If you weren't paying attention, yesterday's Part I can be found here. If you were, you know we've got 15 teams to go. And since we left off with the "Good Bad Team" that is better than all the bad teams but worse than all the good teams, well, today will revolve less around mocking the NFL's failures than it is figuring out who is going to take it all. More fun? Less fun? You decide.
Anywhoodlidoodle, here we go...
The Shitty Division Leaders Division
15. San Diego
Blatantly stolen from one of my Tweeps (and a hugely inspirational fellow young-curmudgeon-cum-blogger), Justin Rebello: "Whoever it was in the NY Times who called [the] Jets-Chargers game the 'No-Ring Circus" deserves a raise." The Chargers are the NFL's version of the old women's axiom: always a bridesmaid, never a bride. They're in the playoffs every year it seems, but always fall apart. Time was, this was because of Marty Schottenheimer. This year, it'll be because they're just not that great of a team, but they're stuck in a division with the Jamaal Charles-less Chiefs, the Jason Campbell-less Raiders, and the Mile High Train Wreck. I'd feel bad for Phil Rivers at this point if everything I've read about him didn't have me convinced that he was a colossal spoiled douche.
14. Houston
"An all-Texas Super Bowl... sweet Jethro Pugh"--Hank Hill
Yeah, that's not happening this year. The Texans are 2-3 against teams not trying to Suck for Luck. But they do have impressive wins over Pittsburgh and a shellacking of Tennessee. Translation? Like every year, the Texans are a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a mystery--not to mention a gambler's nightmare. Inconsistency is not a great quality come playoff time, though. They'll get in on account of their division sucks--what happens beyond that is anyone's guess.
(And yes, I'm aware that I just reverse-jinxed us up a guarantee of an all-Texas Super Bowl. The Cowboys are in a division without a clear favorite, and the Texans would really need to try hard to piss away their division. Then again... Romo in New Orleans or Green Bay. It's not happening. Houston, I could see getting hot come January and making a run. But Romo on the road against one of those teams--I couldn't bet enough against him.)
The Gary Johnson Memorial "Fringe Candidate" Division
13. NY Jets
Since Ron Paul is now polling in the double digits, Gary Johnson takes over as the 2012 version of "Presidential candidate who I like, but has a less than zero chance of winning." Similarly, I like the Jets. I like Rex Ryan, creepy foot fetish and all. I like Bart Scott, who I think is the next-gen version of Ray Lewis. I have had an affinity for LDT ever since he carried me to two straight Fantasy championship games, and I love how he's reinvented himself as a top-of-the-line scat back. But, I'm sorry--Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene are not winning a title anytime soon. Just sayin'.
12. Tampa Bay
Sorry, Saints fans--but the coming decade of Josh Freeman-Matty Ice-Cam Newton divisional rivalry has me excited. Josh might be fighting through the sophomore jinx right now, but he'll bounce back. This year, the Bucs fall into the same category as the Texans--unpredictable enough that they might beat the Saints, or lay an egg against the Bears. The only problem? The Texans are in a shitty division, in which "inconsistently great" is far and away the favorite. The 'Bucs are in a division with the Falcons and Saints. "Inconsistent" just doesn't cut it.
11. Atlanta
They get the nod over Tampa for this spot largely thanks to strength of schedule--already 4-3, the Falcons are looking at 5 near-guaranteed wins (Indy, Tenn, Minn, Car, Jax) the rest of the way. And the Texans and Bucs are both winnable games. Ten wins is hardly a stretch for them. Tampa, on the other hand? They get Tennessee, Carolina twice, and Jacksonville--then toss-ups against the Falcons, Texans, and Cowboys. You're telling me the Dirty Birds aren't a game better?
10. NY Giants
Say what you will about Eli Manning (and, dear Lord, I have done just that in this space previously)--I'd much rather have the title of "Worst QB to ever win a Super Bowl" than "Best QB to never win a Super Bowl." Warrants mentioning.
The win over Buffalo was huge. But losing to Seattle?! And, let's be real--this coming showdown against Miami is the only guaranteed win on this team's plate the rest of the way. The NFC East is wide-open at this point. Just because the Blue Men are in the driver's seat now doesn't really mean anything.
The Entertaining As Hell Division
9. Baltimore
Put it this way: these guys were ranked at #4 until Monday night's debacle. Baltimore fans are praying that was merely an anomaly, and that this team is finally living up to the potential-dynasty hype I bestowed upon them two seasons ago. And not a sign of an impending collapse. Time will tell. In the meantime, they just lost to the Jaguars, so they'll take a free-fall in the polls.
8. Chicago
All of these teams fall under the following category: extremely fun to watch, more competent than average, probably playoff teams, but just missing the total package. Give me Matt Forte, and I'll put together a championship team. Give me Jay Cutler, and that championship team will putter out in the divisional/conference round. For years now, I've been making the Jay Cutler-Jeff George comparison--just now, I realized that Marshall Faulk-Matt Forte is just as valid. Creepy. Let's hope that the Bears aren't within a decade of drafting their own Peyton Manning, much like the George-Faulk Colts in the early '90s.
