And you know what's the catch? Outside of two of them, and you DEFINITELY can guess which two, each one is critically flawed in some way or another. Ten weeks ago, I wrote this:
The result of the salary cap and the heavy push towards parity in the NFL is that, fairly frequently, you get a league full of teams ranging from "putrid" to "good." It's not hard to be putrid if you're too stupid to know what you're doing (see Millen, Matt). It's VERY, VERY hard in the current NFL to be any better than "good" for an extended period of time. As a result, you see seasons like this one, in which there is no marquee team. Let's break it down:Today? A lot of it still holds water. Though several of those teams took the plunge to the First Half of the rankings (hint: if you're counting something down, you never want to be in the First Half), the facts still remain: what is coming is an overview of the teams who might be making the playoffs, and for the majority of this overview we will be focusing on a lot of negatives. So let's break each team down into positives, negatives, and what it all means.
New Orleans--can't play defense
Baltimore--too inexperienced, defense is aging
Indianapolis--suspect defense, inexperienced WRs, no depth
NY Giants--Manning is the only skill guy on offense I'd put above "role player"
Denver--quarterbacked by Kyle Orton and his "Hand That Rocks The Cradle" beard, head coach is 33 years old
Cincinnati--they're the fucking Bengals, do I need to go into specifics about why you should doubt them?
Minnesota--QB is 40 and interception-prone, WRs are inexperienced, average defense
NY Jets--rookie QB (never a good sign for a playoff run), no dominant rushing attack to take the focus off of said rookie QB
Atlanta--too inexperienced
San Diego--coached by Norv Turner
Green Bay--can't block anyone, defense is inconsistent
Dallas--QB disappears in the clutch, coached by Wade Phillips
New England--QB coming off of major knee surgery, defense is not as good as you think it is, zero rushing game
Chicago--no WRs, defensive captain is on IR
That's my top 14, and if you read just that list, it might as well be my bottom 14. There is no clear-cut favorite this year.
The Flawed Contenders Division
14. Atlanta
Positives: No glaring holes at any position. Tony Gonzalez, who has always been an X-factor, and is in the hunt for the playoffs for pretty much the first time since he was a college basketball player. They're offense is balanced.
Negatives: They can't stop anyone (defense ranks 23rd in points, 28th in total yards, 29th in pass yards, 23rd in rush yards), their starting running back is hurt, their starting quarterback is hurt and his backup ranges from "shaky" to "a goldmine to bet against."
What it all means: They're not that good. Especially if Ryan doesn't come back. But with remaining games against the Jets, Bills and Suckaneers after getting shellacked by New Orleans this weekend? You still can't count them out.
13. Baltimore
Positives: Offense is young and supremely talented. Ray Lewis absolutely scares the bejeezus out of every running back in the league. Their offensive line is very good. Their remaining opponents are the Bears, Lions, Steelers and Raiders--they could very easily sweep that stretch. Ray Rice is absolutely filthy--the best-kept secret in the league is getting out in a hurry.
Negatives: The pass defense has been suspect. Flacco isn't as accurate as you'd want--he's not Jamarcus bad, but he's good for two or three head-scratchers a game. Terell Suggs is hurt. Billy Cundiff is, for lack of a better description, not good. As talented as they are, they just can't seem to put it all together.
What it all means: Against that schedule, they should go 4-0 without much difficulty. But for some reason, they won't. They've got the parts of an elite team, they just aren't sure how to assemble those parts. I'm beginning to suspect that Jim Harbaugh is overmatched as an NFL head coach.
12. New York Giants
Positives: They've got playoff experience. Save for the WRs, they're all the same Giants you've come to know and love the past few years. The offense is top-10 in every way. The defense is barely allowing 300 yards per game.
Negatives: The defense is also ranked 25th in the NFL in points per game. Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning both are having off years. Minnesota in Week 17. They've been ridiculously bad a few times this year.
