To say I'm a little bit too much into fantasy sports might be the understatement of the century. I'm in one baseball dynasty league, and drafting for another. I know more about minor league prospects than the average person knows about Major League players. My football league with guys from my high school is currently in its 5th year of existence--I'm playing in the championship this weekend for the 3rd time of those 5 years, with a 3rd-place finish to boot. I've been playing fantasy sports since I first signed up for a football team in 5th grade--ten years ago. That's roughly half of my life. So yeah, I'm kind of an authority on the subject.
But not everyone is. Some people just don't know what they are doing. And that's what this post is for. For the newbie, trying to figure out just what the hell he should do. For the veteran dumbass, who is fucking up and not realizing it. And for the fantasy virgin, who is considering getting in on the action but doesn't want to look like a dumbass.
Seriously. If you know your sports moderately well, and follow these simple rules, you'll be fine.
I. Thou shalt not bring thy girlfriend to the draft
Seriously. A fantasy draft is a prime example of Guy Time: we can swear, belch, drink, fart, eat greasy junk food, talk biblical amounts of shit to one another, turn the game on in the background, objectify women, and so on. All it takes is one Token Wet Blanket Girlfriend in the room, and that whole balance is thrown to shit. There's a time and a place for everything and everyone: this isn't hers.
(If you're still confused, think about it this way: you wouldn't bring your girlfriend to your friend's bachelor party, would you? And if you answered "yes" to that question, stop reading right now and don't return until you've gotten your balls back.)
II. Thou shalt talk as much shit as humanly possible
This one goes without saying. It's fun to beat your buddy at something: it's even more fun to beat him, then rub it in his face. It's a proven fact: there is a strong, direct correlation between "Insults hurled" and "Fun league."
III. Thou shalt not start unnecessary drama
This one is located here to keep #2 in check. Shit-talking is one thing. Incessant complaining is another. Behind-the-back shit-talking is another. The Baumann Corollary (aptly named after an ex-friend of mine) is in play here: if you are responsible for 75% of the drama for a group of 5 or more people, you need to re-evaluate your life. And the group needs to seriously re-evaluate whether or not it's better off without you.
(Ironically enough, the keeper league that is currently drafting I mentioned earlier had this exact same problem. Same guy starting 95% of the bullshit on the league message board. Smart guy, knowledgeable about baseball, and attentive to his team--but couldn't stop bitching. He quit a week ago, and the general consensus from everyone was "Thank God that douchebag is gone. Unless you're on Jersey Shore, nobody likes the drama-starter. Nobody.)
IV. Thou shalt keep up-to-date on thy goddamn team
You know the guy I'm talking about--he's recognizable by the two DL or IR players in his starting lineup. Maybe he drafted his team and forgot to check it. Maybe he started off 0-4 and his give-a-shit just broke down. Maybe he has an IQ of 40 and forgot the password for his account. No matter the reason, two things will ALWAYS hold steady with these guys, regardless of anything else:
1. They will always have at least 1, sometimes as many as 4, EXTREMELY valuable players on their team. Just enough to keep the threat that one of these guys could light it up on a given week and humiliate the shit out of you.
2. Because this team is stranded in no-man's land, every valuable commodity on their team is off the trading block. Bad times all around.
V. Thou shalt not compromise the integrity of the league by colluding with other owners
It's no coincidence that I made this one the fifth commandment. This is basically the fantasy equivalent of "Thou shalt not murder." It's dirty, slimy, low, and utterly contrary to the competitive spirit of the game. Yet, it still happens. More often than you think. Including in our fledgling fantasy football league during it's first year. Here's the story:
Ten team league, only four make the playoffs.* I was the only high school sophomore in the league, there were three seniors, and the rest were juniors. I was in the same group of friends as all the juniors--we all knew the three seniors, but weren't generally running buddies with any of them. Three weeks til the end of the year, trade deadline comes up. One of the seniors is battling for the 4th seed in the playoffs, the other two are mathematically eliminated. All of a sudden, the two who are out of contention each lopsidedly trade all of their stars to the third for all of his scrubs. Our league used the "vote on trade" feature at the time,** and we needed 6 of 10 votes to overturn it. Those three didn't veto it, one of our guys had long since abandoned his team, and another one of our guys didn't log in midweek and missed the boat on vetoing it. So both trades went through.
To be fair, our commissioner at the time (my buddy Pat) handled the situation about as well as was humanly possible: he nullified the trades, locked the rosters of the two gutting teams (my idea, something he vehemently reminded everyone after the backlash arose), and basically said "fuck you" to all three when they complained. Though the last guy managed to get into the playoffs in the seediest way possible (he played one of his cohorts in the final week of the season, and the guy started Doug Flutie and nobody else to take a dive), he lost in the first round and I trounced him in what might have been the most heated consolation game in fantasy history.
Two morals here:
1. To date, I regard that consolation game win as the highlight of my fantasy career. Better than any random Internet league I've won. Better than my three-championship-games-in-four-years streak. Better than cruising to a 40-game regular season title my rookie year in fantasy baseball, and sweeping through the playoffs without losing a single hitting matchup. Better than the Jermaine Dye-for-Ichiro coup that got me there (this was Ichiro's rookie year, and NOBODY knew what to expect). The fact that I took out the cheater trumps it all. Unless I can pull off a victory this weekend.
2. The three guys involved were not asked back to the league the next year, making them three of four to meet that requirement (the fourth guy violated the First Commandment two years in a row). It takes a lot to not get asked back.
*Exhibit A in the "You Guys Were Asking For Collusion" defense. Regardless of league size, any playoffs of less than three rounds are not nearly as fun. And having a large playoffs pretty much eliminates any payoff to collusion which, in my mind, completely overwhelms any argument against it.
*Exhibit B. As Kent Brockman once said, "Democracy. Doesn't. Work." We used this setup in all leagues through 2007, when it got out of control in our baseball season. Nobody could make any trades--as long as a rival was being helped, people would veto the trade. We considered forming a three-or-five man committee outside the league to review trades, but eventually decided on letting the commissioner do it. I run our football leagues and my buddy Tyler runs all of our baseball leagues, and we both maintain the same school of though on the veto process (namely, "Allow it if it's unfair because of an owner's stupidity, veto it if it's unfair because of collusion"). And it works.
VI. Thou shalt give thy team a hilariously dirty name
This one is getting it's own column at some point in the near future. I rate names on a 4-star scale.
0-star = Anything generic. "Ron's Sluggers," "Tommy's Bonecrusherz," etc. Grow a brain and come back later.
1-star = Something either funny, related to your team, or topical, but not combining any of the above. When I had LaDanian Tomlinson two years in a row, I went with LT=FootballJesus.* Serviceable, but not spectacular.
2-star = Something funny in a dirty way, funny and related to your team, or funny and topical. My buddy Tim's baseball team a few years ago (The Smashing Blumpkins) qualifies. Also, any 3-star name that has been beaten into the ground falls here as well, such as "Tiger's Wood" for any team at this point.
3-star = A two-star with another element added. (Funny/Dirty/Team, or Funny/Dirty/Topical, or Dirty/Team/Topical). Example: several years ago, I had Casey Kotchman as my first baseman, and named my team Casey Crotchman. Simple, yet effective.
4-star = Anything that combines all four elements of a great team name, or a particularly enjoyable 3-star. Also, any 3-star that employs multiple players from your team goes here. My two keeper league baseball teams? Snakes on John Maine and Byrnes when I Peavy. Top that, bitches.
*This was before Adrian Peterson came to the NFL, and before anyone had ever thought about "Purple Jesus." Today? That team name would never fly.
VII. Thou shalt not try to force awful trades down the throats of thy fellow owners
Here's my theory: you get one offer, and 90 seconds of argument to win me over on a trade offer. If I rebuke it for a specific reason, you can argue the merits of that reason once. But the argument cannot reach a standstill. If it does, you need to accept the fact that you can't make me think like you do, and move on. I know I need speed--it doesn't make your Willy Taveras for Dan Haren offer any more appetizing.