7. Detroit
Jesus, what the hell happened? Two weeks ago, Green Bay-Detroit for Thanksgiving looked like the game of the decade. Now, the Lions have lost two straight, Matty Stafford's ankle is giving him trouble, Jahvid Best appears to be out for the year, and Jerome Harrison has a brain tumor. Just a brutal turn of events. On the bright side--Calvin Johnson is still unstoppable, and the Lions are still five wins better than they were a few years ago.
6. Buffalo
I'm still trying to figure out how these guys beat New England. Don't get me wrong--Stevie Johnson has emerged as a top-10 wideout, the entire league is kicking themselves for not picking up on Fred Jackson first, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is the next generation of "game manager" quarterback who makes good decisions, uses the talent around him, and doesn't fuck things up. Perfect fit for this team. The Buffalo fans deserve a playoff team, and I really hope they can hold on and get it this year. Miami twice, Washington, Tennessee, and Denver might be enough to get them there--but they might need to knock a few other ones out, too.
The Dark Horse Division
5. San Francisco
Eerily reminiscent of the '06 Bears. A prototypical "everything but the dining room" team. As Bill Simmons explained it:
"OK, let's say you just bought a new house, only you got soaked on your mortgage and had to go with a 75-25 instead of an 80-20. You're short on funds, so you decide, 'We're going to spend most of our time in the kitchen, TV room and bedroom' and spend all your remaining funds to make those rooms nice: Maybe a 52-inch plasma, comfy sofa, kitchen table, king-sized bed, a few framed pictures, some homey knick-knacks and so on. By the time you're done, every room in the house looks great except for the dining room. Instead of half-assing it and putting a cheap-looking table and chairs in there, or even worse, splurging on a nice table and crappy chairs, you decided to sacrifice that room for 12 months, leave it empty and use that extra money on the rest of the house. It's the right move. And when friends visit and see an empty dining room, you just explain, 'Yeah, we haven't gotten around to that room yet.' They will understand, especially when they see the rest of your kick-ass house."
Aside from the fact that the hypothetical person who got soaked on their mortgage and couldn't afford to furnish their whole house is probably foreclosed and living in Mommy's basement by now, this is the Niners to a T. They've got a big-game runner in Frank Gore. They've got a suffocating D. They've got a rookie coach who ran shit at the college level, and appears to be one of the "runs shit at every level" coaches as opposed to the Pete Carroll variety of "runs shit as long as I can pay my players and nobody else can" type. In a down year, they'd be a favorite. In this NFL? Sorry, but the Empty Dining Room (Alex Smith's new nickname) is enough to drag them down to the 5th spot in the Parade of Homes.
(Like how I carried the dining room analogy at least three jokes longer than I should have? That's what happens when I write these things drunk. Just bear with me here, we're almost done and I'm still somewhat cohesive. Or coherent. Whatever.)
4. Pittsburgh
With a team like this, you have to ignore the Week 1 shellacking at the hands of Baltimore. Maybe it was the lockout, maybe it was the Week One jitters--the point is, we've seen six other examples, and that was not this team. This weekend's matchup with New England will tell us a lot about this team.
(And let's be real--this right here is probably the biggest gap in the poll. From 3-4 is a massive chasm. Maybe that's because Baltimore was supposed to go here until they shat the bed on Monday. But when your 4th best team in the NFL is coming into a "time to prove ourselves" game, well, that's not an encouraging sign for the rest of the league.
3. New Orleans
Does anyone actually remember that these guys blew a winnable game against Tampa just a little over a week ago? No, all I can think of is the revolving door endzone defense the Colts tried to employ Sunday night. Setting an NFL regular-season record for points tends to shorten the memory when it comes to things like that.
The Number One Contender
2. New England
We've been waiting for a New England-Green Bay Super Bowl ever since 2008. Which, of course, means that something will inevitably screw it up. I'm sorry to say, Bill Belichek isn't the same coach he once was. Is he going senile? Maybe just a little bit.
That being said, this team is stacked. I'm not betting against them, that's for sure.
The Potential Dynasty
1. Green Bay
Look, I'm well aware that there may very well come a day where I look at this ranking, and that title, and cry myself to sleep. It can happen. But at this point? Last unbeaten team in the league? With arguably the best big-game quarterback since Montana in his prime? With four--count 'em four--guys who could be a #1 receiver on another team? With a winning streak stretching back to last December? With Charles Woodson preying on young quarterbacks much like Roman Polanski once preyed on young girls? With the Kuhn And Friends backfield providing the perfect supplement to Rodgers' passing attack? I refuse to apologize for this pick, and I refuse to acknowledge anyone who claims that this makes me a homer. Best team in the league right now? You know it.
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