Your 2012 NFL Preview

Tonight, Eli Manning and Tony HRomo take center stage for the NFL opener.  If you're like me, you think last year's opener was a lot better.  Packers-Saints delivered exactly what you want from the first real NFL game of the season: exciting, high-flying football.  The Giants and Cowboys have, for a few years now, been in the category of "talented teams who are just boring to watch."  Neither one is a big play team, save for Dallas when Miles Austin decides to ramp it up.  Their quarterbacks can be best described as "very good but not spectacular."  It's not Browns-Cardinals, but it's sure as hell not Packers-Saints.

One paragraph in and already we're mostly complaining?  You know it.  Last season I watched my team put together either #1 or #1A on the "Most Dominating Regular Seasons of All-Time" list (the '07 Pats hold the other spot and, as far as I'm concerned, there's really no right answer to who should go where).  Then the playoffs came around, we drew the worst possible matchup available in the divisional round, and everything fell apart.  But more on that in the NFC North section.

It's a great year for football, provided you don't live in the Bayou.  Let's get to it.

AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. Miami Dolphins

What a train wreck from 2-4.  I ranked the Bills 2nd mostly by process of elimination.  Miami was always going to be 4th, and I can't say I have high hopes for the Ryan Tannehill Experiment.  In fact, 2011 Blaine Gabbert (or, "subfunctionally terrible") seems to be the high end of expectations for him.  I'd advise Dolphin fans to make sure they're at least a six-pack-and-a-half deep into the Land Shark before gametime.

And what can be said about the New York Jets quarterback situation?  Mark Sanchez seems to perform well when put under the microscope, doesn't he?  He's gonna be Monday Morning Quarterbacked more this season than anyone in history.  And all because of the presence of the luckiest little choirboy in league history.  Tim Tebow, whose passing numbers seem to suggest he'd be better suited running the occasional reverse option pass lined up as a wide receiver, whose trade offer was met with crickets, who is like Mark Sanchez only the exact opposite, will be chomping at the bit to get out of the cockamamie Wildcat stunt they've got him pulling.  Can you imagine what happens if Sanchez falters AND fucks another high school girl?  With waiting-for-marriage puritan Tebow behind him on the depth chart?  The cloud of smug coming from the NY sports media might choke the entire Northeast.  Don't rule it out.

The Patriots will win this division unless Tom Brady and Ryan Mallett both get hurt.  And even then they might be fine if they trade for someone passable.

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Pittsburgh Steelers*
3. Cincinatti Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns

I think the Ravens finish ahead of the Steelers, but I'd respect either pick.  It's basically a coin flip.  Ray Rice takes anyone on the Pittsburgh side of the argument--he's been quietly one of the best backs in the league for years, and people are now just starting to realize it.  I think Joe Flacco is not a superstar, but better than Trent Dilfer, and the rest of this year's Ravens team is better than the Trent Dilfer Superbowl team.

I think The Red Rocket bites the sophomore slump a bit.  I think, long-term, he's gonna be a great player (and the three-way competitive potential in this division should have you excited provided you don't live in Cleveland--and if you live in Cleveland you probably shouldn't be excited about anything anyway) but it's gonna take a few years to get to that point.  Josh Freeman went through it.  This division is gonna be fun for years.

And the Browns are gonna be fun too, but for an entirely different reason.  A 28-year-old rookie throwing to Mohammed Massaquoi?  I'm pretty sure Hell's sports bar is going to be showing a lot of Browns highlights this season.

AFC South
1. Houston Texans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Tennessee Titans

Like the AFC East, only the teams have different names and there's no Tebow.  The Colts aren't going to be great, but Andrew Luck is going to be a lot better than Blaine Gabbert or Jake Locker, and the Colts should rebound back to mediocre at the worst.

I'm not sold on Locker at this point.  At all.  He's not a good fit for a modern offense.  He can't run, he's inaccurate, and he's not crafty enough in the pocket--and his offensive line sucks something awful.  In fact, let's do a quick QB comparison throughout the division

Matt Schaub - Jeff Garcia.  Makes enough sense to me.  Both didn't get starting jobs until later in their careers, both had pretty admirable success with those starting jobs, neither was particularly spectacular on their own but both could bring out the best in superstar teammates.  And could you imagine the awkwardness in Texas if the Texans started winning, and Schaub had a gay rumor start circulating?  Especially in Texas, in an election year?  That's a recipe for hilarity.  Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme were also considered, but Schaub/Garcia both had higher ceilings in their peak than those two.

Andrew Luck - John Elway  He hasn't played an NFL down yet.  I could pick from any one of a dozen different quarterbacks, and the comparison would work.  Peyton Manning, John Elway... Ryan Leaf.  Personally, I think he ends up closer to the first two.  But it's too soon to tell.

