March Madness 2010: East Region Preview

Time for Good Region Number Two!  We've got John Wall, the Big East champions, the Pac-10 champions (though as an 11-seed), a Wisconsin team that knocked off Purdue and came ohsoclose to upsetting Ohio State, two of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation (Marquette and Cornell), a Missouri team that knocked off Kansas State, and the ex-number-one-ranked-team-in-the-nation, Texas, as an 8-seed.  I mean, holy shit--read that back again.  That's just a brutal region.  And if Kentucky can pull off a Final Four run, it could possibly stand as the most brutal ever faced by a 1-seed.  Formerly top-ranked Texas in the second round, a giant-hunting Wisconsin team that matches up disturbingly well with the 'Cats in the Sweet Sixteen, then the champions of the best conference in the entire NCAA in the Elite Eight.  Think of it like a car trying to jump over a gap in a bridge.  If you make it, it's awesome and nobody who witnessed it ever forgets.  But that's a pretty big if.

Anyways, enough foreplay.  On to the picks.

First Round
-1. Kentucky over 16. East Tennessee State
The Selection Committee's statement regarding the controversy over their historically tough road to the Final Four?  "Hey, at least we didn't give them Georgetown as a 16-seed in the first round!"
-8. Texas over 9. Wake Forest
Always beware the mega-talented, underperforming teams come March.  You never know what might spark them to be who people thought they were.
-12. Cornell over 5. Temple
Okay, you want a 12-5 upset, buddy?  Try a 40% three-point shooting team with tournament experience (two straight years, at that) going against a shaky mid-major at-large bid with losses to St. Johns and Charlotte.  This is the one to watch.  Teams like Temple with a "12" in front of their name always seem to get just enough lucky bounces.
-4. Wisconsin over 13. Wofford
Wofford has already lost to two Big Ten teams seeded lower than the Badgers.
-6. Marquette over 11. Washington
The Pac-10 champion is only an 11-seed.  And they only have two teams in the tournament!  The Atlantic 10 and WAC have both surpassed the Pac-10 in both categories.  I hate the East Coast bias as much as anyone, but you've gotta put a competitive product out, guys.
-3. New Mexico over 14. Montana
Meh.  Doubt too many people will be flipped to this game.
-10. Missouri over 7. Clemson
Clemson doesn't impress me.  Missouri beating Kansas State does.  And the Big 12's depth this year is impressive.
-2. West Virginia over 15. Morgan State
Another textbook Happy To Be Here team.  Enjoy the experience.

Second Round
-1. Kentucky over 8. Texas
If there was ever an 8-over-1 upset to pick, this is the one.  Unproven Kentucky team still in their first tournament weekend (first one ever for 4 of their starting 5), Texas team that was ranked #1 and started off 17-0.  Problem is, Texas is 7-9 since then.  Here lies the greatest long-term collapse not to involve the New York Mets or Bucky Dent in sports history.
-4. Wisconsin over 12. Cornell
Wisconsin suffocates Cornell's shooters on the defensive end, cleans up the boards, gets to the line and manages to score while putting Cornell in foul trouble... (nodding).  Sounds incredibly possible.
-6. Marquette over 3. New Mexico
Best wins for New Mexico: Cal (8 seed) and BYU (7) twice.  Making Marquette arguably the toughest team they have faced all year.  New Mexico is the poster child for the "top seeds have never been weaker" argument that's being made this year.  Never has a 3-seed played so many creampuffs.
-2. West Virginia over 10. Missouri
You're not going to see two 2-seeds go down on opening weekend.

Sweet Sixteen
-4. Wisconsin over 1. Kentucky
Oh, yes.  You better believe I went there.  Now, before you call the paramedics to take me off to the loony bin (two Facebook friends have already declared that I must be drunk to make this pick), hear me out.  Believe me, after a middle-school mistake in which I took 5-seeded Wisconsin as a Final Four team and watched them drop in the first round, I've taken the noble cause of fighting homerism seriously.  I wouldn't make this pick if I wasn't extremely confident in it, and I am.  Here's why:
1. Kentucky is starting four freshmen and, of their close games this year, only Vanderbilt could be considered a good team.  Other than that, their wins by 5 or less include Miami of Ohio, North Carolina, UConn, Auburn, and Miss St.  Put them in a close game against a semi-decent team (as in "nobody in the above list") and suddenly rookie mistakes--like John Wall short-arming a potential game-winner from the corner--will be huge, and maybe Cousins isn't able to outmuscle the entire defense for the put-back...
2. Wisconsin takes care of the basketball (only 8.9 turnovers per game... best in the NCAA), makes their free-throws (73.5%... top 20 in the NCAA) and grinds the tempo of the game down to a crawl.  It's an ugly game to watch, but they aren't going to get blown out of the arena by anybody.  Hell, they shot under 20% in the first half against Illinois and still had it at 10 points--you don't pull that off unless you really milk your possessions.
3. Kentucky wins by blowing teams out, and Wisconsin isn't a team that can be blown out.  Meaning that the Badgers might not jump out to a lead, but they won't go away.  They'll come roaring back, and keep it close, and keep the seeds of doubt in the Wildcat players' minds.  Why won't these guys go away?!  Then, the doubt turns to rattled-freshman panic.  And mistakes.  And Wisconsin capitalizes on mistakes.
I do think the bracket this year is laughably unfair.  Kentucky has to run the table against Texas (pre-season top 3 team), Wisconsin (top-15 team that is a match-up nightmare for UK's style of play) and West Virginia (tournament winners in the nation's toughest conference).  Kansas (the best 1 seed) and Ohio State (the best 2 seed) are in the same bracket.  Meanwhile, Duke gets their region as gift-wrapped as possible without drawing St. Mary's School For The Blind in the sweet 16.  It fucking sucks.  But that's reality.  And the reality is spelled out plain as day above.  If it makes you feel better, Kentucky fans, this might cause one or two of your freshman phenoms to stick around in school another year.
2. West Virginia over 6. Marquette
The state of Wisconsin already used up all of it's goodwill with the March Madness Gods in the above matchup.  No chance in hell the March Madness Gods will ever allow a Marquette-Wisconsin matchup with that much on the line.

Elite Eight
2. West Virginia over 4. Wisconsin
Do I love Wisconsin as the "perfect storm" matchup to topple Kentucky?  You bet your ass I do.  Do I love them so much against the Big East champions, a team who has won in every way imaginable in the NCAA tournament and won't give the Badgers error-prone invitaitons to take the game late?  Not really.  And especially not in such a potential Letdown Game.