eventually loses. Isn’t that the best part of March?

And remember, above all: Gambling is a serious problem. Many people have lost it all, even on a so-called “sure thing.” Be responsible this March, and don’t do anything Jesus wouldn’t do. There, I said it. Now put the gun away and step away from my girlfriend, officer.

Random Snippets: 3/12/10

-If the first weekend of March Madness is like sex, Championship Week is like the pre-sex blowjob.  Maybe it's not quite as good in comparison because of the utter awesomeness of the ensuing event, but it still kicks a staggering amount of ass.  To continue the analogy, the regular season is like the "dating, but not in bed yet" period we all remember from high school--you tune out most of the time, pay attention for a few notable moments, and wait for March to come around.  God, I'm a bad person.

-Earlier this week I stated that I am not wagering against John Wall under any circumstances.  After this afternoon's finish, we can add Evan Turner to that list.  I can't think of any player in history that... cool.  How is it humanly possible to nail a buzzer-beating 29-footer that you barely released in time (.2 seconds before the buzzer, to be exact), staving off your school's top rival from pulling a huge upset, and all you do is keep your arm in the air, wrist cocked, and walk off the court?  Any other human being on the planet would've gone nuts.  Turner has a pure assassin's mentality.  Pick against him at your own risk.

-Worth noting: ESPN's current lineup on their online video section, ESPN 360: halftime of Kentucky/Alabama, or the women's MAC semifinal.  And this is while lots of people are still on their lunch break.  Inexcusable, Worldwide Leader.  Inexcusable.

-In case you haven't heard, the Milwaukee Bucks have caught fire, and are now in line for the 5-seed in the East.  Here's a summary of the teams ahead of them: Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta.  Behind them, and still in the playoff hunt?  Toronto, Chicago, Charlotte, Miami.  How in the hell did the sucktastic Bucks sneak into that group just a year after finishing 14 games below .500?  John Hammond deserves a ton of credit for turning this team around.  He's been hard at work undoing Larry Harris's mistakes, and it's finally showing.  This team is put together right.  Hammond has avoided the temptation to overpay for role players in a seller's market, put together a team instead of 12 players, and gotten the couple of lucky breaks that every contender needs.  Andrew Bogut has quietly transformed into a legit Alpha Dog who can take over games, Brandon Jennings is a poor man's Kobe to Bogut as the poor man's Shaq (both young guards who can take over occasional games, but are also smart enough to defer to the big man when it's not their night), Jerry Stackhouse has given the team an edge and a swagger that they needed, and Hammond should be going to jail for robbing the Bulls in the John Salmons trade.  Can you compete with a nucleus of Bogut-Jennings-Salmons, with the wildly underrated Luc Richard Mbah-a-Moute, Ersan Ilyasova, Stackhouse, and Luke Ridnour as role players?  Absolutely.  Now we just need a dedicated fan in Milwaukee to plant a bag of weed each in Michael Redd and Dan Gadzuric's cars.  Any volunteers?

-It's too early in the spring to really draw any conclusions.  But it's worth noting that as soon as I got done verbally shitting on Gregg Zaun in Monday's season preview, he has been 5 for 12 with two runs and five RBI.  As for the rest of our catchers?  Matt Treanor and George Kottaras, both presumed to be crappy, are each over .300 while Jon Lucroy and Angel Salome, one of whom is assumed to be the future of the position, are a combined 0-for-9.

-Tim Tebow's 22 on the Wonderlic made news for it's overall crappiness.  However, Hall of Fame quarterbacks Dan Marino and Jim Kelly both scored 15s on the same test, while notable bust Alex Smith scored a 40.  The lesson here, as always?  Shit like that doesn't really matter.  It's worth mentioning that sure-thing future bust Jimmy Clausen wasn't much better, scoring a 23--also below average.

The Eleven Teams That Will Make Up Your Bracket

Let's start off today's edition with some cold, hard facts:

FACT: This Sunday, the 2010 NCAA Tournament field will be announced.
FACT: Estimates place the amount of workplace productivity lost to the Tournament at $1.8 billion.
FACT: Over the past decade, I have personally lost at least a whole grade point total in productivity thanks to the Tournament.