(Also, if you are doing this merely through offers on the league website, you get one offer and that's it. I'm not going to give you Aaron Rodgers just so you'll stop annoying me with trade requests. So stop wasting both of our time.)
VIII. Thou shalt not be a Clock Nazi
We all know the guy. If we're doing the draft in someone's basement, he's badgering people to have lists ready and be set to pick right away. If we're doing it online, he's complaining every time the clock takes more than one minute. And if we're doing it long-term over a few months by e-mail or message board, don't start a federal case if I don't drop what I'm doing to log on and pick. If the commissioner isn't running the league out of the short bus, he's going to make sure that there is zero chance of the draft running into the season. Meanwhile, don't get your panties in a wad--just slow down and enjoy the process.
(For the record, one of the other guys in my now-drafting keeper league was notoriously bad at this for about 8 rounds, to the point that I had to call him out on our board. This constituted the other 5% of drama not started by the guy mentioned under the 3rd commandment. And gave him a platform to chime in on--namely, that waiting longer than 15 minutes to pick was an insult to everyone else in the league somehow, as even those arguing against my "I can take as much time as I want as long as I don't max out the clock" point rolled their eyes. The lesson, as always? Don't feed the trolls.)
IX. Thou shalt serve the office of Commissioner faithfully and honorably
Not all that hard. Don't cheat for yourself or your friends, don't fudge any rosters, don't veto any trades for selfish reasons, don't NOT veto any trades in which you are involved in collusion, don't kick anyone out without a very valid reason, etc. Simple, yet it needs to be mentioned.
X. Thou shalt have at least a basic grasp of thy sport before attempting to join a Fantasy league
Just because Yahoo offers Fantasy Golf, Fantasy NASCAR, Fantasy Formula 1, and Fantasy Mexican League Soccer doesn't mean that I should play them. The same goes for you. I've long maintained that the Simple Fan Test should be used here: basically the way it works, if you can lucidly explain the overtime rules and regulations of a given sport, you can consider yourself a fan of it.
And that's that. There are your commandments, my people. Live them, love them, never forget them. And have a Merry Christmas, goddamnit.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Friday, December 11, 2009
Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe presents The Your Name Here NFL Power Rankings: Week 13 Edition (Part II)
We've muddled through the wreckage of the dregs of the worst of the NFL. Now, on to the teams you might have a chance of seeing come January.
And you know what's the catch? Outside of two of them, and you DEFINITELY can guess which two, each one is critically flawed in some way or another. Ten weeks ago, I wrote this:
The Flawed Contenders Division
14. Atlanta
Positives: No glaring holes at any position. Tony Gonzalez, who has always been an X-factor, and is in the hunt for the playoffs for pretty much the first time since he was a college basketball player. They're offense is balanced.
Negatives: They can't stop anyone (defense ranks 23rd in points, 28th in total yards, 29th in pass yards, 23rd in rush yards), their starting running back is hurt, their starting quarterback is hurt and his backup ranges from "shaky" to "a goldmine to bet against."
What it all means: They're not that good. Especially if Ryan doesn't come back. But with remaining games against the Jets, Bills and Suckaneers after getting shellacked by New Orleans this weekend? You still can't count them out.
13. Baltimore
Positives: Offense is young and supremely talented. Ray Lewis absolutely scares the bejeezus out of every running back in the league. Their offensive line is very good. Their remaining opponents are the Bears, Lions, Steelers and Raiders--they could very easily sweep that stretch. Ray Rice is absolutely filthy--the best-kept secret in the league is getting out in a hurry.
Negatives: The pass defense has been suspect. Flacco isn't as accurate as you'd want--he's not Jamarcus bad, but he's good for two or three head-scratchers a game. Terell Suggs is hurt. Billy Cundiff is, for lack of a better description, not good. As talented as they are, they just can't seem to put it all together.
What it all means: Against that schedule, they should go 4-0 without much difficulty. But for some reason, they won't. They've got the parts of an elite team, they just aren't sure how to assemble those parts. I'm beginning to suspect that Jim Harbaugh is overmatched as an NFL head coach.
12. New York Giants
Positives: They've got playoff experience. Save for the WRs, they're all the same Giants you've come to know and love the past few years. The offense is top-10 in every way. The defense is barely allowing 300 yards per game.
Negatives: The defense is also ranked 25th in the NFL in points per game. Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning both are having off years. Minnesota in Week 17. They've been ridiculously bad a few times this year.
What it all means: Remaining schedule: Philly, Washington, Carolina, Minnesota. If they don't beat the Iggles, you can pretty much write them off. Also, Carolina in Week 16 feels like a classic Trap Game--the Giants are looking ahead to Minnesota, Carolina's running backs brutalize the Giants, Manning throws a few killer picks, and the entire state of New Jersey goes into catatonic shock. Mark my words.
The Enigma Wrapped Inside A Riddle Division
11. Denver
Positives: Feel-good team of the year. Nobody can cover Brandon Marshall, who is suddenly in a great mood. Their defense is simply filthy (third in the league both by points and yards). Josh McDaniels seems to know what he's doing.
Negatives: Kyle Orton and his Hand That Rocks the Cradle beard are still at the helm. Knowshon Moreno has never heard of something called "consistency"--he either looks like the stud he was in college, or he looks like the second coming of Chicago Cedric Benson. Implosions are as much a December tradition for this team as trees, presents, and Santa. Indy and Philly, both on the road, mean they could easily finish 2-2.
What it all means: I have no idea with them. McDaniels could hold them together. Orton and Moreno could combine to murder them. For gambling purposes, I'm legitimately scared of them, in both a good and bad way.
10. New England
Positives: If I have to outline this, you haven't been watching football the past 10 years.
Negatives: Bill Belicheck seems to be unraveling--both in his coaching decisions, and in how he holds sway over his team. They can't run against good teams. This is not the same defense of the dynasty years.
What it all means: They've got remaining games against Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Houston. And the inside track to the division, with Bad 'Stache Sanchez and company the best competition. They'll make the playoffs. Whether they'll do much more than that, however, remains to be seen.
9. Dallas
Positives: Stastically dominant offense. Defense bends, but doesn't break. On paper, these guys should be really, really good.
Negatives: The games aren't played on paper. Tony Romo is historically bad enough in December that the Football Gods would explode the Earth before allowing him on Denver's roster. Wade Phillips is just as bad, if not worse. Still have San Diego, New Orleans, and Philly on the schedule--the Philly game could be rendered irrelevant after the first two.
What it all means: They'll find a way to piss it all away. They always do.
8. Arizona
Positives: They're peaking at the right time. Their division compares most favorably to the Dumpster behind your neighborhood grocery store. Their receiving corps can't be covered. Kurt Warner has been there, and done that. Twice. Detroit and St. Louis pretty much give them guaranteed wins in Weeks 15 and 16.
Negatives: Their defense is as shreddable as pictures of you with decapitated hookers. The running game doesn't inspire much confidence. They got waay too lucky last year to do it again.
What it all means: They're in the same boat as the Patriots--they do some things very well, some other things not at all; they're going to be VERY overrated by a lot of people coming into the playoffs soley based on experience; they WILL be there because, well, someone's gotta represent their divisions; and they will not make it far once they get there because, well, they're not all that great this year.
7. Green Bay
Positives: The roster is stacked. The offense is balanced and good. The defense is playing better than anyone else right now--and have consistently been the best in the league at forcing turnovers. They're peaking at exactly the right time.
Negatives: Aaron Rodgers has never played a playoff game. The defense is banged up. The offensive line put on a historically bad performance for half a season, and if they revert to that form this team is going nowhere. Mike McCarthy is very quietly a possible choking point for them. Minnesota's presence means they'll have to play on the road in January. Probably in Minnesota if they can beat Arizona or Whoever Wins the East. And Minnesota made them look bad twice.
