March Manifesto 2.0

Three years ago, when I was a senior in high school, I wrote a monthly column for my school newspaper.  If you're a die-hard reader, this isn't news to you--I critiqued one of my old columns a few months back.  If you are a new reader, it might surprise you to learn that I actually have experience with this whole "writing" thing.  I assure you I do, way more than you know.


March Madness has always been a passion of mine.  Again, this shouldn't need explaining.  I've scheduled out six posts in three days because of it, if you look above.  Normal weeks consist of one posting, maybe.  Am I throwing down the gauntlet this week?  You betcha.


Back to me, three years ago.  For my March column, I chose to act as the Dr. Phil of Bracketology, dispensing life advice on how to fill in yours, year after year.  Three years later, some things hold up and some need tweaking.  So we'll roll out Version 2.0.

Ladies and gentlemen, the wait is over. March Madness is upon us. In all honesty, the NCAA Basketball Tournament is the single most exciting sporting event one can see. The Super Bowl? Please—it’s usually all hype and a disappointing game. World Cup? They only play one game at a time—and on top of that, it’s only every four years! There is one thing that brings sadness to most people in the month of March, though. No, I’m not talking about the inevitable Alfonso Soriano ACL tear—that only brings sadness to Cubs fans. I’m talking about the annual NCAA Tournament pool. Every year, 90 percent of Americans get their brackets absolutely shredded. If you are reading this, you are probably one of them. And so I would like to offer you, the reader, this handy guide to filling out your brackets. (As always, this guide is for entertainment purposes only. If you follow these tips and lose money, it’s your fault—not mine. Way to screw it up, buddy.)

1. In it to win it
Pools are usually designed with the winner getting a staggering majority of the prize money. Or, you know, they would be if gambling were legal. The difference between first and second place in a NCAA pool is usually very disproportionate. And yet every year, I see dozens of people picking all favorites (these people also tend to drive five below the speed limit, will never enter the crosswalk if there is a chance they will have to run to beat the car, and always stand on 16 when playing blackjack). Don’t be afraid to take a chance. Just remember Ricky Bobby’s mantra: If you’re not first, you’re last. Follow this rule to a point but, as always, don’t be stupid. A #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed. Don’t pencil the 16 into the Elite Eight just because you like their mascot. You’re smarter than that--at least, you should be.

2. Look for a team that does one thing, and does it well
These are the guys that go further than expected, because it’s hard to beat someone when they make you play their game. Whether it is shooting the three-ball (Kansas, 2008), dominating inside (Ohio State, 2007), outlasting the rest of the mediocre field (Florida, 2006), or a team that is head and shoulders above the rest of the field (North Carolina, 2005 or Florida, 2007—the former sent six players to the next year’s draft lottery; the latter returned 5 starters from a national champion), the team that wins it is the team that has its signature, and can play their game better than anyone else out there. So when you see that Kansas is in the top 5 in the nation for three-point shooting percentage, or that Wisconsin combines the best turnover rate in the nation with a top-15 free-throw percentage, you should sit up and take note.

3. Pick your upsets wisely
You need to look deeper than the seeds for this one.  Three years ago, I stressed the importance of defense and three-point shooting.  Momentum is key in the tournament, and the teams who can catch fire from downtown and force turnovers can steal momentum and, ultimately, the game.  Clearly, these are still very important, but there are a few other things to look for that didn’t make it into Version 1.0.

-A definitive Alpha Dog.  If the game comes down to one shot, it has to be crystal clear whose job it is to carry the team.  Think TJ Sorrentine for Vermont five years ago burying a Fuck-You-Three from the parking lot.
-Age and experience.  Teams with a glut of seniors are a plus, as are teams with players who have tournament experience.  By the way, Siena has won a tournament game two years in a row now, and they are lurking as a 13-seed in the weak South region.  Just sayin’.

Picking every 12-seed just on the basis of being a 12-seed isn’t a smart strategy.  Conversely, picking every favorite to win is no fun, and not going to win you anything.  Find the matchups you can exploit, and for chrissakes exploit them!

4. Ignore the majority
My secret solution for picking the games that I have no idea how to pick. All you do is look at who the majority likes better, and go the other way. There is a reason that sports bookies drive brand-new Maseratis with platinum rims, and it is not because the general public knows anything about picking sporting events. As George Carlin once said, “Think about how stupid the Average American is. Well, HALF of ‘em are stupider than THAT!” So when you see that over 50% of Yahoo users have a Kansas-Kentucky championship game… well, you get the picture. And, as a last resort, if the general public seems too split for you to be confident, simply ask the worst gambler you know who they are taking, and go the other way. Works every time.

5. Help for Homers (and I don’t mean Simpson)
Realize this: a school from your state will largely be picked to go a hell of a lot further than they will elsewhere around the country. Regardless of what you think of any of them as a team, see Rule #1—if everyone else picks the same champion as you, fifth place and “Thanks for trying, but no money for you” is your destiny. Fight the temptation to ride the home team further than you should—I always ask myself when picking games involving Wisconsin, Marquette, or UWM: if my life depended on this pick, would I still make it this way? If I hesitate, that means it’s time to side with the bad guys.

Conversely, you need to do the same thing when you get an urge to pick against a team you absolutely hate. Remember: the goal is to win, not to be as self-righteous as possible. But, by all means, feel free to throw a party when Duke eventually loses. Isn’t that the best part of March?

And remember, above all: Gambling is a serious problem. Many people have lost it all, even on a so-called “sure thing.” Be responsible this March, and don’t do anything Jesus wouldn’t do. There, I said it. Now put the gun away and step away from my girlfriend, officer.