The Eleven Teams That Will Make Up Your Bracket

Let's start off today's edition with some cold, hard facts:

FACT: This Sunday, the 2010 NCAA Tournament field will be announced.
FACT: Estimates place the amount of workplace productivity lost to the Tournament at $1.8 billion.
FACT: Over the past decade, I have personally lost at least a whole grade point total in productivity thanks to the Tournament.

I'm kind of a March junkie.  In high school, I ran my own pool--the old-fashioned way, mind you, hand-checking paper brackets for upwards of 50 people.  (What can I say, I'm a purist.)  I don't put that much effort into it anymore but suffice to say that the odds of me making it to class next week Thursday and Friday are comparable to Murray State's Sweet 16 odds.

In the meantime, I'll leave the conjecture to the people who get paid for it.  Today, we're going to talk about the eleven types of teams you see in the tournament year-in, year-out.

(Side note: my senior year of high school, I came up with a list of rules for picking your brackets.  This will be re-published later on, I promise.  And anyone wishing for me to fill their bracket out for them, shoot me an e-mail and we can talk about compensation.)

Tier 1: Thanks For Coming Out, Guys

-We're Just Happy To Be Here
Notable Characteristics: Small conference, rarely makes the tournament, probably sprung a few upsets in their conference tournament to get here, 14-16 seed, cameras, awed looks on faces.
How Their Tournament Will Go: They'll walk out on the court, see the powerhouse lined up to face them, shit themselves, and lose by 25.  But it's all good, because they're just happy to be there.
Historical Example: Chattanooga, 2009.  Swamped by UConn, 103-47.  Still licking their wounds a year later.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Winthrop.  A 19-13 team that will more than likely be a 16-seed, and probably match up against Kansas, Syracuse, or Kentucky.  Bring bodybags.

-Scrappy, but Overmatched
Notable Characteristics: Small-conference school, impressive record until you look at their opponents, swagger in warmups, unrivaled intensity, lots of white guys on the bench who like to jump up and down when good things happen.
How Their Tournament Will Go: They'll come out against a far superior foe, and hang with them by sheer effort.  It will be an inspiring performance.  Then the favorites will quit sleepwalking, realize that they are actually in a game, and wipe the floor with them.
Historical Example: Texas A&M Corpus Christi, 2007.  Fifteen seed, came out guns blazing against 2-seed Wisconsin, taking an 18-point lead early.  Still led by 8 at the half, a 57-36 second half sealed their fate as my entire high school classroom exhaled in relief while watching the game.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Murray State.  They've punched their ticket, the've got a 30-4 record... and their best non-conference win is Florida International.  Sportsline has them as a 13 seed, potentially facing Michigan State--who is decidedly better than Florida International.

Tier 2: Early Reports Of Their Demise Were Greatly Exaggerated

-The Rocky Balboas
Notable Characteristics: The line from the first Rocky movie applies here: "[They] don't know it's a show! [They] think it's a damn fight!"  These guys are similar to the Scrappy, But Overmatched teams in every way except one: when the sleeping giant awakens, these guys refuse to be swept aside.
How Their Tournament Will Go: They'll compete early, maybe even jump out to a lead on a team that is far superior on paper.  Then, the favorites will fight back.  Only the underdogs won't quit, and they'll land a few punches of their own.  All of a sudden; there's a minute and a half left, the 'dogs just nailed a HUGE three to make it a one-possession game, the favorites have to call timeout, and the entire country is rooting for them to pull it off.  Bonus points if Gus Johnson is in the booth for the game.
Historical Example: Fuck it, let's go with two of them for this one, if only because we can embed two awesome YouTube clips in doing so.
Example #1: Northwestern State, 2007.  A 14-seed who trailed most of the game, got enough lucky breaks to stay in it, then won it on one of the most awesome shots in tournament history.


Example #2: OH MY GOODNESS! SORRENTINE HIT THAT ONE FROM THE PARKING LOT!

Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Siena.  They've been through to the second round two years in a row.  They cause over 15 turnovers a game, and momentum is key in the tournament.  They're likely going to have a 12-14 seed, and their team is filled with tournament experience.  If my team draws them in the first round, I'm sweating.

