Hey, you didn't think I'd let another major sports season slip by without taking the opportunity to arbitrarily rank teams in a slightly different way than everyone else? Of course not! A month into the season, we can look back at some surprises and some not-so-surprises, and pretend that some predictions never happened. You hear me? At no point did I say that I liked the Doug Davis signing!
Anyways,
The Alan Trammell Division
30. Houston
Yipes. I knew that the 2003 National League All-Stars would be bad. Never would have pegged them as this bad. Offensively, they rank dead last in almost every major offensive category. Geoff Blum, Michael Bourn, and Jeff Keppinger are the only Astros with at least 50 at-bats and a .250 batting average. Kaz Matsui, JR Towles, and Lance Berkman both lag behind the Mendoza line. At this point, neither Berkman nor Matsui will even be able to be traded for prospects.
29. Baltimore
I think we can call the Jim Johnson Era a resounding failure. Kinda like Jim Johnson's ERA. Which currently sits at 6.52.
28. Pittsburgh
10-2 in games decided by two runs or less. What does that mean? That they've been getting incredibly lucky. With that incredible luck, they are still three games below .500. Things can only get worse from here.
27. Cleveland
AAAA
26. Arizona
At his current pace, Kelly Johnson will finish the season with 53 home runs. There are only three problems with this projection:
1. It is not 1996.
2. Kelly Johnson's name is not Brady Anderson
3. Kelly Johnson is (presumably) not taking gratuitous amounts of HGH.
25. Kansas City
Dear Zach Greinke: We are truly, truly sorry that a player of your caliber is wasting his time losing 2-1 games for this shitshow of a franchise. Your potential for a contender is simply astounding--instead, you'll be forced to spend the next half decade or so churning out Cy Young-level performances for a team that will not top fourth place in the division. Please don't overcompensate by signing with the Yankees at that point. Love, Baseball fans across the nation.
24. Chicago White Sox
Cut from the same Hitless Wonders cloth as the previously-discussed Astros. Two thirds of their everyday lineup is hitting below .250. The only things keeping them this far up the rankings are Jake Peavy's dominance and Paul Konerko's power.
23. Atlanta
Like some of the other teams listed to this point, the Braves are getting zero production from a large chunk of their lineup. Like some of the other teams listed to this point, the Braves have three starters with an ERA higher than 5.50. But they do have Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and Tommy Hanson. So at least the people of Hotlanta have hope that they'll be back on top of the division in a few years.
22. Washington
Yes, here I am ranking a team with a winning record 22nd. When it's the team picked 30th overall in the pre-season, and their winning record is largely thanks to a league-leading seven one-run wins, excuse me for not being optimistic. As long as Jason Marquis is their number two starter, they aren't sniffing .500 at the end of the year.
Fatally Flawed
21. Seattle
Probably my second-worst preseason prediction: thinking that the M's would be a team to reckon with. Problem? Franklin Gutierrez and Casey Kotchman are tied for the team lead in home runs... with 3 apiece. The team's combined OPS is .638, which is quite craptastic. The silver lining? Doug Fister and Jason Vargas each have 5 quality starts out of 6, and King Felix has 5 of 7. Meanwhile, Brandon League has emerged as one of the best set-up men in the game. If only they could get a lead for him to set up.
20. Chicago Cubs
You'll notice that I've ranked the teams into categories. The "Fatally Flawed" is composed of generally good teams with one glaring, defining weakness. The Mariners couldn't hit. The Cubs can't keep people from hitting. Particularly if Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva can't keep up their uncharacteristically hot starts--and I wouldn't bet on it--they could be in real trouble. And we haven't even touched on the Zambrano debacle.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
A far more extreme version of the Cubs. Ryan Braun is making a legitimate MVP candidacy, Casey McGehee is putting up solid numbers, and of the regulars only Alciedes Escobar's average is below .250. Meanwhile, the pitching staff beyond Yovanni Gallardo and the surprisingly lights-out Carlos Villanueva is otherworldly bad. Trevor Hoffman has 5 saves, 4 blown saves, and an ERA in the double digits. Time to gently take the car keys away.
18. Angels
Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders are straight-up killing this team. A playoff contender for pretty much the past decade, the Angels sit five games below .500, largely because those two starters are a combined 2 for 12 in getting quality starts. The offense, besides Kendry Morales, has been passable, but not good enough. These guys are underachieving, and I'm not entirely sure that they've got the team to turn it around this year. Vladdy Guerrero is long gone, folks.
17. Los Angeles Dodgers
Like their crosstown neighbors, these guys have underwhelmed in April. 14-17, and injured Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcals haven't really helped. Nor has Matt Kemp's regression back to "above average" after a breakout year. Andre Ethier deserves a mention for having an absolutely torrid April, though.
Reports Of Their Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
16. Colorado
Hanging around in a division that seems to have largely inverted preseason expectations. Meaning that there's a good chance that three or four teams might be going down to the wire. Ian Stewart has emerged as a legitimate fantasy threat, much to my dynasty team's delight. Ubaldo Jimenez has emerged as a legitimate All-Star. Jhoulys Chacin looked unhittable in his first two starts. If they can convince Todd Helton that it's 2002 again, a Rocktober revival might be possible. Though that's a pretty big "if." They're a team to watch in the next few years though.
15. Cincinatti
Speaking of my dynasty league, I managed to pick up Mike Leake in the 12th round of our inaugural prospect draft. And so far, he's looking like the best player to skip the minor leagues since John Olerud and Jim Abbott both did it in 1989. The other players since then to attempt the feat? Darren Dreifort and Chan Ho Park both with the '94 Dodgers (both started off good, got overpaid, and stopped caring/being healthy), Ariel Prieto with the '95 A's (also see: Train Wreck), and Xavier Nady in 2000 with the Padres. Improbably, Leake has the Reds in second place in the NL Central.
Now, for the top half of the rankings, you are going to have to wait until tomorrow night. Why, you ask? Because I'm going to need something to plug tomorrow on the radio!
Yes, that's right. My good friend Mike Winski hosts an MLB-themed radio show every Tuesday and Thursday at noon, central time for the UW-Oshkosh radio station, WRST. Tomorrow, I will be on as his guest. If you happen to live in Oshkosh, tune in to 90.3 at noon to listen. If you don't live in Oshkosh, don't worry about being left out--you can still hear by going to the WRST website and clicking the "Listen Now" link in the top right corner. I think they allow call-ins, so feel free to do that.
Until then: enjoy yourself, bitches.
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