I'm kind of a March junkie.  In high school, I ran my own pool--the old-fashioned way, mind you, hand-checking paper brackets for upwards of 50 people.  (What can I say, I'm a purist.)  I don't put that much effort into it anymore but suffice to say that the odds of me making it to class next week Thursday and Friday are comparable to Murray State's Sweet 16 odds.

In the meantime, I'll leave the conjecture to the people who get paid for it.  Today, we're going to talk about the eleven types of teams you see in the tournament year-in, year-out.

(Side note: my senior year of high school, I came up with a list of rules for picking your brackets.  This will be re-published later on, I promise.  And anyone wishing for me to fill their bracket out for them, shoot me an e-mail and we can talk about compensation.)

Tier 1: Thanks For Coming Out, Guys

-We're Just Happy To Be Here
Notable Characteristics: Small conference, rarely makes the tournament, probably sprung a few upsets in their conference tournament to get here, 14-16 seed, cameras, awed looks on faces.
How Their Tournament Will Go: They'll walk out on the court, see the powerhouse lined up to face them, shit themselves, and lose by 25.  But it's all good, because they're just happy to be there.
Historical Example: Chattanooga, 2009.  Swamped by UConn, 103-47.  Still licking their wounds a year later.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Winthrop.  A 19-13 team that will more than likely be a 16-seed, and probably match up against Kansas, Syracuse, or Kentucky.  Bring bodybags.

-Scrappy, but Overmatched
Notable Characteristics: Small-conference school, impressive record until you look at their opponents, swagger in warmups, unrivaled intensity, lots of white guys on the bench who like to jump up and down when good things happen.
How Their Tournament Will Go: They'll come out against a far superior foe, and hang with them by sheer effort.  It will be an inspiring performance.  Then the favorites will quit sleepwalking, realize that they are actually in a game, and wipe the floor with them.
Historical Example: Texas A&M Corpus Christi, 2007.  Fifteen seed, came out guns blazing against 2-seed Wisconsin, taking an 18-point lead early.  Still led by 8 at the half, a 57-36 second half sealed their fate as my entire high school classroom exhaled in relief while watching the game.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Murray State.  They've punched their ticket, the've got a 30-4 record... and their best non-conference win is Florida International.  Sportsline has them as a 13 seed, potentially facing Michigan State--who is decidedly better than Florida International.

Tier 2: Early Reports Of Their Demise Were Greatly Exaggerated

-The Rocky Balboas
Notable Characteristics: The line from the first Rocky movie applies here: "[They] don't know it's a show! [They] think it's a damn fight!"  These guys are similar to the Scrappy, But Overmatched teams in every way except one: when the sleeping giant awakens, these guys refuse to be swept aside.
How Their Tournament Will Go: They'll compete early, maybe even jump out to a lead on a team that is far superior on paper.  Then, the favorites will fight back.  Only the underdogs won't quit, and they'll land a few punches of their own.  All of a sudden; there's a minute and a half left, the 'dogs just nailed a HUGE three to make it a one-possession game, the favorites have to call timeout, and the entire country is rooting for them to pull it off.  Bonus points if Gus Johnson is in the booth for the game.
Historical Example: Fuck it, let's go with two of them for this one, if only because we can embed two awesome YouTube clips in doing so.
Example #1: Northwestern State, 2007.  A 14-seed who trailed most of the game, got enough lucky breaks to stay in it, then won it on one of the most awesome shots in tournament history.


Example #2: OH MY GOODNESS! SORRENTINE HIT THAT ONE FROM THE PARKING LOT!

Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Siena.  They've been through to the second round two years in a row.  They cause over 15 turnovers a game, and momentum is key in the tournament.  They're likely going to have a 12-14 seed, and their team is filled with tournament experience.  If my team draws them in the first round, I'm sweating.