What it all means: I really hope this is the year. I hope the offense is for real. I hope the line can hold together. I hope Rodgers can will himself to outplaying Favre when it counts. I hope the defense can will themselves to outplaying Favre when it counts. I legitimately can hope for all of those things, which is a lot better than could be said the last time I did these Power Rankings. But "possibly" doesn't mean "will."
The Dark Horses Division
6. Philadelphia
Positives: They have no glaring weaknesses. They're still the favorites in the East despite surviving the Kevin Kolb Era. 2-0 so far against DAL and NYG with a game against each remaining, so they control their own destiny.
Negatives: Hey, it's not like McNabb is known for getting the yips in the playoffs, right? They control their own destiny, but also could shoot themselves in the foot if they don't beat at least one of those teams--on the road, mind you. The other games (home agaisnt SF and DEN) are hardly picnics. Without Brian Westbrook, the running game has been very spotty.
What it all means: I think they pull out the division. Their "dark horse" status hinges on Westbrook returning healthy for the playoffs. Their defense is good enough to take them places--if McNabb can avoid the dry heaves.
5. Cincinatti
Positives: The division is pretty much locked up. Cedric Benson is the best comeback player since Kurt Warner. Despite the attitude, Chad Ochocinco is one of the most driven players and best leaders in the league. They've stayed healthy all season.
Negatives: The last time they were in this position, the Steelers eked into the playoffs and shattered their dreams along with Carson Palmer's ACL. They're still the Bengals, and that's worth a mention here. They have games remaining against Minnesota and San Diego--ruh roh.
What it all means: Regardless of how it turns out, this team is the feel-good story of the year. As opposed to two years ago, when they were the jail-good story of the year.
The "History's Not On Their Side" Division
4. Minnesota
Positives: Best offensive line in football. Best defensive line in football. Their quarterback knows how to win. Percy Harvin's kick-return skills could swing a playoff game or two. And oh, by the way, their running back is the best player in all of football.
Negatives: Favre hasn't exactly been Mr. January (or December, for that matter) this decade. Peterson coughs up the ball too much. Their pass defense is very quitely subpar (21st in the league). They looked very beatable against Arizona last week--this is NOT the time to be regressing. Favre is way overdue to blow a game--not a good thing heading into the playoffs.
What it all means: Take it from someone who let Aging Favre sucker him in during 2007: this will NOT end well. There are way too many things that can go wrong with these guys to consider them the team to beat.
3. San Diego
Positives: Peaking at the right time, and riding high at this point. Phillip Rivers is an absolute stud. Cromartie and Jammer are tough to throw against. Darren Sproles is an X-factor in the return game.
Negatives: LaDanian Tomlinson's face is still running on milk cartons. They can't stop the run. Norv Turner always finds a way to kill his teams. They seriously have zero run game.
What it all means: Ignore your friend who is betting on them to finally pull through this year. They're a sexy pick, as on fire as they've been, but with the right matchup and line you could make a killing betting against them in the Divisional round.
The Clear-Cut Favorites Division
2. Indianapolis
Positives: Peyton Manning is a straight-up assassin at this point in his career. Reggie Wayne is the best wideout in football. They can pass and score at will. They're outscoring opponents by an unheard-of 11 points per game.
Negatives: They can't run the ball. Their defense gives up a lot of yards. They haven't really been tested in any close games this year. Really, that's all I've got.
What it all means: They're simply unstoppable. I don't see anyone in the AFC who can beat them.
1. New Orleans
Positives: Drew Brees and Manning are head and shoulders above everyone else. Their rushing attack is surprisingly potent (5th in the league). They've won pretty, they've won ugly, they've won blowouts, they've won coming from behind, they've won nail-biters--this team can win in every way imaginable.
Negatives: Their defense ranks 18th overall in the league. They're dealing with some injuries. They have zero playoff experience. They've let some inferior teams walk on them early in games, before bouncing back--that trick won't work with Minnesota, Philly, Green Bay or (God forbid) Indy.
What it all means: They're one of two picks you can reasonably make to win it all. And I'm saying they do.
Let the bitching and moaning commence.
And you know what's the catch? Outside of two of them, and you DEFINITELY can guess which two, each one is critically flawed in some way or another. Ten weeks ago, I wrote this:
The result of the salary cap and the heavy push towards parity in the NFL is that, fairly frequently, you get a league full of teams ranging from "putrid" to "good." It's not hard to be putrid if you're too stupid to know what you're doing (see Millen, Matt). It's VERY, VERY hard in the current NFL to be any better than "good" for an extended period of time. As a result, you see seasons like this one, in which there is no marquee team. Let's break it down:Today? A lot of it still holds water. Though several of those teams took the plunge to the First Half of the rankings (hint: if you're counting something down, you never want to be in the First Half), the facts still remain: what is coming is an overview of the teams who might be making the playoffs, and for the majority of this overview we will be focusing on a lot of negatives. So let's break each team down into positives, negatives, and what it all means.
New Orleans--can't play defense
Baltimore--too inexperienced, defense is aging
Indianapolis--suspect defense, inexperienced WRs, no depth
NY Giants--Manning is the only skill guy on offense I'd put above "role player"
Denver--quarterbacked by Kyle Orton and his "Hand That Rocks The Cradle" beard, head coach is 33 years old
Cincinnati--they're the fucking Bengals, do I need to go into specifics about why you should doubt them?
Minnesota--QB is 40 and interception-prone, WRs are inexperienced, average defense
NY Jets--rookie QB (never a good sign for a playoff run), no dominant rushing attack to take the focus off of said rookie QB
Atlanta--too inexperienced
San Diego--coached by Norv Turner
Green Bay--can't block anyone, defense is inconsistent
Dallas--QB disappears in the clutch, coached by Wade Phillips
New England--QB coming off of major knee surgery, defense is not as good as you think it is, zero rushing game
Chicago--no WRs, defensive captain is on IR
That's my top 14, and if you read just that list, it might as well be my bottom 14. There is no clear-cut favorite this year.
The Flawed Contenders Division
14. Atlanta
Positives: No glaring holes at any position. Tony Gonzalez, who has always been an X-factor, and is in the hunt for the playoffs for pretty much the first time since he was a college basketball player. They're offense is balanced.
Negatives: They can't stop anyone (defense ranks 23rd in points, 28th in total yards, 29th in pass yards, 23rd in rush yards), their starting running back is hurt, their starting quarterback is hurt and his backup ranges from "shaky" to "a goldmine to bet against."
What it all means: They're not that good. Especially if Ryan doesn't come back. But with remaining games against the Jets, Bills and Suckaneers after getting shellacked by New Orleans this weekend? You still can't count them out.
13. Baltimore
Positives: Offense is young and supremely talented. Ray Lewis absolutely scares the bejeezus out of every running back in the league. Their offensive line is very good. Their remaining opponents are the Bears, Lions, Steelers and Raiders--they could very easily sweep that stretch. Ray Rice is absolutely filthy--the best-kept secret in the league is getting out in a hurry.
Negatives: The pass defense has been suspect. Flacco isn't as accurate as you'd want--he's not Jamarcus bad, but he's good for two or three head-scratchers a game. Terell Suggs is hurt. Billy Cundiff is, for lack of a better description, not good. As talented as they are, they just can't seem to put it all together.
What it all means: Against that schedule, they should go 4-0 without much difficulty. But for some reason, they won't. They've got the parts of an elite team, they just aren't sure how to assemble those parts. I'm beginning to suspect that Jim Harbaugh is overmatched as an NFL head coach.
12. New York Giants
Positives: They've got playoff experience. Save for the WRs, they're all the same Giants you've come to know and love the past few years. The offense is top-10 in every way. The defense is barely allowing 300 yards per game.
Negatives: The defense is also ranked 25th in the NFL in points per game. Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning both are having off years. Minnesota in Week 17. They've been ridiculously bad a few times this year.
What it all means: Remaining schedule: Philly, Washington, Carolina, Minnesota. If they don't beat the Iggles, you can pretty much write them off. Also, Carolina in Week 16 feels like a classic Trap Game--the Giants are looking ahead to Minnesota, Carolina's running backs brutalize the Giants, Manning throws a few killer picks, and the entire state of New Jersey goes into catatonic shock. Mark my words.