What it all means: Remaining schedule: Philly, Washington, Carolina, Minnesota. If they don't beat the Iggles, you can pretty much write them off. Also, Carolina in Week 16 feels like a classic Trap Game--the Giants are looking ahead to Minnesota, Carolina's running backs brutalize the Giants, Manning throws a few killer picks, and the entire state of New Jersey goes into catatonic shock. Mark my words.
The Enigma Wrapped Inside A Riddle Division
11. Denver
Positives: Feel-good team of the year. Nobody can cover Brandon Marshall, who is suddenly in a great mood. Their defense is simply filthy (third in the league both by points and yards). Josh McDaniels seems to know what he's doing.
Negatives: Kyle Orton and his Hand That Rocks the Cradle beard are still at the helm. Knowshon Moreno has never heard of something called "consistency"--he either looks like the stud he was in college, or he looks like the second coming of Chicago Cedric Benson. Implosions are as much a December tradition for this team as trees, presents, and Santa. Indy and Philly, both on the road, mean they could easily finish 2-2.
What it all means: I have no idea with them. McDaniels could hold them together. Orton and Moreno could combine to murder them. For gambling purposes, I'm legitimately scared of them, in both a good and bad way.
10. New England
Positives: If I have to outline this, you haven't been watching football the past 10 years.
Negatives: Bill Belicheck seems to be unraveling--both in his coaching decisions, and in how he holds sway over his team. They can't run against good teams. This is not the same defense of the dynasty years.
What it all means: They've got remaining games against Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Houston. And the inside track to the division, with Bad 'Stache Sanchez and company the best competition. They'll make the playoffs. Whether they'll do much more than that, however, remains to be seen.
9. Dallas
Positives: Stastically dominant offense. Defense bends, but doesn't break. On paper, these guys should be really, really good.
Negatives: The games aren't played on paper. Tony Romo is historically bad enough in December that the Football Gods would explode the Earth before allowing him on Denver's roster. Wade Phillips is just as bad, if not worse. Still have San Diego, New Orleans, and Philly on the schedule--the Philly game could be rendered irrelevant after the first two.
What it all means: They'll find a way to piss it all away. They always do.
8. Arizona
Positives: They're peaking at the right time. Their division compares most favorably to the Dumpster behind your neighborhood grocery store. Their receiving corps can't be covered. Kurt Warner has been there, and done that. Twice. Detroit and St. Louis pretty much give them guaranteed wins in Weeks 15 and 16.
Negatives: Their defense is as shreddable as pictures of you with decapitated hookers. The running game doesn't inspire much confidence. They got waay too lucky last year to do it again.
What it all means: They're in the same boat as the Patriots--they do some things very well, some other things not at all; they're going to be VERY overrated by a lot of people coming into the playoffs soley based on experience; they WILL be there because, well, someone's gotta represent their divisions; and they will not make it far once they get there because, well, they're not all that great this year.
7. Green Bay
Positives: The roster is stacked. The offense is balanced and good. The defense is playing better than anyone else right now--and have consistently been the best in the league at forcing turnovers. They're peaking at exactly the right time.
Negatives: Aaron Rodgers has never played a playoff game. The defense is banged up. The offensive line put on a historically bad performance for half a season, and if they revert to that form this team is going nowhere. Mike McCarthy is very quietly a possible choking point for them. Minnesota's presence means they'll have to play on the road in January. Probably in Minnesota if they can beat Arizona or Whoever Wins the East. And Minnesota made them look bad twice.
What it all means: I really hope this is the year. I hope the offense is for real. I hope the line can hold together. I hope Rodgers can will himself to outplaying Favre when it counts. I hope the defense can will themselves to outplaying Favre when it counts. I legitimately can hope for all of those things, which is a lot better than could be said the last time I did these Power Rankings. But "possibly" doesn't mean "will."
