NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend

BENGALS (-2.5) over Jets
Don't be a hero, Billy. Yes, I know the Jets are the cute pick. Yes, I know everyone loves them because of their miracle finish to improbably sneak into the playoffs. Yes, I know you really want to be the guy who bought into the Cinderella story at the ground floor. But before you pick the Jets, put yourself in this position.

There are five minutes to play in the fourth quarter. The Jets are down by four, starting deep in their own territory, and Mark Sanchez breaks the huddle. He's seven of twenty five for ninety yards and three interceptions, and he looks like he's going to shit himself walking to the line. You're bargaining your soul for a guarantee that he will hand the ball off. But he's dropping back to pass, and the rush is coming, and he's trying to force the ball through double coverage to Braylon Edwards...

You just broke a cold sweat? Don't blame you. Just remember, for every heartwarming Cinderella story there are a million poor girls who went to the ball and stood around with their girlfriends all night. It's not often that you get such a gift-wrapped cash bundle as "rookie QB with a penchant for turning in absolute stink bombs on the road." Take it. Take it and run.

Eagles (+4) over COWBOYS
Holy crap, it's the Shaky Playoff Coach/Quarterback Bowl! Wade Phillips/Tony Romo vs. Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb is like the epic series of Edge & Christian vs. Hardy Boyz tag-team matches the WWF put on in the late '90s and early '00s, except the complete opposite.

I waffled on this pick for a good five minutes. On the one hand, an Iggles win sets the stage for a Packers/Vikings second-round matchup, and I really don't think the Football Gods are cruel enough to let that happen--whichever fan base loses would effectively shut down at life for a good month. On the other hand, the Cowboys and Bengals look like an easy same-day two-team teaser. And we all know that the Football Gods hate easy two-team teasers.

So what's the X-factor here? Philadelphia's turnover differential of +15 is good for second in the NFC. Dallas's +1 is good for eighth in the conference, and second-last of the six playoff teams. I predict a close game punctuated by several coaching and quarterbacking errors, with a crucial Romo interception in crunch time icing it.

PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Ravens
As you know, I love the Ravens. But I think they're a year away. I think these teams meet again in the playoffs next year, and the Ravens take the torch. But this feels like one of those ugly, fluky games that Belichek's teams always find a way to win.

Packers (+1) over CARDINALS
Telling Sign #1: The Packers and Cardinals met once in the regular season (last week) and once in the pre-season. Both times, the Packer starters absolutely shit on the Cards when they were in. I'm talking snuff-film level domination. Even Buffalo Bill felt bad for the Arizona secondary. Prisoners in Gitmo watching the game thought the Packers were being too cruel. I can go on all night.

Telling Sign #2: Know how I mentioned that the Eagles ranked second in turnover differential? Guess who ranked first? Know how I mentioned that the Cowboys ranked second-last? Guess who ranked last?

Telling Sign #3: Green Bay to finish the season: 7-1. Arizona to finish the season: 3-3.

Telling Sign #4: A Packers-Vikings rematch would be the most hyped non-Super-Bowl of all time. If David Stern were running the NFL, Dick Bavetta, Bennett Salvatore and Tim Donaghy would be working this game. No doubt about it.