The Enigma Wrapped Inside A Riddle Division
11. Denver
Positives: Feel-good team of the year. Nobody can cover Brandon Marshall, who is suddenly in a great mood. Their defense is simply filthy (third in the league both by points and yards). Josh McDaniels seems to know what he's doing.
Negatives: Kyle Orton and his Hand That Rocks the Cradle beard are still at the helm. Knowshon Moreno has never heard of something called "consistency"--he either looks like the stud he was in college, or he looks like the second coming of Chicago Cedric Benson. Implosions are as much a December tradition for this team as trees, presents, and Santa. Indy and Philly, both on the road, mean they could easily finish 2-2.
What it all means: I have no idea with them. McDaniels could hold them together. Orton and Moreno could combine to murder them. For gambling purposes, I'm legitimately scared of them, in both a good and bad way.
10. New England
Positives: If I have to outline this, you haven't been watching football the past 10 years.
Negatives: Bill Belicheck seems to be unraveling--both in his coaching decisions, and in how he holds sway over his team. They can't run against good teams. This is not the same defense of the dynasty years.
What it all means: They've got remaining games against Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Houston. And the inside track to the division, with Bad 'Stache Sanchez and company the best competition. They'll make the playoffs. Whether they'll do much more than that, however, remains to be seen.
9. Dallas
Positives: Stastically dominant offense. Defense bends, but doesn't break. On paper, these guys should be really, really good.
Negatives: The games aren't played on paper. Tony Romo is historically bad enough in December that the Football Gods would explode the Earth before allowing him on Denver's roster. Wade Phillips is just as bad, if not worse. Still have San Diego, New Orleans, and Philly on the schedule--the Philly game could be rendered irrelevant after the first two.
What it all means: They'll find a way to piss it all away. They always do.
8. Arizona
Positives: They're peaking at the right time. Their division compares most favorably to the Dumpster behind your neighborhood grocery store. Their receiving corps can't be covered. Kurt Warner has been there, and done that. Twice. Detroit and St. Louis pretty much give them guaranteed wins in Weeks 15 and 16.
Negatives: Their defense is as shreddable as pictures of you with decapitated hookers. The running game doesn't inspire much confidence. They got waay too lucky last year to do it again.
What it all means: They're in the same boat as the Patriots--they do some things very well, some other things not at all; they're going to be VERY overrated by a lot of people coming into the playoffs soley based on experience; they WILL be there because, well, someone's gotta represent their divisions; and they will not make it far once they get there because, well, they're not all that great this year.
7. Green Bay
Positives: The roster is stacked. The offense is balanced and good. The defense is playing better than anyone else right now--and have consistently been the best in the league at forcing turnovers. They're peaking at exactly the right time.
Negatives: Aaron Rodgers has never played a playoff game. The defense is banged up. The offensive line put on a historically bad performance for half a season, and if they revert to that form this team is going nowhere. Mike McCarthy is very quietly a possible choking point for them. Minnesota's presence means they'll have to play on the road in January. Probably in Minnesota if they can beat Arizona or Whoever Wins the East. And Minnesota made them look bad twice.
What it all means: I really hope this is the year. I hope the offense is for real. I hope the line can hold together. I hope Rodgers can will himself to outplaying Favre when it counts. I hope the defense can will themselves to outplaying Favre when it counts. I legitimately can hope for all of those things, which is a lot better than could be said the last time I did these Power Rankings. But "possibly" doesn't mean "will."
The Dark Horses Division
6. Philadelphia
Positives: They have no glaring weaknesses. They're still the favorites in the East despite surviving the Kevin Kolb Era. 2-0 so far against DAL and NYG with a game against each remaining, so they control their own destiny.
Negatives: Hey, it's not like McNabb is known for getting the yips in the playoffs, right? They control their own destiny, but also could shoot themselves in the foot if they don't beat at least one of those teams--on the road, mind you. The other games (home agaisnt SF and DEN) are hardly picnics. Without Brian Westbrook, the running game has been very spotty.
What it all means: I think they pull out the division. Their "dark horse" status hinges on Westbrook returning healthy for the playoffs. Their defense is good enough to take them places--if McNabb can avoid the dry heaves.
5. Cincinatti
Positives: The division is pretty much locked up. Cedric Benson is the best comeback player since Kurt Warner. Despite the attitude, Chad Ochocinco is one of the most driven players and best leaders in the league. They've stayed healthy all season.
Negatives: The last time they were in this position, the Steelers eked into the playoffs and shattered their dreams along with Carson Palmer's ACL. They're still the Bengals, and that's worth a mention here. They have games remaining against Minnesota and San Diego--ruh roh.
What it all means: Regardless of how it turns out, this team is the feel-good story of the year. As opposed to two years ago, when they were the jail-good story of the year.
The "History's Not On Their Side" Division
4. Minnesota
Positives: Best offensive line in football. Best defensive line in football. Their quarterback knows how to win. Percy Harvin's kick-return skills could swing a playoff game or two. And oh, by the way, their running back is the best player in all of football.
Negatives: Favre hasn't exactly been Mr. January (or December, for that matter) this decade. Peterson coughs up the ball too much. Their pass defense is very quitely subpar (21st in the league). They looked very beatable against Arizona last week--this is NOT the time to be regressing. Favre is way overdue to blow a game--not a good thing heading into the playoffs.
What it all means: Take it from someone who let Aging Favre sucker him in during 2007: this will NOT end well. There are way too many things that can go wrong with these guys to consider them the team to beat.
3. San Diego
Positives: Peaking at the right time, and riding high at this point. Phillip Rivers is an absolute stud. Cromartie and Jammer are tough to throw against. Darren Sproles is an X-factor in the return game.
Negatives: LaDanian Tomlinson's face is still running on milk cartons. They can't stop the run. Norv Turner always finds a way to kill his teams. They seriously have zero run game.
What it all means: Ignore your friend who is betting on them to finally pull through this year. They're a sexy pick, as on fire as they've been, but with the right matchup and line you could make a killing betting against them in the Divisional round.
The Clear-Cut Favorites Division
2. Indianapolis
Positives: Peyton Manning is a straight-up assassin at this point in his career. Reggie Wayne is the best wideout in football. They can pass and score at will. They're outscoring opponents by an unheard-of 11 points per game.
Negatives: They can't run the ball. Their defense gives up a lot of yards. They haven't really been tested in any close games this year. Really, that's all I've got.
What it all means: They're simply unstoppable. I don't see anyone in the AFC who can beat them.
1. New Orleans
Positives: Drew Brees and Manning are head and shoulders above everyone else. Their rushing attack is surprisingly potent (5th in the league). They've won pretty, they've won ugly, they've won blowouts, they've won coming from behind, they've won nail-biters--this team can win in every way imaginable.
Negatives: Their defense ranks 18th overall in the league. They're dealing with some injuries. They have zero playoff experience. They've let some inferior teams walk on them early in games, before bouncing back--that trick won't work with Minnesota, Philly, Green Bay or (God forbid) Indy.
What it all means: They're one of two picks you can reasonably make to win it all. And I'm saying they do.
Let the bitching and moaning commence.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe presents The Your Name Here NFL Power Rankings: Week 13 Edition (Part I)
Hopefully, we can get a sponsor for this thing by next year. If you're interested, contact my agent (who, coincidentally enough seeing as how I've made exactly $4.72 as a result of this blog, is myself). In the meantime, this is the last one of these I'm doing before the playoffs. So enjoy.
The Mr. Hankey Division
32. St. Louis
It's not even close. Had Detroit not set futility history a year ago, they'd be in the "Worst of All-Time" discussion. You have to hand it to Steven Jackson. The fact that he hasn't gone on a three-state killing spree at this point is a testament to his will and character.
