March Madness 2010: Midwest Regional Preview

So here's Part 2 of our six-part NCAA Tournament preview.  If you missed the March Manifesto 2.0, feel free to go check that out at some point.  But whereas that dealt with a skeleton strategy that is refined and applied every year, now we're delving into what you really want: the cheat sheets for This Year Right Now.

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Disclaimer Number Two: Over 90% of my readership comes from the United States, and I need to emphasize that gambling is illegal in most of that particular country.  You see that, Government Agent Who Is "Randomly" Monitoring My Computer Thanks To The Patriot Act?  I'm being good.  Now please let my family go?

First Round
-1. Kansas over 16. Lehigh
This one doesn't even deserve a write-up.
-9. Northern Iowa over 8. UNLV
I like UNI.  They went 18-3 in a tough mid-major conference, outscore their opponents by 9 points per game, and top 75% from the line as a team.  They don't have the star power to beat any big-time teams, but I like them over UNLV for sure.
-5. Michigan State over 12. New Mexico State
Look elsewhere for your 5-12 upset than a mid-major with 11 losses going against a Tom Izzo squad.  Say what you will about his inability to beat Wisconsin, Izzo always has his team prepared for March.
-4. Maryland over 13. Houston
March basketball  can easily turn into a one-man show.  And in this case, Grievous Vasquez is far and away the best player on the court, bar none.  Expect him to take over.
-6. Tennessee over 11. San Diego State
The Aztecs came close to stunning Indiana during the 2006 tournament.  It's not gonna happen this time around.
-3. Georgetown over 14. Ohio
Don't be a hero, Billy.  This one's not gonna happen.
-10. Georgia Tech over 7. Oklahoma State
Don't be fooled by Tech's record--playing in the same conference with Duke, Maryland, and Clemson hurt them.  The Okies won't be able to handle Gani Lawal and Derrick Shumpert down low, both of them average at least 12.5 points and 8 rebounds per game.
-2. Ohio State over 15. Cal-Santa Barbara
I'll say it once: forcing Kansas and Ohio State to go through each other on the road to the Final Four while Duke gets it's path plowed clean is a fucking travesty.  This was my championship pick, until the committee went and screwed the pooch.

Second Round
-1. Kansas over 9. Northern Iowa
UNI has a great little team, and against a lesser upset candidate I'd go for it.  But not here.
-4. Maryland over 5. Michigan State
A fantastic matchup, this one should be happening a round later.  I think this one goes down to the wire, which is where the Alpha Dog Corollary comes into play.  With Maryland, you know that Vasquez is the guy to take the big shot.  With Michigan State, well, that's the thing: it might be Kalin Lucas, it might be Raymar Morgan, or Draymond Green or Durrell Summers.  When the game is on the line with seconds to go, there should be no doubt who the play is being designed for, and he should have no doubt that he is getting the ball in the hoop somehow.
-6. Tennessee over 3. Georgetown
I'm not impressed enough with Georgetown's body of work to see them as worthy of a 3-seed.  Making it to the Big East final was good, but is it worth enough to offset their 10-8 conference record prior to that?  I say no, and I say they are Overseeded Team #1 who isn't making it out of the first weekend.
-2. Ohio State over 10. Georgia Tech
Not a chance in hell Evan Turner lets Ohio State go home on the first weekend.

Sweet Sixteen
-1. Kansas over 4. Maryland
I feel so boring not picking any upsets in this round.  But let's be realistic--if your life is on the line, and you have to pick these games, is there any chance you're going against Kansas or Ohio State?  I say no.
-2. Ohio State over 6. Tennessee
Again, don't get cute.  You're going to pick against the best player in the nation, someone who can take over a game at any point and carry his team, you better have a damn good reason to do so.

Elite Eight
-1. Kansas over 2. Ohio State
And in terms of "damn good reasons," you've gotta put "I'm picking the better team over the better player" as one of the best.  Turner is a monster, but Kansas' entire team is great.  Whoever wins this one will take the title, and I just don't see Kansas being beatable this year.