-The One-Man Wrecking Crew
Notable Characteristics: They're 80% just like any other tournament also-ran... only they've got the best player on the floor.  Usually, he was either a late bloomer or injury-prone, causing the superior teams to pass on him.  The rest of their team can't do shit, but you can't really count them out either, because he can take over the game at any time.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: They'll go as far as their Alpha Dog can take them.  How far that is depends solely on said alpha dog's ability.
Historical Example: Davidson, 2008.  Two points shy of being a Final Four team, and nobody outside of friends and family members of the team team can name a player besides Stephen Curry.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Notre Dame.  If they get a draw with no teams around them who can handle Luke Harangody, they could do some real damage.

-The Sleeping Underachievers
Notable Characteristics: Echoes of pre-season hype that just didn't pan out, injuries, talent and lots of it, a mediocre record in a conference strong enough to pull them into the tourney.  The team that draws them is usually not to happy about it, since they always have more talent than a team with their seed rightfully should.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: Again, it's tough to tell.  If they are healthy in time for the tournament, and everyone plays like they give a crap, they can do some damage.  If they have five guys playing for themselves, or are still over-utilizing the 9-11th men in their rotation, they're likely one and done.
Historical Example: Gotta go way back for the best one, but Missouri in 2002 fits the bill perfectly.  Barely avoided being left on the bubble, then tore through their region before being denied the Final Four by conference foe Oklahoma in a close game.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Texas, the pre-season #3 who will likely be a 6-seed, or somewhere in that range.  Trust in Rick Barnes's ability to cripple talented teams, and be wary of a possible upset.

Tier 3: Good, But Not Really Serious Contenders

-Still A Year Or Two Away
Notable Characteristics: Freshmen playing key roles, highish seed, inconsistency, lots of potential both good and bad.  They play like a 2-seed when they are on, they play like a 13-seed when they aren't.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: More times than not, they will be bounced early.  Look out if they draw The Rocky Balboas, because these guys will make mistakes and let them hang around far longer than they should.
Historical Example: Notre Dame, 2007.  The aforementioned Harangody was a sophomore that year, and they didn't have a single contributing senior on the roster.  Six seed, and Winthrop handled them easily in the first round.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Kentucky.  Yes, Kentucky.
Before I continue, a few disclaimers:
*DISCLAIMER* Under no circumstances do I advise wagering against John Wall.  I'm not saying I'm taking Kentucky to go all the way, but if you actively want to place your money on the chances that Wall will fail, well, you have no right to complain when he rips your heart out.
*DISCLAIMER* It is entirely possible for a young team to make a deep tournament run.  Just ask Carmelo Anthony and Gerry MacNamara.
*DISCLAIMER* The following is only a hypothetical situation.
Okay.  Worst-case scenario for this team.  They will be a 1 seed, and they will probably face the play-in winner.  Let's say that Notre Dame is the 9-seed next to them.  Let's say that Kentucky rolls to a thirty-point win over Overmatched Play-In Winner Du Jour.  Let's say that Notre Dame gets a safe, confidence-boosting win.  Let's say that Harangody, Ben Hansbrough, and Tory Jackson--all senior starters with considerable tournament experience--come into the Kentucky game knowing that this will either be their finest hour or their last game ever.  And they hang in there.  Every put-back, every double-team followed by a kick-out for a three, every block, and the pressure on Kentucky snowballs.  Every minute that they can't put it away, they dwell more on the pressure and the expectations.
Maybe the Wildcats can pull that game out.  Again, I'm not picking against them.  But is it really that far-fetched for a senior team who has Been There Before to hold up better under the pressure?  The little stuff counts in March.

-The Overrated Mid-Major
Notable Characteristics: Big-time record, feel-good story, largely untested, high seed, probably an inordinate amount of white people wearing their uniforms (tying into the feel-good story: the media loves to play on subtle racist tendencies).
How Their Tournament Will Look: They might be gifted a cake win or two in the early rounds, but eventually they will run into their first, and last, real opponent of the season.
Historical Example: Drake, 2008.  A starting line-up of white guys who could shoot the lights out, several former walk-ons, and the media loved them.  Until they came out shooting ice-cold in the tournament and suffered a first-round upset.  The lesson here?  Relying on the three works well for underdogs (when you need to grab momentum to win), not so much for favorites (when you want to keep momentum from the underdogs).
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: New Mexico.  Cal and Texas A&M are decent wins, but do they make a 2-seed?  Nobody on their roster has tournament experience, and they have ran up their reputation largely on two long winning streaks against cupcake opponents.  Everything about them says "out in the first weekend."

