Know When to Fold 'Em, NFL.

Dear NFL Management,

Over the past several weeks of the preseason, you have locked out your referees.  I'm telling you here: you need to reverse course.  This week's announcement that the replacement refs would continue into at least Week 1 of the regular season was not good news for anyone--lest of all, you.  Like I said--reverse course.  You're not going to like the one you're headed down.

If you would, please look back on America roughly a century ago.  What were the Big Three of sports?  Baseball, boxing, and horse racing.  A hundred years later, baseball remains--joined instead by basketball and football.

Boxing's demise, in particular, is one that needs to be highlighted.  The sport alienated itself with one too many punch-drunk, enfeebled old man hobbling around with visible brain damage.  Young athletes saw this, and steered clear of boxing en masse.  The talent pool dried up, and the interest followed--America is only very mildly interested in watching the best of Eastern Europe and the Caribbean slug it out for world supremacy.  A century ago, would Kevin Durant be a heavyweight champion with devastating quickness, an explosive hook, and the best reach in history?  Absolutely.  A century from now, will Future Devin Hester be a punt returner risking his mental facilities on every play, or will he be a sneaky-effective goal scorer for the Chicago Xplosion of National Championship Lacrosse?

Either the NFL is blissfully unaware of how precariously close it hangs to losing national interest, or it is woefully overplaying its hand.  The fact is, the show cannot go on without the officials.  The replacement refs suck something awful.  We all know it.  And not only are they embarrassing to watch, they're missing calls like crazy.  Pass interference has become a giant crapshoot.  A shoddily-called game is a safety risk to players--the rules are largely there in place to protect them, and misenforcement causes confusion and weakens the effectiveness of the rulebook.

Yet, despite the safety concerns, the NFL is proceeding with the scabs.  A year after playing chicken with the Players' Union, to much hate and discontent from the fan base.  Said Players' Union, by the way, is none too impressed with being hung out to dry by the league in regards to safety.  Will the players strike?  Doubtful.  But the fact that it's even been put on the table at some point is utter lunacy.

You'd think, for all the trouble, that the refs were making an exorbitant demand.  That figure?  $2.5 million per year more in salaries, plus a pension plan.  That works out to a raise of just under $25k a year for each ref; per team the cost breaks up to just under $80k.  Or, one rookie roster bonus.

Singing about poker, Kenny Rogers said you "gotta know when to hold 'em; know when to fold 'em."  The NFL has no hand, and the world knows it.  They have precious little to gain, and everything to lose.  Each second they stonewall is another pull at the trigger in a crazy one-man game of Russian Roulette.

In fact, if the refs were smart, they'd come right back over the top.  "We've been watching the preseason, we KNOW that you need us.  The replacements are not getting the job done.  We know it, you know it, the fans know it, the players know it, the media knows it.  The emperor has no clothes.  We're upping our demands to $5 million.  Don't you dare say the league can't afford it.  The league can't afford NOT to do it."

Roger Goodell should come to his senses before this happens.

The NFL is in a terribly precarious position, as boxing was at one point.  If the league manages it's public relations well, makes a real commitment to player safety, and  does what is necessary to keep the game safe, competitive, and entertaining (which might, at some point, involve widening the field--but that's a whole 'nother column), they can keep the golden goose alive.

But it all starts here.  A show of good faith towards the men who keep the peace on the field might pay itself back many multiples over the long run.