Blaine Gabbert - Charlie Batch.  The good news is, Gabbert can't be much worse than last year.  The bad news is, unless he's markedly better the Jaguars aren't going anywhere.  Christian Ponder has at least had moments where he seems capable.  Yo Gabba Gabbert just seems overmatched.

Jake Locker - Bubby Brister.  Both big, strong-armed quarterbacks who struggle to hit the target.  Bubby was an anachronism when he played, and that was 15 years ago.  You just can't survive in today's NFL unless you can hit open receivers, no matter how pretty your deep ball is an how physically gifted you are.  Locker has always underperformed to what he was supposed to do, and that's not a good sign.  Remember when the Titans were one yard away from the Super Bowl?  I don't think most of their fan base will by the time they get back.

AFC West
1. Oakland Raiders
2. Denver Broncos*
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. San Diego Chargers

This was, by far, the hardest division to handicap thus far.  Personally, I'm rooting for the whole division to go 8-8.  What fun would that be.  In the meantime, the top three teams all have major injury problems at the quarterback and/or running back position(s).  Denver might not have injury problems at running back, but the fact that Peyton Manning is returning from experimental surgery and might be one hard hit away from never being able to walk again cancels out any feelings of comfort this might cause Denver fans to experience.  Oakland's got two fragile signal-callers, followed by Terelle Pryor on the depth chart--or, as he's been described, "The Poor Man's Jamarcus Russell."  Oof.

San Diego has to bottom out one of these years.  They've been consistently good while skirting the "don't pair a shaky coach with a shaky quarterback" law that governs football.  They could get away with it when LT was carrying the load.  Ryan Mathews is not LT, and he's the third running back in this division to have serious injury concerns.

And because the whole "compare the QBs" bit was so fun last time around, let's keep it going.  But let's change up what we're comparing the QBs to.  This time?  Characters from Animal House

Carson Palmer/Jason Campbell - Otter and Boone.  Worth more as a pair than either one individually, much like everyone assumes that each of these two are going to start at least five games, and probably no more than eight.  Each one is infinitely less valuable without the other one.

Peyton Manning - The Horse That Has a Heart Attack in the Dean's Office.  This one should be obvious.  Plus, Peyton has a bit of a horse face going on.  Sweet deal.

Matt Cassell - Mrs. Wormer.  Crazy, unpredictable, likely to be wheeled off the field in a shopping cart.  Also, Tyler Palko is Flounder.

Phillip Rivers - Marmalard.  Was this choice of comparison just a thinly veiled excuse to make the Rivers-Marmalard comparison?  You bet it was.  Does the Manning/Horse comparison and the Palko/Flounder comparison completely validate this?  You bet it does.

AFC Playoffs
Steelers over Raiders
Broncos over Texans

Patriots over Broncos
Steelers over Ravens

Patriots over Steelers

I like Manning to pull the upset over Schaub, who's painfully thin on playoff experience.  And I think whoever loses the division in the North wins if there's a playoff rematch.  But I'm taking the Ravens over the Patriots if that happens.  For the record.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. New York Giants
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Washington Redskins

I'm watching Cowboys/Giants right now.  The Giants just lost a fumble.  Their backup running back, David Wilson, looks terrible--if Bradshaw goes down, the team is screwed.

I love the Eagles as a post-hype pick.  If Michael Vick stays healthy, there's no way they don't win this division.  That's a big "if," though.  And two Vick-RG3 matchups sound fun to watch.  That's all I got--this division is like the AFC West without all the fun unpredictablity.  The Giants and Cowboys both have been "better than average" forever, and the Giants somehow snuck two Super Bowls out of that.

Quarterback - Cartoon Dog (yes, this was intentional)

Michael Vick - Wile E. Coyote.  Technically, the coyote is a member of the canine family.  Vick's speed, propensity to get splattered, and occasionally evil personality are a perfect fit here.

Eli Manning - Droopy.  Two Super Bowl rings, and not even Giants fans can get excited for Eli.

Tony Romo - Brian Griffin.  Has been crazily overrated since about 2008.  Nobody really likes them anymore, but since they're established they're not going anywhere.  Much to the chagrin of much of their franchise's fan base.  Brian getting verbally smacked down by Quagmire was the equivalent of Romo's season-ending injury.

RGIII - Dino.  Hyperactive and his family/fan base loves him, but he's a rookie so he's gonna do a lot of dumb things.  Like Dino.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Detroit Lions*
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings

If the Packers can avoid matching up with the Giants in January again, we're going to the Super Bowl.  Don't start with me about the Lions winning the division.  We own the Lions, and we made that abundantly clear last year.  Jay Cutler is good, but he's very clearly a cut or three below Rodgers and Stafford.  And the Vikings are just praying for something to infect the waters of Lake Michigan and hit all three teams.