-The One-Man Wrecking Crew
Notable Characteristics: They're 80% just like any other tournament also-ran... only they've got the best player on the floor.  Usually, he was either a late bloomer or injury-prone, causing the superior teams to pass on him.  The rest of their team can't do shit, but you can't really count them out either, because he can take over the game at any time.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: They'll go as far as their Alpha Dog can take them.  How far that is depends solely on said alpha dog's ability.
Historical Example: Davidson, 2008.  Two points shy of being a Final Four team, and nobody outside of friends and family members of the team team can name a player besides Stephen Curry.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Notre Dame.  If they get a draw with no teams around them who can handle Luke Harangody, they could do some real damage.

-The Sleeping Underachievers
Notable Characteristics: Echoes of pre-season hype that just didn't pan out, injuries, talent and lots of it, a mediocre record in a conference strong enough to pull them into the tourney.  The team that draws them is usually not to happy about it, since they always have more talent than a team with their seed rightfully should.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: Again, it's tough to tell.  If they are healthy in time for the tournament, and everyone plays like they give a crap, they can do some damage.  If they have five guys playing for themselves, or are still over-utilizing the 9-11th men in their rotation, they're likely one and done.
Historical Example: Gotta go way back for the best one, but Missouri in 2002 fits the bill perfectly.  Barely avoided being left on the bubble, then tore through their region before being denied the Final Four by conference foe Oklahoma in a close game.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Texas, the pre-season #3 who will likely be a 6-seed, or somewhere in that range.  Trust in Rick Barnes's ability to cripple talented teams, and be wary of a possible upset.

Tier 3: Good, But Not Really Serious Contenders

-Still A Year Or Two Away
Notable Characteristics: Freshmen playing key roles, highish seed, inconsistency, lots of potential both good and bad.  They play like a 2-seed when they are on, they play like a 13-seed when they aren't.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: More times than not, they will be bounced early.  Look out if they draw The Rocky Balboas, because these guys will make mistakes and let them hang around far longer than they should.
Historical Example: Notre Dame, 2007.  The aforementioned Harangody was a sophomore that year, and they didn't have a single contributing senior on the roster.  Six seed, and Winthrop handled them easily in the first round.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: Kentucky.  Yes, Kentucky.
Before I continue, a few disclaimers:
*DISCLAIMER* Under no circumstances do I advise wagering against John Wall.  I'm not saying I'm taking Kentucky to go all the way, but if you actively want to place your money on the chances that Wall will fail, well, you have no right to complain when he rips your heart out.
*DISCLAIMER* It is entirely possible for a young team to make a deep tournament run.  Just ask Carmelo Anthony and Gerry MacNamara.
*DISCLAIMER* The following is only a hypothetical situation.
Okay.  Worst-case scenario for this team.  They will be a 1 seed, and they will probably face the play-in winner.  Let's say that Notre Dame is the 9-seed next to them.  Let's say that Kentucky rolls to a thirty-point win over Overmatched Play-In Winner Du Jour.  Let's say that Notre Dame gets a safe, confidence-boosting win.  Let's say that Harangody, Ben Hansbrough, and Tory Jackson--all senior starters with considerable tournament experience--come into the Kentucky game knowing that this will either be their finest hour or their last game ever.  And they hang in there.  Every put-back, every double-team followed by a kick-out for a three, every block, and the pressure on Kentucky snowballs.  Every minute that they can't put it away, they dwell more on the pressure and the expectations.
Maybe the Wildcats can pull that game out.  Again, I'm not picking against them.  But is it really that far-fetched for a senior team who has Been There Before to hold up better under the pressure?  The little stuff counts in March.