31. Tampa Bay
Funny how they switch starting quarterbacks, the new guy puts up one or two reasonably decent performances, dupes the fans and media into believing that he's the guy, then falls apart faster than, well, Tiger Woods' credibility? At this point, why not rotate Leftwich, Johnson and Freeman every week? What have you got to lose?
(And for those keeping track at home, that's two Tiger jokes already. And you thought I was more dignified than that.)
30. Cleveland
Where does "Derek Anderson's Agent" rank on the list of "Jobs I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy?" Is it above, or below "Rosie O'Donnell's toilet scrubber," "Chris Brown's Girlfriend," and "Gary Busey's PR Guy?" A question for the ages.
(Worth noting: The Browns moved up from 31 to 30 as a result of beating the Steelers Thursday night. At any point in history, could a 1-11 team beat the defending Super Bowl champion and only move up 1 spot before now? In the words of the grounds crew from the movie Major League, "They're still shitty.")
29. Detroit
A year ago, they were the worst team in the history of the sport. With apologies to the expansion Buccaneers. This year, there are 3 teams worse than them in their season alone. Does this qualify them for Most Improved Team of the Year? Some will say yes--and this speaks more to the awfulness of last year's Hello Kitties than anything else.
28. Oakland
Has any player in any sport, ever, killed his stock as quickly and decisively as Jamarcus Russell? Yes, I know he's the only Oakland player I've talked about pretty much all season long. But the dude deserves the attention for how badly he has sunk. Two years ago he was a potential franchise player, worth $68 million. Now? You couldn't find a team in the league that will take his contract on for free. He's a quarterback who can't throw, which is unfortunate since throwing is the majority of your job as quarterback. You wouldn't hire a secretary who can't type. You wouldn't hire a sniper who can't aim. Why would you draft a quarterback #1 overall who has no sense of aiming the ball? I can understand someone who is below average, with hopes that he will improve. You can move "Needs Improvement" up to "Good,"--see "Rodgers, Aaron." But to draft someone with no talent for it at all, in hopes that he will someday be passable? It's never worked out before. And again, it didn't work out. Stick a fork in his career. He's done.
27. Kansas City
I originally had them in the next division. But upon further review, the "Wait 'Til Next Year!" Division is for teams with youth, promise, and just need it all to develop--wheras the "Mr. Hankey Division" is for teams who are, well, pure shit. Upon further review, KC fits in the second group. They released the only player on their roster ever regarded as All-Pro caliber. They mortgaged their future for a quarterback who, removed from top-shelf surroundings in New England, ranks between Brady Quinn and Marc Bulger for passer rating. All in all, with respect to Herm Edwards, I just don't see how we can build on this.
The "Wait 'Til Next Year" Division
26. Carolina
They've got a respectable defense. They've got a good running game. They've got Steve Smith. And they've got Jake Delhomme and Matt Mooreshooting themselves in the foot cutting both of their feet off. Give them a passable game manager, and they're a contender. Give them a franchise signal-caller, and they're in the NFL's elite.
25. Washington
They were worse than people thought at the beginning of the year, and they're better than people think now. Since their bye week, they've been in every game; and in the past three weeks they lost to Dallas, Philadephia, and New Orleans--a combined 28-8--by a combined 7 points.
24. Buffalo
They finally got rid of Dick Jauron. Which, if nothing else, gives them some semblance of hope for next year. The roster might be a C-, but the coach is no longer an F.
The Terminally Flawed Division
23. Chicago
Jay Cutler is not a franchise quarterback. Franchise quarterbacks win games. Cutler posts gaudy numbers against inferior opponents, andoccasionally frequently cripples his team by throwing to the wrong jersey repeatedly. But they should have Brian Urlacher back next year, and Matt Forte is a year more experienced. So, I guess you can hope.
22. New York Jets
They're not there. If Mark Sanchez cuts the Jay Cutler Memorial "Throw 4 Picks And Cripple My Team" routine out of his repertoire, they're in business. Work on that, Mark, then we'll talk.
(For the record: Rex Ryan has completely turned their defense around. They look good. Not great, but good. He'll turn them into "great" eventually.
21. Seattle
The most boring team in the entire NFL. And they play in the worst division. It's almost criminal. I hate to talk about them for more than four sentences, so let's move on.
20. Houston
They're a team with no stability. Until Matt Schaub can figure out how to not collapse with a fourth-quarter lead, until they can decide between Ryan Moats and Steve Slaton, until their defense can decide if they are all-world or Gawd-awful... they're stuck at #20, in my version of Football Purgatory. We're not talking about a lack of potential. But it's gotta come together at some point.
The Almost-Competent Division
19. San Francisco
They're a contender, purely as a result of the division they play in. And, for the record, let's take a look at the difference between a "very good" running back and a "great" running back:
Very Good Running Back--He keeps his team respectable. He puts up awesome stats, breaks big gains, and gives his fans hope--but, he's unable to carry them over the hump. He can take a mediocre supporting cast and make them appear passable, but not good. See "Gore, Frank."
Great Running Back--He carries his team. He puts up awesome stats, takes over in crunch time, and simply throttles lesser teams. Despite the best efforts of his supporting cast, he is that fucking good that his team is always respectable. With Scott Mitchell and Wayne Fontes doing their best to undermine him, he can single-handedly carry his team to the playoffs. Opponents gameplan for him, disregarding anything the passing game might have to offer. See "Sanders, Barry."
If Gore can carry the Niners to the division, despite the notable handicap of Alex Smith? He at least is sniffing the second category. If not? I'm not so sure.
18. Miami
Chad Henne doesn't look that bad. Ted Ginn Jr., on the other hand, does. He wasn't as bad a pick as Russell, but he's gotta be one of the worst of 2007. So many illogical choices in that draft. Russell over everybody. Ginn over Marshawn Lynch. Adam Carricker over Darelle Revis. Stunning.
17. Pittsburgh
These guys were at 13 until the Browns beat them. As it stands? Five and a row, and they need to win out to make the playoffs--maybe. The rest of the middle of the AFC just chest-bumped each other.
16. Tennessee
Perhaps the definitive "day late and a dollar short" team of the decade. What happens if they start Vince Young from Day One? They're top 10 at least, right, if not top 5? Does anyone want to play them at this point?
15. Jacksonville
They're a rich man's version of Seattle--a kinda-sorta okay football team that doesn't really excite anyone. Yet, they're 7-5 and looking at a possible playoff game, despite being so plain-vanilla that their own fans won't even come out to watch them. I say the Football Gods smite them down the stretch, justifying this low ranking.
Coming this afternoon... Part II
The Mr. Hankey Division
32. St. Louis
It's not even close. Had Detroit not set futility history a year ago, they'd be in the "Worst of All-Time" discussion. You have to hand it to Steven Jackson. The fact that he hasn't gone on a three-state killing spree at this point is a testament to his will and character.
31. Tampa Bay
Funny how they switch starting quarterbacks, the new guy puts up one or two reasonably decent performances, dupes the fans and media into believing that he's the guy, then falls apart faster than, well, Tiger Woods' credibility? At this point, why not rotate Leftwich, Johnson and Freeman every week? What have you got to lose?
(And for those keeping track at home, that's two Tiger jokes already. And you thought I was more dignified than that.)
30. Cleveland
Where does "Derek Anderson's Agent" rank on the list of "Jobs I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy?" Is it above, or below "Rosie O'Donnell's toilet scrubber," "Chris Brown's Girlfriend," and "Gary Busey's PR Guy?" A question for the ages.
(Worth noting: The Browns moved up from 31 to 30 as a result of beating the Steelers Thursday night. At any point in history, could a 1-11 team beat the defending Super Bowl champion and only move up 1 spot before now? In the words of the grounds crew from the movie Major League, "They're still shitty.")
29. Detroit
A year ago, they were the worst team in the history of the sport. With apologies to the expansion Buccaneers. This year, there are 3 teams worse than them in their season alone. Does this qualify them for Most Improved Team of the Year? Some will say yes--and this speaks more to the awfulness of last year's Hello Kitties than anything else.
