New Rules and Divisional Picks

I'm a fan of Bill Maher.  I have been for quite a long time.  Though I don't really agree with his ultraliberal political views, and I think he can be a bit condescending at times, I find him to be one of the most genuine people on television today.  In fact, I've even got a quote of his on my Facebook page.

"I'm the guy who thinks religion is bad and drugs are good. I think children aren't innocent, God doesn't write books, and Jesus wasn't a Republican. I think girls hate each other, no doesn't mean no and being drunk is funny. I'm for mad cow disease, how am I gonna win that? I'm against suing tobacco companies. I think abstinence is a perversion. I think Bush's lies are worse than Clinton's. I think Vegas was better when it was run by the mob. I think men are only as loyal as their options. I think stereotypes are true and rehab is for quitters."--Bill Maher

Though I might disagree with him on a lot of issues (mostly relating to government-run healthcare, or government-run anything for that matter), that quote comes as close to describing my feelings about life as anybody.  So in honor of Maher (and in an effort to reverse the stinking karma of the 0-4 turd I laid a week ago), let's preface this week's Divisional Round picks with some New Rules.

New Rule: If you are a fat chick sticking to her New Year's Resolution to lose weight, please make sure that your shirt is long enough.
I was inspired to create this one the other day at the gym.  This is the worst time of year to work out in a gym*--all the doughy types who have sat around for 11 months make the same, tired resolution they make every year: to work out more.  Like always, it never lasts.  But for two or three weeks, you get treated to the tragicomedy of them looking quizzically at exercise machines like Derek Zoolander looking at a computer, waddling around the track, looking longingly at the smoothie bar (which is closed down for Winterim, a tragically shortsighted business decision), and--in rare, but observed cases--chain-smoking outside in between workouts.  Depending on what kind of mood you're in and how busy it is otherwise, this can alternate between "the peak of hilarity" and "the peak of frustration."

There is nothing worse than That Girl, though.  Since her attractive friends are all wearing tight T-shirts and short shorts (side note: no complaints from me about this), she has to do the same to fit in.  The inseam of the shorts has been swallowed up by her thunder thighs.  Her FUPA is threatening to emerge from a T-shirt that was NOT designed to restrain such a monster (sometimes, it's doing more than "threatening."  Ugh).  And may God help you if you happen to be running past when she's stretching...

Here's the thing.  I'm not an unreasonable guy.  I was much happier before I had to look at you on a regular basis, but I can live with it.  Just please, promise that you'll cover up.  Getting in shape is awesome, and if you stick with it you will look fantastic in a few months.  But in the meantime, a little self-awareness goes a long way.

*Ironically, if you're stuck in Wisconsin like me, it's also the worst possible time to run outdoors.  Which eliminates the most appealing alternative.

New Rule: In order to save time, MTV must combine "True Life: I Still Live With My Parents" and "True Life: I'm A Virgin" into one show.
Let's be realistic here: the Venn Diagram of those two demographics are basically two circles on top of one another.  It's a recession, MTV.  We've all gotta make sacrifices.

(Point of information: yes, these have both aired.  More specifically, they were on back-to-back this afternoon.  MTV, if you did this on purpose, I salute you.  This stroke of subtle, intelligent humor almost redeems all of the shitty sequel-of-a-spinoff-of-a-spinoff-of-a-sequel-of-a-spinoff reality shows you are airing.  Wait, nevermind.  No it doesn't.  Forget I said anything.)

New Rule: If a defensive player grabs an offensive player's facemask, it is a 15 yard penalty and a first down, regardless of said offensive player fumbling the football.
Oh, wait, this one has been on the books for decades now?  I had no idea.

Pictured Above: Totally not a penalty or anything.

New Rule: One bad game does not make an entire defensive scheme useless.
A friend and I have had a season-long argument about the merits of the 4-3 vs. the 3-4.  After this past weekend, he is claiming victory in the name of the 4-3.  Nevermind that the team had the #1 rush defense, #5 pass defense, and #2 overall defense in the NFL this season (up from 26, 12, and 20 respectively)--on the basis that our 3-4 got shredded in one game, it is obviously inferior.

Addendum to an Old Rule: Never, ever, back a crappy QB on the road in the playoffs--unless he can be significantly hidden by the game plan.
If history has shown us anything, it's that crappy quarterbacks become infinitely crappier on unfriendly turf in the playoffs--the stage, the pressure, the unfriendly crowd, and the lack of self-confidence combine to cave in and blow the game.  Need proof?  Tarvaris Jackson vs. Philly in '08 (the fact that he's Tarvaris Jackson undoes any possible home-field advantage the Vikings might have enjoyed), Todd Collins at Seattle in '07, Trent Green at Indy in '06, Chad Pennington in New England in '06, Byron Leftwich in New England in '05, or Mark Brunell in Seattle in '05.

So how did two teams with crappy QBs pull off first-round road wins?  By running the ball, stuffing the other offense, and making their respective weak link behind center a non-factor--the same formula that allowed Baltimore to win a Super Bowl despite the arm of Trent Dilfer.

New Rule: NBC has to reinstate Conan O'Brien to his 11:35 time slot.
Look, you got what you wanted.  The Tonight Show's ratings are climbing back up.  People are talking about you.  "Conan on the Tonight Show" is buzz-worthy again.  So why not stick with it and see what happens?

On the one hand, this makes sense--and the idea that NBC started this controversy for the sole reason of generating buzz seems both plausible and genius.  On the other hand, Dick Ebersol appears to be done with Conan.  So who knows.

At any rate, on to the picks.

N'AWLINS (-7) over Arizona
Here's the million dollar question: how is Drew Brees still alive today?  How did he not die of a heart attack Saturday night, watching Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner put up a combined 778 passing yards and 96 points, the whole time thinking one thing: I get to face one of these defenses next week.  The ceiling is officially removed for Brees this week--you could tell me you traveled back in time from Tuesday, and he threw for 550 yards and 7 scores, and I wouldn't even blink.

INDY (-6.5) over Baltimore
Here, we come back to my Updated Rule.  If Baltimore can run over the Colts' D, get out ahead, and take the game out of Flacco's hands, they've got a shot.  But what do you find more likely?
Scenario 1: Manning lights up a slightly suspect Ravens pass defense, takes the lead, and B-more has to play from behind with a potentially dry-heaving Flacco.
Scenario 2: Peyton Manning fails to move the ball at will, something that hasn't happened in over a year.

That's what I thought.

Dallas (+2.5) over MINNESOTA
If "picking Wade Phillips and Tony Romo in the playoffs" is like having a headache, "picking Brad Childress and Brett Favre in the playoffs" is like shooting yourself in the head to cure that headache.  Too many question marks on this Viking soap opera team for me to confidently go with them.  Hard to believe they can just turn it back on for the playoffs after their tumultuous end to the season.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over NY Jets
Look at everything that I said for the Baltimore-Indy matchup.  Does it hold steady here?  Not quite as forcefully, but the answer is still yes.  I think Phillip Rivers is good enough to figure out that the Jets have no answer for Antonio Gates.  I think the Jet run defense is essentially negated by the non-factor that LDT has become.  I think Sanchez has to make it happen at some point, and he can't.

Then again, everything I thought last week was wrong.  So take that information how you will.