-The Overrated Mid-Major
Notable Characteristics: Big-time record, feel-good story, largely untested, high seed, probably an inordinate amount of white people wearing their uniforms (tying into the feel-good story: the media loves to play on subtle racist tendencies).
How Their Tournament Will Look: They might be gifted a cake win or two in the early rounds, but eventually they will run into their first, and last, real opponent of the season.
Historical Example: Drake, 2008.  A starting line-up of white guys who could shoot the lights out, several former walk-ons, and the media loved them.  Until they came out shooting ice-cold in the tournament and suffered a first-round upset.  The lesson here?  Relying on the three works well for underdogs (when you need to grab momentum to win), not so much for favorites (when you want to keep momentum from the underdogs).
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: New Mexico.  Cal and Texas A&M are decent wins, but do they make a 2-seed?  Nobody on their roster has tournament experience, and they have ran up their reputation largely on two long winning streaks against cupcake opponents.  Everything about them says "out in the first weekend."

-The Three-Point Bombers
Notable Characteristics: Guards, and lots of 'em.  Swing offense.  Speed and shooting, usually also very adept at running the fast break.
How Their Tournament Will Go: However far their shooting will take them.  But if they get cold, they don't stand a chance in hell.  If you pick them as an underdog, you're pumped.  If you pick them as a favorite, you're shitting yourself.
Historical Example: As the favorite who flopped, again the '08 Drake team.  As the underdog who got hot and went on a run, the 2000 Wisconsin team is a perfect example.
Possible Fit From This Year's Field: The following teams shoot 40% or better from beyond the arc, and are projected as tournament teams (Sportsline-projected seed; percentage in parentheses): Cornell (13; 43.4); BYU (6; 42); Utah State (11; 42); St. Mary's (9; 41.2); Kansas (1; 40.4); Lehigh (16; 40.2); Marquette (9; 40).  Do with this list what you will.

-The Duke Blue Devils
Notable Characteristics: A lineup of McDonalds All-Americans, a coach who looks like a rat, Dick Vitale making excuses for them, a student section chock full of face-painted douchebags trying to get on TV.
How Their Tournament Will Go: Lots of hype, followed by an early exit and lots of excuses from Coach K.
Historical Example: 2007, when my Underdog Lock of the Year (VCU) won off of an Eric Maynor buzzer-beater in the first round.  Enjoy.

Also, enjoy this epic flop by Greg Paulus from the same game.

Possible Fit From This Year's Field: This year, they will likely be a 1-seed.  Just know that if you're going to pick one team to flame out early every year, Duke is your best bet.

Tier 4: Guys Who Will Still Be Playing Through Two Weekends

-The One-Man Wrecking Crew, With Supporting Class
Notable Characteristics: The awesomer big brother of The One-Man Wrecking Crew.  Only these guys have a supporting class who can step up and help out the Alpha Dog.  Plus, their higher seed means higher expectations.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: Likely Final Four run, if not more.  In March, it's key to have a player who can take over the game--you're usually not going to lose when that happens.
Historical Example: Ohio State, 2007.  You simply were not stopping Greg Oden that year.  And if you doubled him, you had to deal with Mike Conley Jr.  It's one thing to have a dominant player--it's a whole 'nother animal to have a supporting cast who can each make you pay if you overcompensate on him.  Like so.

Possible Fit In This Year's Field: Wesley Johnson and Syracuse, John Wall and Kentucky, Evan Turner and Ohio State, Scottie Reynolds and Villanova.  Every one of these guys fits the bill, and their team will be a top-three seed.

-The Total Package
Notable Characteristics: A team built to win the title.  They don't have any one star who stands out, but they have two or three guys who could step up on any given night, a cast of quality role players to support them, a competent coach, and a difference-making student section.  They've rolled over folks all season, and fully expect to run deep into the tournament.
What Their Tournament Will Look Like: Ideally, a Final Four run; at the very least they'll be in the Elite Eight.  Anything less constitutes a catastrophe.
Historical Example: North Carolina in 2005.  Any time your 6th man goes second overall in the draft, you've got a stacked team.  Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashard McCants, Marvin Williams: how do you possibly match up with that?
Possible Fit In This Year's Field: Kansas.  They run a deep rotation, they can shoot the lights out, they get contributions from everyone, they shoot 70% from the line as a team, and average 18 assists per game.  All without one superstar to take over.