28. Oakland
Has any player in any sport, ever, killed his stock as quickly and decisively as Jamarcus Russell? Yes, I know he's the only Oakland player I've talked about pretty much all season long. But the dude deserves the attention for how badly he has sunk. Two years ago he was a potential franchise player, worth $68 million. Now? You couldn't find a team in the league that will take his contract on for free. He's a quarterback who can't throw, which is unfortunate since throwing is the majority of your job as quarterback. You wouldn't hire a secretary who can't type. You wouldn't hire a sniper who can't aim. Why would you draft a quarterback #1 overall who has no sense of aiming the ball? I can understand someone who is below average, with hopes that he will improve. You can move "Needs Improvement" up to "Good,"--see "Rodgers, Aaron." But to draft someone with no talent for it at all, in hopes that he will someday be passable? It's never worked out before. And again, it didn't work out. Stick a fork in his career. He's done.
27. Kansas City
I originally had them in the next division. But upon further review, the "Wait 'Til Next Year!" Division is for teams with youth, promise, and just need it all to develop--wheras the "Mr. Hankey Division" is for teams who are, well, pure shit. Upon further review, KC fits in the second group. They released the only player on their roster ever regarded as All-Pro caliber. They mortgaged their future for a quarterback who, removed from top-shelf surroundings in New England, ranks between Brady Quinn and Marc Bulger for passer rating. All in all, with respect to Herm Edwards, I just don't see how we can build on this.
The "Wait 'Til Next Year" Division
26. Carolina
They've got a respectable defense. They've got a good running game. They've got Steve Smith. And they've got Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore
25. Washington
They were worse than people thought at the beginning of the year, and they're better than people think now. Since their bye week, they've been in every game; and in the past three weeks they lost to Dallas, Philadephia, and New Orleans--a combined 28-8--by a combined 7 points.
24. Buffalo
They finally got rid of Dick Jauron. Which, if nothing else, gives them some semblance of hope for next year. The roster might be a C-, but the coach is no longer an F.
The Terminally Flawed Division
23. Chicago
Jay Cutler is not a franchise quarterback. Franchise quarterbacks win games. Cutler posts gaudy numbers against inferior opponents, and
22. New York Jets
They're not there. If Mark Sanchez cuts the Jay Cutler Memorial "Throw 4 Picks And Cripple My Team" routine out of his repertoire, they're in business. Work on that, Mark, then we'll talk.
(For the record: Rex Ryan has completely turned their defense around. They look good. Not great, but good. He'll turn them into "great" eventually.
21. Seattle
The most boring team in the entire NFL. And they play in the worst division. It's almost criminal. I hate to talk about them for more than four sentences, so let's move on.
20. Houston
They're a team with no stability. Until Matt Schaub can figure out how to not collapse with a fourth-quarter lead, until they can decide between Ryan Moats and Steve Slaton, until their defense can decide if they are all-world or Gawd-awful... they're stuck at #20, in my version of Football Purgatory. We're not talking about a lack of potential. But it's gotta come together at some point.
The Almost-Competent Division
19. San Francisco
They're a contender, purely as a result of the division they play in. And, for the record, let's take a look at the difference between a "very good" running back and a "great" running back:
Very Good Running Back--He keeps his team respectable. He puts up awesome stats, breaks big gains, and gives his fans hope--but, he's unable to carry them over the hump. He can take a mediocre supporting cast and make them appear passable, but not good. See "Gore, Frank."
Great Running Back--He carries his team. He puts up awesome stats, takes over in crunch time, and simply throttles lesser teams. Despite the best efforts of his supporting cast, he is that fucking good that his team is always respectable. With Scott Mitchell and Wayne Fontes doing their best to undermine him, he can single-handedly carry his team to the playoffs. Opponents gameplan for him, disregarding anything the passing game might have to offer. See "Sanders, Barry."
If Gore can carry the Niners to the division, despite the notable handicap of Alex Smith? He at least is sniffing the second category. If not? I'm not so sure.
18. Miami
Chad Henne doesn't look that bad. Ted Ginn Jr., on the other hand, does. He wasn't as bad a pick as Russell, but he's gotta be one of the worst of 2007. So many illogical choices in that draft. Russell over everybody. Ginn over Marshawn Lynch. Adam Carricker over Darelle Revis. Stunning.
17. Pittsburgh
These guys were at 13 until the Browns beat them. As it stands? Five and a row, and they need to win out to make the playoffs--maybe. The rest of the middle of the AFC just chest-bumped each other.
16. Tennessee
Perhaps the definitive "day late and a dollar short" team of the decade. What happens if they start Vince Young from Day One? They're top 10 at least, right, if not top 5? Does anyone want to play them at this point?
15. Jacksonville
They're a rich man's version of Seattle--a kinda-sorta okay football team that doesn't really excite anyone. Yet, they're 7-5 and looking at a possible playoff game, despite being so plain-vanilla that their own fans won't even come out to watch them. I say the Football Gods smite them down the stretch, justifying this low ranking.
Coming this afternoon... Part II
Monday, December 7, 2009
The Pointless Hypotheticals Division presents: A Far Superior Alternative to the BCMess
Today's long-ass piece starts off with a few statements of fact:
1. The bowl pairings were released yesterday.
2. Nobody really likes the bowl system all that much.
3. The NCAA Basketball tournament is the most fun event of the sporting world.
4. I'm a sports nerd, and love "What If" questions.
5. I'm finishing up my laundry, and a typical Wisconsin December (read: cold and snow, interspersed with occasional snow and cold) combined with me being too dirt poor to afford a car means that going anywhere outside is generally not a good idea.
Combine these, and what do you get?
1. The football people at the NCAA should pull their heads out of their asses and switch to a playoff system.
2. Since #1 isn't going to happen, and I have nothing better to do until Monday Night Football, I took the liberty of designing my own version.
Here's the basic concepts of my system: For one, it's 32 teams, divided into 4 regions of 8 teams. Which seems like a fair number. You get pretty much the entire Top 25 in there, plus a few stragglers. Plus, the five-round setup means that the schedule would go like this:
1st Round: Dec 12 (at the home stadium of the higher seed)
2nd Round: Dec 19 (at a neutral site)
Regional Final: Dec 26 (at the same neutral site as last week's game--probably, the 4 existing BCS bowls could each host a regional)
National Semifinals: January 1/2 (at another neutral site)
National Championship: January 9 (same site as last week)
There you go. Everything fits in the schedule, and one of the main arguments against a playoff system (it makes the season too long!) gets blown out of the water. Guess when this year's championship game is, sans playoff? January 7. Yep, we just extended the season by two games. I'm shocked the world isn't ending.
(As an aside, the other two arguments against a playoff hold no water as well. A 17-game schedule is too grueling? When these guys get to the NFL, they'll be playing at least 16 games. And none of those games will be against Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP, or UCF--Texas's actual non-conference schedule this year. The every-week schedule through December will distract students during finals? Any more than daily practices do for the several dozen bowl-bound teams? If anything, you're looking at fewer teams getting distracted: 16 teams will be playing after finals week, as opposed to the 66 that currently do.)
Another fun catch: every conference champion gets in. Which means jack shit for Alabama, Georgia Tech, or Oregon--who would've been here anyway. But also means that East Carolina and Troy have a bite at the apple. Okay, not much of one. But still.
Taking this idea, I ran with it. Take the BCS rankings, use them to fill out the seedings as best as possible, and fill in the last few with ESPN's power rankings. Tweak them where needed for extreme regional purposes and to make sure you have no in-conference first-round matchups, and you're set to go.
