Dissecting the NFL Season and picking for Week 10

Interesting results in ESPN SportsNation's mid-season poll today.
-Four of the eight divisions in the NFL are already 90% certain or better. And Arizona's 89.2% basically makes it five of eight. The lesson? Evening the economic playing field does not guarantee parity. It just evens the economic playing field. As Eric Mangini and co. prove, you just can't fix stupid.
-The best percentage for a team finishing third in their division's poll? The New York Football Giants, with 5.4%. In second behind them? The Dolphins, with 2%. The lesson? It's a very top-and-bottom-heavy league this year. The best teams are really, really good; and the worst teams suck something awful.
-The Cardinals are given 89.2% in their division, and 1.8% in the NFC altogether. The lesson? The NFC West sucks. Hard.
-The Vikings are second to the Saints in the "who will win the NFC" poll, but lead the "who will win the Super Bowl" poll. The lesson? Brett Favre cannot be beaten in the Super Bowl.

The disparity in the league is a mixed blessing. As entertaining as the first half of the season has been, the second half probably won't keep up that excitement. Most divisions should be clinched with a few weeks to spare. And the dregs of the league have little chance against anyone competitive, so the odds of seeing a playoff race spoiled by a plucky underdog are not good.

On that uplifting note, let's get to the picks.

Bears (+3.5) over 49ers
Can't believe the Niners can be favored after losing four games in a row against anyone not from St. Louis or Cleveland. Gregg Easterbrook's analysis of the Niners three weeks in a row now (kowtowing to Michael Crabtree sent the team the message that the team-first approach of Mike Singletary was all a load of bullshit) is looking more accurate every week.

Jaguars (+7) over JETS
I smell another Mark Sanchez clunker. Every few weeks he's good for a completion percentage in the 40s, three or more picks, and a QB rating below the Derek Anderson Line. Just a hunch he's due for another one.

Broncos (-4.5) over REDSKINS
Dan Snyder is about three weeks away from outlawing booing at any home games. But hey, any time you're 2-4 against teams entering the game with no wins, it's just not your year.

Bengals (+7) over STEELERS
Both teams are 6-2, the Bengals won the first matchup, but the Steelers are favored by 7? Really? Seems kind of high. Steelers win by 3, but fail to cover.

TITANS (-7) over Bills
It is Thursday afternoon, and it would not surprise me in the slightest if a Bills assistant just told a surprised Dick Jauron that Vince Young, not Kerry Collins, is now starting for the Titans.

(In other words, the Bills might be the worst-coached team not involving Art Shell in recent memory, and the odds of them having a successful game plan to stop Young are about the same odds of Jauron getting struck by lightning on the sideline.)

VIKINGS (-16.5) over Lions
These next two lines are a combined 31 points. And you know what? They could be a combined 60 points and I still wouldn't blink on either one. I predict multiple interceptions for Matt Stafford, a four-sack performance from Jared Allen, and a Daunte Culpepper sighting before the end of the third quarter.

Saints (-14.5) over RAMS
Actually, let's adjust this line a little bit to make it fair.

Saints (-35) over RAMS
Better. The Rams would be a contending team in the Sun Belt Conference, maybe. They're about four or five great drafts away. I mean, without Steven Jackson, who else do they have that starts for more than two or three other teams around the league--if that?

PANTHERS (+3) over Falcons
Yes, Jake Delhomme scares me. But the Carolina rushing attack against the Falcons' rush defense scares me more.

Buccaneers (+10) over DOLPHINS
This one doesn't feel like it's getting any further than 7 points either way. And Josh Freeman might be competent. Luckily, we've got a mega-high line to toy with this week while we figure it out.

Chiefs (+1.5) over RAIDERS
I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Seahawks (+9) over CARDINALS
The Seahawks aren't that bad. Take out the Seneca Wallace era, and they're right in the division hunt. Worth mentioning.

CHARGERS (+1) over Eagles
This line is Vegas's way of throwing it's hands up in the air and saying "We have no idea who will win this game." Even when he was lying on the ground concussed, Brian Westbrook looked more alive than LaDanian Tomlinson most weeks. But I see Rivers airing it out early and often for the win in this one.

PACKERS (+3) over Cowboys
Aaron Rodgers on a mission a week after throwing three picks? Check. Mark Tauscher back in the lineup after missing the second half last week? Check. Tony Romo, yipping and ready to throw this one away if it's close? Check. Wade Phillips, ready to make enough questionable calls to give Romo said opportunity to choke? Check.

COLTS (-2.5) over Patriots
The Patriots are good. But the Colts are on another level in the AFC this year. I'm riding them until they prove me wrong.

Ravens (-11) over BROWNS
Monday Night Football's first snoozer of the year. The third line that can't be high enough this week. I predict the return of Brady Quinn at some point in this game.