The Dark Horses Division
6. Philadelphia
Positives: They have no glaring weaknesses. They're still the favorites in the East despite surviving the Kevin Kolb Era. 2-0 so far against DAL and NYG with a game against each remaining, so they control their own destiny.
Negatives: Hey, it's not like McNabb is known for getting the yips in the playoffs, right? They control their own destiny, but also could shoot themselves in the foot if they don't beat at least one of those teams--on the road, mind you. The other games (home agaisnt SF and DEN) are hardly picnics. Without Brian Westbrook, the running game has been very spotty.
What it all means: I think they pull out the division. Their "dark horse" status hinges on Westbrook returning healthy for the playoffs. Their defense is good enough to take them places--if McNabb can avoid the dry heaves.
5. Cincinatti
Positives: The division is pretty much locked up. Cedric Benson is the best comeback player since Kurt Warner. Despite the attitude, Chad Ochocinco is one of the most driven players and best leaders in the league. They've stayed healthy all season.
Negatives: The last time they were in this position, the Steelers eked into the playoffs and shattered their dreams along with Carson Palmer's ACL. They're still the Bengals, and that's worth a mention here. They have games remaining against Minnesota and San Diego--ruh roh.
What it all means: Regardless of how it turns out, this team is the feel-good story of the year. As opposed to two years ago, when they were the jail-good story of the year.
The "History's Not On Their Side" Division
4. Minnesota
Positives: Best offensive line in football. Best defensive line in football. Their quarterback knows how to win. Percy Harvin's kick-return skills could swing a playoff game or two. And oh, by the way, their running back is the best player in all of football.
Negatives: Favre hasn't exactly been Mr. January (or December, for that matter) this decade. Peterson coughs up the ball too much. Their pass defense is very quitely subpar (21st in the league). They looked very beatable against Arizona last week--this is NOT the time to be regressing. Favre is way overdue to blow a game--not a good thing heading into the playoffs.
What it all means: Take it from someone who let Aging Favre sucker him in during 2007: this will NOT end well. There are way too many things that can go wrong with these guys to consider them the team to beat.
3. San Diego
Positives: Peaking at the right time, and riding high at this point. Phillip Rivers is an absolute stud. Cromartie and Jammer are tough to throw against. Darren Sproles is an X-factor in the return game.
Negatives: LaDanian Tomlinson's face is still running on milk cartons. They can't stop the run. Norv Turner always finds a way to kill his teams. They seriously have zero run game.
What it all means: Ignore your friend who is betting on them to finally pull through this year. They're a sexy pick, as on fire as they've been, but with the right matchup and line you could make a killing betting against them in the Divisional round.
The Clear-Cut Favorites Division
2. Indianapolis
Positives: Peyton Manning is a straight-up assassin at this point in his career. Reggie Wayne is the best wideout in football. They can pass and score at will. They're outscoring opponents by an unheard-of 11 points per game.
Negatives: They can't run the ball. Their defense gives up a lot of yards. They haven't really been tested in any close games this year. Really, that's all I've got.
What it all means: They're simply unstoppable. I don't see anyone in the AFC who can beat them.
1. New Orleans
Positives: Drew Brees and Manning are head and shoulders above everyone else. Their rushing attack is surprisingly potent (5th in the league). They've won pretty, they've won ugly, they've won blowouts, they've won coming from behind, they've won nail-biters--this team can win in every way imaginable.
Negatives: Their defense ranks 18th overall in the league. They're dealing with some injuries. They have zero playoff experience. They've let some inferior teams walk on them early in games, before bouncing back--that trick won't work with Minnesota, Philly, Green Bay or (God forbid) Indy.
What it all means: They're one of two picks you can reasonably make to win it all. And I'm saying they do.
Let the bitching and moaning commence.
There's shocking news in the sports betting world.
ReplyDeleteIt's been said that any bettor must watch this,
Watch this now or stop placing bets on sports...
Sports Cash System - Automated Sports Betting Software.