Here's what the playoffs would look like:
#1 Seeds: Alabama (East), Texas (South), Cincy (Midwest), TCU (West)
Regional pairings: East vs. West, South vs. Midwest
Midwest Region:
1 Cincinatti
2 Ohio State
3 Iowa
4 Penn State
5 Oklahoma State
6 Utah
7 Central Michigan
8 East Carolina
Notes on the region: The 7 seeds ended up a bit screwy (I originally had Northwestern here, but had to move them so they weren't playing Ohio State in the first round), but other than that everything fell into place. A couple great first round matchups: Ohio State-Central Michigan would be a lot closer than people think, and Penn State-Oklahoma State would be a thriller. A possible Ohio State-Iowa rematch in the second round, and a possible Ohio Bowl between OSU and Cincy for the regional final all look great--if Terelle Pryor doesn't self-destruct, like he is wont to do. And there will be opportunities for it--Central Michigan is one of the most underrated teams in the country (they played Arizona damn close, and beat Michigan State in a memorable game early in the year); and Iowa took them to overtime.
Picks: Cincy, OSU, Iowa, and OK State advance. Iowa over Cincy in the final.
West:
1 TCU
2 Oregon
3 LSU
4 BYU
5 Oregon State
6 Stanford
7 Northwestern
8 Texas Tech
Notes: TCU smoked BYU in their regular season matchup. Love the Stanford-LSU upset potential--and that opens the door for Oregon having to face their only conference loss in the 2nd round. Also love TCU-Texas Tech in the first round. He'll, these all look like they could be competitive. And it's not like that's exciting or anything.
Picks: TCU, Oregon, Stanford, BYU advance. TCU over Stanford in the final.
East:
1 Alabama
2 Boise State
3 Virginia Tech
4 Miami
5 West Virginia
6 Wisconsin
7 Clemson
8 North Carolina
Notes: Alabama gets lumped in with a large number of vagabonds. The 4 through 7 seeds were all moved due to matchup or regional problems. West Virginia graded out the last 4 seed originally, but would've been playing Pitt in the first round. Wisconsin was bumped up to avoid USC playing in the East. Boise State got shafted by the BCS, but they graded out as the second-best 2-seed, so I couldn't justify dropping them--so, to mimic the BCS screwing them over, I stuck them in the East. And put them against Clemson--a frisky team that probably is a lot better than their 7 ranking indicates. None of the underdogs are taking down Bama, but the rest of the bracket would be entertaining as all hell.
Picks: Bama, Boise, Wisconsin and Miami advance. Bama slaughters Boise in the final.
South:
1 Texas
2 Florida
3 Georgia Tech
4 Pitt
5 Arizona
6 Nebraska
7 USC
8 Troy
Notes: Pitt was a high 5 that benefitted from a would've-been first-round date with a conference team. USC was a low 6 that was hurt by the regional shake-up. GA Tech-Nebraska might be the most entertaining 1st-round matchup on the list: I absolutely love both teams. This region is stacked. Florida-USC? Thanks for playing, Matt Barkley. You can pick up your consolation prize on the way out, and don't forget to use this four-pick performance as motivation during the off-season. The spread for Texas-Troy might top 50 points. Tebow vs. McCoy with a regional championship on the line? That blows any drama during a pre-New Years bowl game out of the water.
Picks: Texas, Florida, Nebraska, Arizona. Florida over Texas in an instant classic.
Final Four: #1 Alabama vs. #1 TCU; #3 Iowa vs. #2 Florida.
Notes/Picks: A lot of people thought TCU should play Bama for the national title. They'll get their shot here. I think it's a classic, I think TCU puts up a heroic fight, but I think Bama just has too much. On the other side, I again think the SEC team is too talented, and will withstand a heroic upset effort. And in the SEC rematch? I think Tebow gets his vengeance.
Questions? Comments? Like it? Hate it? Want my body? That's what the comments section is for. Thanks for reading, as always.
1. The bowl pairings were released yesterday.
2. Nobody really likes the bowl system all that much.
3. The NCAA Basketball tournament is the most fun event of the sporting world.
4. I'm a sports nerd, and love "What If" questions.
5. I'm finishing up my laundry, and a typical Wisconsin December (read: cold and snow, interspersed with occasional snow and cold) combined with me being too dirt poor to afford a car means that going anywhere outside is generally not a good idea.
Combine these, and what do you get?
1. The football people at the NCAA should pull their heads out of their asses and switch to a playoff system.
2. Since #1 isn't going to happen, and I have nothing better to do until Monday Night Football, I took the liberty of designing my own version.
Here's the basic concepts of my system: For one, it's 32 teams, divided into 4 regions of 8 teams. Which seems like a fair number. You get pretty much the entire Top 25 in there, plus a few stragglers. Plus, the five-round setup means that the schedule would go like this:
1st Round: Dec 12 (at the home stadium of the higher seed)
2nd Round: Dec 19 (at a neutral site)
Regional Final: Dec 26 (at the same neutral site as last week's game--probably, the 4 existing BCS bowls could each host a regional)
National Semifinals: January 1/2 (at another neutral site)
National Championship: January 9 (same site as last week)
There you go. Everything fits in the schedule, and one of the main arguments against a playoff system (it makes the season too long!) gets blown out of the water. Guess when this year's championship game is, sans playoff? January 7. Yep, we just extended the season by two games. I'm shocked the world isn't ending.
(As an aside, the other two arguments against a playoff hold no water as well. A 17-game schedule is too grueling? When these guys get to the NFL, they'll be playing at least 16 games. And none of those games will be against Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP, or UCF--Texas's actual non-conference schedule this year. The every-week schedule through December will distract students during finals? Any more than daily practices do for the several dozen bowl-bound teams? If anything, you're looking at fewer teams getting distracted: 16 teams will be playing after finals week, as opposed to the 66 that currently do.)
Another fun catch: every conference champion gets in. Which means jack shit for Alabama, Georgia Tech, or Oregon--who would've been here anyway. But also means that East Carolina and Troy have a bite at the apple. Okay, not much of one. But still.
Taking this idea, I ran with it. Take the BCS rankings, use them to fill out the seedings as best as possible, and fill in the last few with ESPN's power rankings. Tweak them where needed for extreme regional purposes and to make sure you have no in-conference first-round matchups, and you're set to go.
Here's what the playoffs would look like:
#1 Seeds: Alabama (East), Texas (South), Cincy (Midwest), TCU (West)
Regional pairings: East vs. West, South vs. Midwest
Midwest Region:
1 Cincinatti
2 Ohio State
3 Iowa
4 Penn State
5 Oklahoma State
6 Utah
7 Central Michigan
8 East Carolina
Notes on the region: The 7 seeds ended up a bit screwy (I originally had Northwestern here, but had to move them so they weren't playing Ohio State in the first round), but other than that everything fell into place. A couple great first round matchups: Ohio State-Central Michigan would be a lot closer than people think, and Penn State-Oklahoma State would be a thriller. A possible Ohio State-Iowa rematch in the second round, and a possible Ohio Bowl between OSU and Cincy for the regional final all look great--if Terelle Pryor doesn't self-destruct, like he is wont to do. And there will be opportunities for it--Central Michigan is one of the most underrated teams in the country (they played Arizona damn close, and beat Michigan State in a memorable game early in the year); and Iowa took them to overtime.
Picks: Cincy, OSU, Iowa, and OK State advance. Iowa over Cincy in the final.
West:
1 TCU
2 Oregon
3 LSU
4 BYU
5 Oregon State
6 Stanford
7 Northwestern
8 Texas Tech
Notes: TCU smoked BYU in their regular season matchup. Love the Stanford-LSU upset potential--and that opens the door for Oregon having to face their only conference loss in the 2nd round. Also love TCU-Texas Tech in the first round. He'll, these all look like they could be competitive. And it's not like that's exciting or anything.
Picks: TCU, Oregon, Stanford, BYU advance. TCU over Stanford in the final.
East:
1 Alabama
2 Boise State
3 Virginia Tech
4 Miami
5 West Virginia
6 Wisconsin
7 Clemson
8 North Carolina
Notes: Alabama gets lumped in with a large number of vagabonds. The 4 through 7 seeds were all moved due to matchup or regional problems. West Virginia graded out the last 4 seed originally, but would've been playing Pitt in the first round. Wisconsin was bumped up to avoid USC playing in the East. Boise State got shafted by the BCS, but they graded out as the second-best 2-seed, so I couldn't justify dropping them--so, to mimic the BCS screwing them over, I stuck them in the East. And put them against Clemson--a frisky team that probably is a lot better than their 7 ranking indicates. None of the underdogs are taking down Bama, but the rest of the bracket would be entertaining as all hell.