-The Three-Point Bombers
Notable Characteristics: Guards, and lots of 'em.  Swing offense.  Speed and shooting, usually also very adept at running the fast break.
How Their Tournament Will Go: However far their shooting will take them.  But if they get cold, they don't stand a chance in hell.  If you pick them as an underdog, you're pumped.  If you pick them as a favorite, you're shitting yourself.
Historical Example: As the favorite who flopped, again the '08 Drake team.  As the underdog who got hot and went on a run, the 2000 Wisconsin team is a perfect example.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: The following teams shoot 40% or better from beyond the arc, and are projected as tournament teams (Sportsline-projected seed; percentage in parentheses): Cornell (13; 43.4); BYU (6; 42); Utah State (11; 42); St. Mary's (9; 41.2); Kansas (1; 40.4); Lehigh (16; 40.2); Marquette (9; 40).  Do with this list what you will.

-The Duke Blue Devils
Notable Characteristics: A lineup of McDonalds All-Americans, a coach who looks like a rat, Dick Vitale making excuses for them, a student section chock full of face-painted douchebags trying to get on TV.
How Their Tournament Will Go: Lots of hype, followed by an early exit and lots of excuses from Coach K.
Historical Example: 2007, when my Underdog Lock of the Year (VCU) won off of an Eric Maynor buzzer-beater in the first round.  Enjoy.

Also, enjoy this epic flop by Greg Paulus from the same game.

Possible Fit From This Year's Field: This year, they will likely be a 1-seed.  Just know that if you're going to pick one team to flame out early every year, Duke is your best bet.

Tier 4: Guys Who Will Still Be Playing Through Two Weekends

-The One-Man Wrecking Crew, With Supporting Class
Notable Characteristics: The awesomer big brother of The One-Man Wrecking Crew.  Only these guys have a supporting class who can step up and help out the Alpha Dog.  Plus, their higher seed means higher expectations.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: Likely Final Four run, if not more.  In March, it's key to have a player who can take over the game--you're usually not going to lose when that happens.
Historical Example: Ohio State, 2007.  You simply were not stopping Greg Oden that year.  And if you doubled him, you had to deal with Mike Conley Jr.  It's one thing to have a dominant player--it's a whole 'nother animal to have a supporting cast who can each make you pay if you overcompensate on him.  Like so.

Possible Fit In This Year's Field: Wesley Johnson and Syracuse, John Wall and Kentucky, Evan Turner and Ohio State, Scottie Reynolds and Villanova.  Every one of these guys fits the bill, and their team will be a top-three seed.

-The Total Package
Notable Characteristics: A team built to win the title.  They don't have any one star who stands out, but they have two or three guys who could step up on any given night, a cast of quality role players to support them, a competent coach, and a difference-making student section.  They've rolled over folks all season, and fully expect to run deep into the tournament.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: Ideally, a Final Four run; at the very least they'll be in the Elite Eight.  Anything less constitutes a catastrophe.
Historical Example: North Carolina in 2005.  Any time your 6th man goes second overall in the draft, you've got a stacked team.  Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashard McCants, Marvin Williams: how do you possibly match up with that?
Possible Fit In This Year's Field: Kansas.  They run a deep rotation, they can shoot the lights out, they get contributions from everyone, they shoot 70% from the line as a team, and average 18 assists per game.  All without one superstar to take over.

Sampling the '10 Brew

Baseball is my sport.  Always has been.  Hell, look at the damn URL of the page you're on right now.  If that doesn't convince you of this truth, nothing will.  Either that, or some twat waffle decided to plagiarize me, and just got outed for it.

But at any rate, I played the game from the time I was old enough to stand up until I was too old to still be in high school.  From the time I got off all fours, my dad had me getting accustomed to a tee-ball bat.  And now, as an adult, I still love the game.

