March Madness 2010: West Region Preview

So, the Midwest is down.  For the first part of today, we move to one of the bottom regions--for the sake of this tournament, I'm considering the Midwest and East the "top" regions, and the West and South the "bottom" regions.  Why?  Because the MW and E are stacked, and the W and S are both fairly sketchy.  As we will soon see.

Okay, enough with the rambling.  On to the picks.

First Round
-1. Syracuse over 16. Vermont
Though I would loooove to see Vermont win this one, if only for the decades of shit-talking to 'Cuse fans that it would win them.  12-over-5 upset in 2005?  Awesome.  16-over-1 upset in 2010?  Compoundedly super-awesome.  Honestly, who outside the state of New York wouldn't love to see that?
(Regardless of how it ends, I'm excited to see how this game works out between the fans.  Has a 16-seed ever had ammo to talk shit to a 1-seed before this?  These are the kinds of questions PTI and the like should be asking.)
-9. Florida State over 8. Gonzaga
67% of Yahoo users are taking Gonzaga.  That kind of disparity in an 8-9 matchup?  The Gambling Gods cannot be happy.  Remember, there is a reason that bookies are filthy stinking rich.
(Also, my girlfriend is taking Gonzaga--or, as she calls them, "Godzilla"--to the Final Four.  Odds of this backfiring, them going out in the first round, and me giving her shit for this until next March?  Looking like a good bet.)
-5. Butler over 12. UTEP
Remember back in 2007, when a glut of people picked Long Beach State over Tennessee because LBSU was a 12-seed and had Snoop Dogg connections?  And how LBSU lost by 40 points?  Also, remember in that same year how Butler was another trendy pick to get upset in a 12-5 matchup, then made it to the second weekend?  The lesson here?  Choose your upsets wisely.  And this is not a wise choice.
-13. Murray State over 4. Vanderbilt
Billy Kennedy is an experienced tournament coach, and the Racers' top 6 scorers are separated by only 1.1 points per game.  On top of that, Vanderbilt lost a 4-13 matchup to Siena in 2008.  Most of the Commodore players were on that team, and you know it will be in the back of their heads if they can't put it away early.  And while Murray State may not be capable of blowing people out of the building they are a balanced, steady team that can keep it close and capitalize on a few mental errors by rattled players down the stretch.
(By the way, every Vanderbilt upperclassman who was there for the '08 game against Siena will spend the rest of the time until the game is over PRAYING that this doesn't happen.  And if it does? Well, there's no rioting like drunken, angry college sports nut rioting!)
-11. Minnesota over 6. Xavier
While you have to watch out for the "mid-level team that played into a big-time seed" conference tournament success, riding the "we've already pulled off a Cinderella story in our conference tourney to get here" team is encouraged.  As they always say, the most dangerous man in a fight is the man with nothing to lose.  Minnesota's season should be over--at this point, everything is gravy.  So we've got a 40% three-point shooting crew playing with nothing to lose and a spring in their step from knocking off Michigan State and Purdue.  Xavier, after that?  Should be cake.
-3. Pittsburgh over 14. Oakland
You know how every year, there's a 3-14 game that ends up being ridiculously entertaining and, if you're lucky, ends with Northwestern State pulling the upset?  This is not going to be that game.  Textbook "We're Just Happy To Be Here" team.
-7. BYU over 10. Florida
You might remember BYU as a textbook example of a Three-Point Bomber candidate.  You also might remember Florida as a team that was supposedly on the bubble, and is incredibly lucky to have scored as high as a 10-seed?  Bring bodybags for this one.
-2. Kansas State over 15. North Texas
Just imagine where this team would be if they still had Michael Beasley.

Second Round
-1. Syracuse over 9. Florida State
Yeah... this isn't exactly Georgetown trying to pull the huge-underdog upset of a 1-seeded Syracuse.  Haul over the bodybags from the Florida game.
-5. Butler over 13. Murray State
You've gotta respect Butler--they've always at least held up their seed in the tournament, if not exceeded it.  They're not the type of team to let Murray State beat them.
3. Pittsburgh over 11. Minnesota
Tubby Smith's reclamation project isn't quite that far along yet.  They'll be in the Sweet 16 sooner, rather than later.  This is not the year, though.
7. BYU over 2. Kansas State
When the Stormin' Mormons are on, they can shoot the lights out.  And coming off the blowout win I'm calling over Florida, they're gonna have a little bit of swagger.  I can easily see them catching fire.  Kansas State's perimeter defense was exposed by Kansas three times this season.  BYU isn't Kansas-good, but this is a terrible matchup for K-State.

Sweet Sixteen
1. Syracuse over 5. Butler
One thing that was noted repeatedly after the third round of the Big East tournament was that, with the teams and coaches as familiar with each other as they are, most underdogs always have a shot.  Outside of that kind of environment?  There are teams that might be able to beat Syracuse--just that Butler is not one of them.
3. Pitt over 7. BYU
Pitt was able to handily beat Marquette, a similar-style team to BYU who is seeded higher.  Pitt's D will hassle the BYU shooters, Ashton Gibbs will take over, and we'll be looking at an end to the Cinderella dreams of BYU.

Elite Eight
3. Pitt over 1. Syracuse
Again, I love 'Cuse against non-Big East coaches who aren't familiar with them.  But against Pitt, who already beat them once this year, it's a lot tougher to call.  I'm gonna say Jamie Dixon goes from Sweet Sixteen to Elite Eight to Final Four in consecutive years.