Picks: Bama, Boise, Wisconsin and Miami advance. Bama slaughters Boise in the final.
South:
1 Texas
2 Florida
3 Georgia Tech
4 Pitt
5 Arizona
6 Nebraska
7 USC
8 Troy
Notes: Pitt was a high 5 that benefitted from a would've-been first-round date with a conference team. USC was a low 6 that was hurt by the regional shake-up. GA Tech-Nebraska might be the most entertaining 1st-round matchup on the list: I absolutely love both teams. This region is stacked. Florida-USC? Thanks for playing, Matt Barkley. You can pick up your consolation prize on the way out, and don't forget to use this four-pick performance as motivation during the off-season. The spread for Texas-Troy might top 50 points. Tebow vs. McCoy with a regional championship on the line? That blows any drama during a pre-New Years bowl game out of the water.
Picks: Texas, Florida, Nebraska, Arizona. Florida over Texas in an instant classic.
Final Four: #1 Alabama vs. #1 TCU; #3 Iowa vs. #2 Florida.
Notes/Picks: A lot of people thought TCU should play Bama for the national title. They'll get their shot here. I think it's a classic, I think TCU puts up a heroic fight, but I think Bama just has too much. On the other side, I again think the SEC team is too talented, and will withstand a heroic upset effort. And in the SEC rematch? I think Tebow gets his vengeance.
Questions? Comments? Like it? Hate it? Want my body? That's what the comments section is for. Thanks for reading, as always.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Tiger caught pulling his wood out of the bag at the wrong time
In case you've been stuck in a cave the past week and missed it: Tiger Woods cheated on his supermodel wife with the mannish looking chick from this last season of Tool Academy.
A few brief thoughts first:
-My girlfriend upon reading about the news: "That's the one whose boyfriend on the show had his other girlfriend of 7 years make a surprise appearance--and he picked the other girl over her!" So this girl got screwed over by a cheating boyfriend, and remains currently very willing to help another man cheat on his wife. I'll let you interpret what this says about most women in our society.
-Tiger's "I'm sorry for this indiscretion, but I'm not going to detail what said indiscretion is" semi-apology sounded awfully familiar. Are we sure Jason Giambi isn't heading up his PR team?
-Apparently Tiger's phone wasn't password-protected, and he left voicemails on his phone, which Mrs. Tiger was easily able to access. To me, this is huge: because it suggests that he's never done this before. The first rule of lying is "cover your ass at all points." There is a reason I don't cheat, and it's because I would not be any good at it. I'm a big-picture person, and covering up indiscretions is all about the details. But we've known Tiger as a public for well over a decade, and he's a fairly smart fella. If he'd done this before, he would've either made the same mistake (and gotten caught, and learned his lesson from it, and not done it again) or taken care of things earlier (and not gotten caught).
Now, there are a lot of people asking why the hell he would do this. Why would he risk his career, his endorsements, and his family? Why would he do something so risky? And the question most men are asking: why in the hell would he abandon one of the hottest women alive for something that looks like it might have, at one point, had a disco stick?
(Note: I'm not implying that she is a tranny, in any way. Just saying that she looks like it. Back to the point.)
A trending topic on Twitter today is #whymencheat. Here's the simple answer: because they are unhappy.
They might be unhappy with themselves, which is the main reason: if you are an insecure fuck who hates himself when you're single, you will be an insecure fuck who hates himself with a hot piece of arm candy. So you keep searching for someone to break the cycle, to make you a self-confident fuck who loves himself.
In Tiger's case, though, I don't think this was it. I think he's the other unhappy: the kind who is unhappy with his wife. Yes, Elin Nordegren is one of the hottest women alive. But physical beauty alone isn't enough to make a 6-year-long marriage stay happy. And Elin never gave off the vibe that she gave two shits about Tiger's happiness.
Like most gorgeous women, she didn't want an equal, a partner: she wanted a sugar daddy. She loved his money. She loved the attention that marriage to him brought. She loved being able to hug him in front of the TV cameras after he won a tournament. Being with him was never enough, and it showed. Look at pictures: she smiles when he wins, when she knows the camera is watching, and probably when they're shopping. Candid shots, she's not smiling. Because it's not HIM that makes her happy--it's what he can do for HER.
And, as stated before, Tiger is fairly smart, and fairly perceptive. As confusing an emotion as love is, when someone does not love you, you know it. Especially after six years.
I don't think theirs is a happy marriage. To be honest, I don't think it will last. And if it does, I don't think this will be the last we hear of something like this.
To summarize: men cheat because they are unhappy. A happy man does not need the risk of getting caught. Even if it's a small risk. An unhappy man sees the chance to be happy, the upside of which overwhelms the risk assumed if you are caught. And every indication shows that Tiger Woods was not happy.
A few brief thoughts first:
-My girlfriend upon reading about the news: "That's the one whose boyfriend on the show had his other girlfriend of 7 years make a surprise appearance--and he picked the other girl over her!" So this girl got screwed over by a cheating boyfriend, and remains currently very willing to help another man cheat on his wife. I'll let you interpret what this says about most women in our society.
-Tiger's "I'm sorry for this indiscretion, but I'm not going to detail what said indiscretion is" semi-apology sounded awfully familiar. Are we sure Jason Giambi isn't heading up his PR team?
-Apparently Tiger's phone wasn't password-protected, and he left voicemails on his phone, which Mrs. Tiger was easily able to access. To me, this is huge: because it suggests that he's never done this before. The first rule of lying is "cover your ass at all points." There is a reason I don't cheat, and it's because I would not be any good at it. I'm a big-picture person, and covering up indiscretions is all about the details. But we've known Tiger as a public for well over a decade, and he's a fairly smart fella. If he'd done this before, he would've either made the same mistake (and gotten caught, and learned his lesson from it, and not done it again) or taken care of things earlier (and not gotten caught).
Now, there are a lot of people asking why the hell he would do this. Why would he risk his career, his endorsements, and his family? Why would he do something so risky? And the question most men are asking: why in the hell would he abandon one of the hottest women alive for something that looks like it might have, at one point, had a disco stick?
(Note: I'm not implying that she is a tranny, in any way. Just saying that she looks like it. Back to the point.)
A trending topic on Twitter today is #whymencheat. Here's the simple answer: because they are unhappy.
They might be unhappy with themselves, which is the main reason: if you are an insecure fuck who hates himself when you're single, you will be an insecure fuck who hates himself with a hot piece of arm candy. So you keep searching for someone to break the cycle, to make you a self-confident fuck who loves himself.
In Tiger's case, though, I don't think this was it. I think he's the other unhappy: the kind who is unhappy with his wife. Yes, Elin Nordegren is one of the hottest women alive. But physical beauty alone isn't enough to make a 6-year-long marriage stay happy. And Elin never gave off the vibe that she gave two shits about Tiger's happiness.
Like most gorgeous women, she didn't want an equal, a partner: she wanted a sugar daddy. She loved his money. She loved the attention that marriage to him brought. She loved being able to hug him in front of the TV cameras after he won a tournament. Being with him was never enough, and it showed. Look at pictures: she smiles when he wins, when she knows the camera is watching, and probably when they're shopping. Candid shots, she's not smiling. Because it's not HIM that makes her happy--it's what he can do for HER.
And, as stated before, Tiger is fairly smart, and fairly perceptive. As confusing an emotion as love is, when someone does not love you, you know it. Especially after six years.
I don't think theirs is a happy marriage. To be honest, I don't think it will last. And if it does, I don't think this will be the last we hear of something like this.
To summarize: men cheat because they are unhappy. A happy man does not need the risk of getting caught. Even if it's a small risk. An unhappy man sees the chance to be happy, the upside of which overwhelms the risk assumed if you are caught. And every indication shows that Tiger Woods was not happy.
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