That being said, it's been a hard ride.  If I grew up in Florida, or Boston, or Atlanta, or even Arizona, I would have happy childhood memories involving baseball.  Instead?  I grew up in Milwaukee, futilely supporting a Brewer team whose main consistent quality was suckitude.  I mean, for Chrissakes, Rafael Roque once was our opening-day starter.  Before Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds existed, Jose Hernandez was the King of the K--only without offering the 40-home run power that Dunn and Reynolds do.  And that's not even touching on the Gary Sheffield trade, the Antoine Williamson draft, the Bob Hamelin and Jeffrey Hammonds signings, or anything dealing with Curtis Leskanic.

(At this point, I'm going to pause the column for a second so that Brewer fans can stop twitching angrily.  Calmer down there, buddy.  It'll be alright.)

The fact of the matter is, my baseball childhood was one of shame and failure.  Every fall, I would pick a real team to follow for the post-season, since the Brewers were pretty much shutting it down by the second week of August.

Then, all of a sudden, things changed.  In 2008, we found ourselves in the thick of a pennant race.  And though we would come in second in the division to the Cubs, I got my first taste of the post-season in my life.  Hell, we even managed to win a game.

If this was a movie, that would be a turning point.  The team would keep improving until they reached the top, and my two decades of blind faith would be rewarded.  Right?

Real life doesn't work that way.   Ben Sheets shut down for a year and, when he came back, we didn't even make a half-assed effort to bring him back.  C.C. Sabathia, the most picture-perfect fit for Milwaukee ever, was bought by the Stankees.  To replace them, we relied on our minor leagues--though our best pitching prospects were all in the mid-level minors, and the stiffs we were relying on (see Burns, Mike) were incompetent.  Instead of making another playoff push, we regressed back to "alright .500 team."  And the front office is seemingly happy with this, based on their off-season moves.  Some highlights:

-Trading JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez.  An awful move that I've already discussed.  Let's not be redundantly redundant.

-Signing Randy Wolf and Doug Davis.  I like the Davis signing--he rejuvinated his career in Milwaukee once already and he has historically pitched really well in Miller Park.  Wolf, on the other hand, is an overpaid innings-eater, who benefitted from a historically weak free-agency class to sucker the Crew into a Gawd-awful contract.  He's the left-handed Jeff Suppan.  And we're already unhappy with one Suppan.

-Signing LaTroy Hawkins.  Was Doug Melvin watching when he pitched for the Cubs?  You'd be hard-pressed to find a shakier relief pitcher in all of baseball, now that the aforementioned Leskanic has retired.

-Signing Gregg Zaun.  Don't get me wrong, I'm hardly a Jason Kendall fan.  He was overpaid and overrated.  But without question, Zaun is a downgrade.  He's a career backup who has survived as a good glove, no hit player at a position where your backup can be good glove, no hit.   But he's going to be our starter.  Backup George Kottaras, claimed off waivers from Boston, isn't any better.  And Angel Salome and Jon Lucroy are both at least a year away.

Is this year's team any better than the .500-finishers of a year ago?  I don't see it.  I'm a fan of the "let's take a flyer on a guy who someone else gave up on" strategy that the team has succeeded with in the past--just look at Davis, Danny Kolb, Derrick Turnbow (at least for a little while), and Gabe Kapler.  But you want those guys to be no-risk pickups, where if they don't work out you aren't hurt.  If Zaun doesn't have a career year, we're in trouble.  If Gomez flops (a realistic possibility, considering his failure to this point to assemble even a .300 OBP), we gave away our best trading chip for nothing.  If Wolf and Davis aren't reliable #2 and 3 starters, respectively, our staff is just as shitty as it was a year ago.

Optimistic Prediction: 90 wins and the Wild Card.  For this to happen, we're talking about Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun both having MVP-caliber seasons, Davis and Wolf both being 12-win, sub 3.75 ERA guys, Gomez figuring out how to take a pitch or two, and either Salome or Lucroy breaking out early.

Pessimistic Prediction: 70 wins, fourth place (behind St. Louis, Chicago, and Houston).  We're not dipping below the Reds or Pirates, at least.

Realistic Prediction: 80-84, third place (behind St. Louis and Chicago).  Mark it down, and join me in taking a shot to another year of mediocrity.