Quarterback - Fast Food Chain

Aaron Rodgers - In & Out Burger.  Other than my fiancee and my mom, the two things I truly love.  Moving to San Diego, I have to say I approve of In & Out.  I could have two Animal Style Double-Doubles for every meal.  In the lettuce wrap every once in a while for variety.

Matthew Stafford - Starbucks.  Very good, but also very, very overpriced.  Stafford's contract is a fucking toilet, and I feel bad for Lions fans if he ever suffers a serious injury.  Wait, no I don't.

Jay Cutler - Subway.  You could do a lot worse, but you know that the bread is below average and the fixin's have all been sitting out for goddamn ever.  Like you know that Cutler is a total tool, and he has bouts of colorblindedness.

Christian Ponder - Taco John's.  Dude, fuck Taco John's.  It's a blander, more expensive, more taco-shit-inducing version of T-Bell.  There is absolutely no reason to ever go to Taco Johns, and there is no reason Christian Ponder should be starting for an NFL team.

NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. New Orleans Saints*
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers

Fun fact: Matt Ryan has started all but two of his teams games since being drafted, while playing a position that frequently takes a beating.  Fun fact: Matt Ryan's backup is an undrafted rookie named Dominique Davis.  These two things could be very relevant at some point this season.

In the bounty scandal, the guy I feel the worst for is Drew Brees.  He deserves to be playing with a contender this year--instead, I see the Saints just barely making the playoffs, if at all.

I think Josh Freeman is way better than he looked last year.  Similarly, I think Cam Newton will look way below what he's going to end up turning into.  Or get hurt.  Or both.  The Panthers almost need to suck for a year or two to get him some supporting cast.

Quarterback - Character from Breaking Bad

Matt Ryan - Jesse Pinkman.  Both came out of school a little bit rough, but have matured admirably over the past five seasons.  Both have/had a nickname ("Matty Ice" and "Captain Cook") that they thoroughly do/did not deserve, but still sounds sweet.  I don't know if Ryan could pull off casually dropping the word "bitch" into every phrase, though.

Drew Brees - Walter White.  He is the danger.

Josh Freeman - Agent Hank Schroeder.  Both had setbacks recently (Freeman's sophomore year, Hank's struggle to walk again).  Both are primed for a breakthrough.  Both are in position to have a long-coming payoff in this coming season.

Cam Newton - Mike Ehrmentrout.  The guy who cleans up the messes.  Consummate badass.  By the way, if we're continuing the QB/BB comparison, Brett Favre is Hector Salamanca.  And his penis is the little fly that Walt and Jesse almost killed each other over in that one Season 3 episode.

NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals

Yeah... the Castro district is hopping on I-5, lit torches and pitchforks hanging out the window, and coming for my anal cherry after this one.  So be it.  The Niners outplayed their point differential by a large margin last year while getting an insane jump in production from their quarterback.  They're standing to face a huge overcorrection this year.  Sorry, Frisco.

(Wait, the Packers are playing San Fran this weekend?  I take it all back.  They're the best young team in the NFL, and they're making their Super Bowl run this year!  Alex Smith is gonna use the Manning saga as motivation, and take over the league!  I believe!  And they're DEFINITELY going to roll the Packers this weekend.  Smith is going to leave NO DOUBT who won the 2005 draft!)

Quarterback - '90s TV Comedy

Sam Bradford - That '70s Show.  On the one hand, they feel criminally overrated.  They match up well head to head with the rest of the division, but just don't really fit in the "best around" discussion.

Russell Wilson - The Simpsons.  Discriminated against for their unorthodoxy.  The Simpsons was animated, Wilson was short.  Only The Flintstones and Doug Flutie had managed to buck those trends in the past.  Having watched him at Wisconsin, I can say that Wilson will be much better than Flutie.  But, like The Simpsons, he'll have to reach "all-time great" status before he gets any respect.

Alex Smith - Frasier.  If Bradford/70s is criminally underrated, Smith/Frasier is criminally overrated.  After the amount of suckitude Smith showed for years, it's gonna take more than one good year before I start giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Kevin Kolb/John Skelton - The Chevy Chase Show/The Magic Hour.  Yes, I know they were both talk shows.  I couldn't think of a regular comedy show that accurately described this two-headed trainwreck.  Besides, I dare you to think of a more appropriate comparison in this whole column.

NFC Playoffs
Eagles over Saints
Lions over Rams

Packers over Lions
Eagles over Falcons

Packers over Eagles

Disregard this whole damn thing if Michael Vick gets hurt.

Super Bowl
Packers over Patriots

We're getting several Super Bowls out of the Rodgers era.  Here's one more.

Awards
MVP: Aaron Rodgers
OPoY: Rodgers
DPoY: Nnamdi Asomugha
ORoY: Russell Wilson
DRoY: Fletcher Cox
CPoY: Peyton Manning
CoY: Bill Belichek